Diesel falls to ₦979/L in Lagos

By Grace Edet

Diesel prices in Lagos have dropped below ₦1,000 per litre for the first time in months, offering rare relief to transport operators, manufacturers and SMEs.

Market checks on Tuesday showed rates as low as ₦979 per litre at Mobil Idowu Egba, ₦980 at NNPC Retail Igando and ₦995 at Petrocam Isheri, driven by stronger domestic supply and heightened competition among retailers.

But fresh cost indicators suggest the drop may be short-lived. New data from the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows diesel landing cost has climbed to ₦980.28 per litre, signalling pressure on retailers and raising the likelihood of a price rebound.

According to market analysts, the rising landing cost is being driven by firmer international prices, higher cargo premiums and renewed bulk purchases by major distributors seeking to replenish stock.

They warn that the current sub-₦1,000 pump prices do not reflect the cost realities facing importers.

Foreign exchange volatility is compounding the pressure. The naira traded between ₦1,430 and ₦1,450 to the dollar over the past week, creating uncertainty for fuel traders and affecting forward pricing.

New coastal pricing formulas tied to Platts benchmarks are also shaping expectations for higher replacement costs.

Analysts note that Dangote Refinery’s lack of any announced price reduction is another sign that the current relief may not last. Market behaviour suggests wholesalers may soon begin building inventories in anticipation of upward adjustments.

“Diesel may have dipped below ₦1,000, but all cost indicators point to a likely rebound. Rising landing costs and FX pressure will inevitably filter through the supply chain,” a Godfrey Olatunde, a Lagos-based energy analyst told TheTrustNews.com.

With cost drivers now trending upward, stakeholders warn that the modest price drop recorded this week may be temporary as the market prepares for another adjustment.