Brent rises 1.32% to $65 as drone strike halts 260,000bpd Russian refinery

By Grace Edet

Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out one of Russia’s largest refineries, disrupting 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) of processing capacity and raising fresh concerns over global supply stability as winter demand builds.
Brent crude was up 1.32 per cent at $65.05 per barrel at 9:00 WAT, with analysts warning that the outage could trigger further price increases in the coming days.
The Ryazan refinery, Russia’s fourth-largest and operated by Rosneft, has now been hit twice in less than a month as Ukraine escalates its long-range strike campaign. The latest attack halted the plant’s main crude distillation unit, which accounts for roughly 5 per y of Russia’s total refining capacity.
Industry sources told reporters that the refinery will remain shut until at least December 1, adding that “no product deliveries are expected before then,” while several secondary units have also been idled.

Prices Mixed Across the Energy Market

While Brent gained, WTI held steady at $60.90 per barrel, showing no change. Murban crude ticked up by 1.06 per cent to $66.46, whereas natural gas slipped 0.16 per cent to $4.368. Analysts say the muted price response masks rising anxiety beneath the surface.
“Market sentiment has turned cautious. If these outages persist or Moscow’s infrastructure comes under renewed fire, the supply picture could tighten very quickly,” an energy expert, Mustapha Shuaid said.

Winter Demand Meets Heightened Geopolitical Risk

The attack comes at a sensitive period, with temperatures dropping across Europe and Asia. Energy markets typically enter a high-demand phase from late November, making geopolitical disruptions more consequential.
Ukraine’s strategy has increasingly shifted toward high-impact targets. According to the Centre for European Policy Analysis, Kyiv is now focusing on “high-value refinery equipment like cracking units — assets that are harder to replace and more disruptive when damaged.”
Recent strikes have also hit terminals and export routes, including the strategic Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea.

Market Braces for Upside Risk

Although front-month prices remain relatively stable, traders say the underlying risk of a significant price upturn is rising. The outage at Ryazan, combined with the threat of additional strikes, could squeeze Russian product exports and rattle global supply chains.
“The next few weeks will be pivotal. Any escalation could be enough to disrupt balances and trigger a price rally, with spillover inflation risks for energy-dependent economies,” another analyst, Akin Owolabi told TheTrustNews.com.
With the Ryazan plant offline and Russia’s refining network increasingly exposed, the oil market enters the winter season on a fragile footing.