By Oluwayanmife Lucas

Economic policy group and economist yesterday lent their support to the federal government’s decision to implement a temporary fuel price relief. They warned that this relief should not be misconstrued as return of subsidy on petroleum products, but be seen as a priority by government to protect vulnerable citizens, preserve the sustainability of public finances and maintain the integrity of ongoing economic reforms.

Besides, they warned that the commercial status of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) Limited does not eliminate the government’s responsibility to respond to exceptional public-interest considerations.

NNPC Ltd., the group maintained, remains a government-owned commercial enterprise with a diversified portfolio of petroleum-related businesses, whose commercial mandate should ordinarily guide its operations. However, the policy group argued, temporary and clearly defined public-interest interventions can be accommodated within an appropriate governance framework.

The Group, Center for the promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), a policy and economic think-tank group, in a chat with The Trust News, argued that the critical consideration is that such interventions must be transparent, proportionate, time-bound and financially sustainable.

The CPPE further noted that the current global energy crisis demands pragmatic policy responses, not ideological rigidity. It further argued that although economic reforms must remain sustainable, but they must also be responsive to the welfare of the people.

Therefore, it explained, Nigeria does not need a return to the “fiscally destructive” subsidy regime, but a credible framework for temporary, targeted and transparent social protection during exceptional economic shocks.

Speaking with The Trust News, the Chief Executive Officer, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, explained that economic policies are instruments for promoting citizens’ welfare; hence, they should not become rigid doctrines that prevent governments from responding to exceptional social and economic difficulties.

He noted that the current escalation in petroleum product prices is driven principally by developments in the global energy market, particularly geopolitical tensions that have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. He described this as an “external shock affecting both oil-producing and oil-importing economies; it is neither a consequence of Nigeria’s subsidy removal policy nor peculiar to the Nigerian economy.”

Dr. Yusuf warned against the misconception that the Federal Government’s recent fuel price relief initiative through the NNPC is a reversal of the petroleum subsidy removal policy. Such an interpretation, he argued, is misleading and fails to distinguish between a fundamental policy reversal and a temporary intervention in response to an extraordinary economic shock.

“Extraordinary economic circumstances sometimes require exceptional policy responses. Governments across the world have historically intervened to cushion households and businesses against severe external shocks without abandoning their underlying economic policy frameworks. The COVID-19 pandemic provided compelling evidence of this approach, even in advanced market economies.

“The intervention is substantially different in scale, design and potential fiscal implications from the previous subsidy regime. Its temporary character and limited market coverage are important distinctions,” Dr. Yusuf said.

According to him, the removal of the previous petroleum subsidy was a necessary structural reform, therefore, reinstating a broad-based consumption subsidy would recreate serious fiscal vulnerabilities and undermine the gains from economic reforms.

He explained further: “For illustration, a subsidy of ₦1,000 per litre on national consumption of 50 million litres daily would create a fiscal exposure of approximately ₦50 billion daily; ₦1.5 trillion monthly and ₦18.25 trillion annually. Such an obligation would be fiscally unsustainable, especially in an economy facing substantial infrastructure deficits, debt-service commitments and competing development priorities. However, a limited and temporary intervention should not automatically be interpreted as a deterioration in policy credibility.”

Dr. Yusuf, an economist, explained that investors are principally concerned about policy predictability, market access, commercial viability, fiscal sustainability and the protection of legitimate investments. These fundamentals, he said, need not be compromised by a narrowly targeted emergency relief measure.

In this regard, the CPPE argued that there is a need to have a critical distinction between the previous subsidy regime and the current intervention. Under the former subsidy arrangement, Dr. Yusuf said, government effectively carried a substantial fiscal burden on nationwide petrol consumption, estimated at various times at between 50 million and 80 million litres daily. This arrangement created enormous fiscal pressures, weakened public finances, crowded out development spending and contributed to macroeconomic instability.

Citing an illustrative calculation based on the volumes contained in the ministerial commentary; by contrast, he said, the current intervention covers approximately 70 million litres of NNPC fuel supply monthly, compared with estimated national petrol consumption of 50 million litres daily and an estimated national monthly consumption of 1.5 billion litres; while NNPC monthly volume under the intervention will be 70 million litres, translating to an estimated national consumption of 4.7 per cent

“Arising from these figures, an intervention covering less than five per cent of estimated national consumption cannot reasonably be equated with a nationwide subsidy regime. More importantly, the intervention does not reinstate an administered national petrol price, impose a general subsidy obligation on private operators or dismantle the market-oriented framework for petroleum product pricing.

“The appropriate questions should therefore concern the fiscal cost, transparency, duration, beneficiaries and effectiveness of the intervention, rather than an inaccurate characterisation of it as a wholesale policy reversal,” Dr. Yusuf argued.

But beyond fuel discounts, the CPPE said there is a need to addressing the wider social costs. It said that while the proposed fuel price relief is a welcome development, its limited coverage means that its aggregate impact on household welfare will also be limited.
Government, the group further highlighted, should pursue broader interventions that address the principal channels through which the energy price shock affects citizens.

In a four-point agenda, the CPPE said the government should scale up affordable mass transit, because transportation is one of the most immediate transmission channels of higher energy prices to household expenditure and business operating costs. To this end, the group said the federal and state governments should prioritise high-capacity buses, including CNG, electric and other economically viable alternatives.

Support for agricultural productivity and food supply, strengthening state and local government interventions by way of states designating discounted fuel outlets, limited emergency fuel allocations for essential services, like subsidised public transport and targeted support for vulnerable households, should be considered, as well as protecting the integrity of petroleum market reforms.

“Government should sustain market-based pricing, fair competition, transparent regulation and a trade policy framework that supports domestic refining investment. Emergency interventions should not become a pretext for arbitrary price controls or the reintroduction of opaque fiscal obligations,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.

• Offers jobs to Lamu graduates, to train over 1,000 indigenes

• Reserves 30% equity for East African countries

• President Ruto projects 60,000 jobs, 1,000MW power

• Obasanjo, African leaders hail Dangote as industrialisation pathfinder

By Oluwayanmife Lucas

Africa’s drive for industrial self reliance received a major boost yesterday as Kenya President William Ruto and President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, joined African leaders to break ground on a $16 billion petroleum refinery and petrochemicals complex in Lamu, Kenya, designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day and serve markets across Eastern Africa.

The facility, which is expected to be delivered within 40 months, has an ambitious local content programme that will provide jobs for qualified Lamu graduates and train more than 1,000 young people from the county. Besides, 30 per cent equity in the 700,000 barrels per day refinery is being offered to East African countries, thereby opening the landmark project to regional ownership as part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security and retain more of Africa’s wealth within the continent.

According to Dangote, the project would be executed at speed, assuring the gathering that the refinery would be completed within 40 months. He said the company had already begun mobilising equipment and technical resources for the project and would draw extensively from lessons learnt in delivering the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos. He assured that the Kenyan refinery would be one of the fastest major projects undertaken by the Group, as the company seeks to demonstrate that African businesses can execute complex industrial projects at globally competitive scale and speed.

Dangote placed local participation at the heart of the project, announcing that qualified graduates from Lamu would be offered opportunities to work on the development, while more than 1,000 young people from the host communities would receive technical and vocational training to prepare them for jobs within the refinery and its emerging industrial ecosystem. The Group will establish a training school to develop the technical skills required by the refinery, with emphasis on equipping local young people to participate directly in construction and subsequent operations. Dangote said the objective was to ensure that the economic footprint of the investment extended well beyond the refinery.

“We want young Kenyans and East Africans with skills here. We want local businesses to become suppliers. We want entrepreneurs around this project,” he said. “For me, the true measure of this project will not be the height of these towers or the number of barrels it processes.”
Instead, he said its success would also be measured by young Kenyans acquiring engineering and technical skills, local entrepreneurs building businesses around the investment and communities enjoying improved livelihoods.

“Industrialisation must have a human face. It must create dignity. It must create jobs. It must create opportunities. It must create hope,” Dangote said.

President Ruto put the cost of the development at $16 billion, or about KSh2 trillion, describing it as a “generational undertaking” designed to serve not only Kenya but the wider Eastern African region. The project is designed to process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily and generate up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity. It will also include polypropylene and base oil production as part of an integrated refining and petrochemicals complex.

Ruto reinforced the employment commitment, saying current projections envisage about 60,000 direct and indirect jobs from the development. The President directed technical and vocational institutions and universities to prepare welders, technicians, engineers and managers for the opportunities, insisting that young people from Lamu and neighbouring communities must be given a fair opportunity to compete for the jobs. Ruto said the construction phase alone was expected to inject more than KSh2 billion monthly in wages into the economy, with the money circulating through shops, hotels, restaurants, transport, housing and other businesses.

In another significant move towards regional economic integration, Dangote disclosed that 30 per cent of the refinery’s equity would be made available to East African countries, allowing governments in the region to participate in the ownership and future value created by the project. He said Kenya and Rwanda had already moved quickly to take advantage of the opportunity. The ownership model fits into Dangote’s broader argument that African countries and investors should not merely host major industrial projects but should increasingly participate in their ownership and prosperity. Dangote said the refinery had been designed as a regional asset serving Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and other markets.

“This refinery is therefore not simply about one country. It is about a region,” he said.
The industrialist said Africa could no longer afford an economic model under which crude oil, minerals and agricultural commodities were exported while the continent imported the finished products derived from them.

“Africa cannot build lasting prosperity by exporting what it has and importing what it needs,” he said. “We must refine more of what we produce. We must process more of what we produce. We must retain more value here at home in Africa.”

The Governor of Lamu County, Issa Timamy also used the groundbreaking to condemn attempts to stop the project through litigation, describing those behind the move as working against an investment capable of transforming the economic fortunes of the county. Addressing residents partly in Swahili, the Governor said those who had gone to court against the development did not represent the aspirations of the people of Lamu. He argued that opponents of the project were seeking to frustrate an investment that could provide opportunities for thousands of young people and insisted that residents would not allow the county’s development prospects to be undermined.

The Governor maintained that the project would go ahead and be completed, while calling on young people and businesses in the county to prepare themselves for the opportunities that would accompany the investment. He said Lamu had for too long been rich in history, culture and natural resources but left behind in the march of development, adding that the refinery offered the county an opportunity to become a major investment and industrial destination.

He nevertheless stressed the importance of protecting Lamu’s mangroves, fishing grounds, coastline and cultural heritage, calling for responsible development that would allow industrialisation and environmental protection to coexist.

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo led other African leaders in celebrating Dangote’s emergence as one of the continent’s leading champions of industrialisation, recalling his evolution from trading and importation into large scale manufacturing. Obasanjo said the transformation demonstrated the importance of African governments creating the right environment for indigenous entrepreneurs to invest, manufacture and compete at scale. For the former President, the Lamu investment represented a further expansion of that industrialisation philosophy from West Africa into East Africa.

Obasanjo said he was particularly pleased to witness the project because of its potential to deepen economic integration between the two regions and demonstrate what African entrepreneurship, supported by purposeful political leadership, could accomplish. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said Africa could not continue exporting raw materials while surrendering the jobs and wealth associated with processing them elsewhere. He backed the regional ownership proposal, describing the opportunity for East African countries to acquire equity in the refinery as a smart approach to ensuring that the region participated not merely as a market but also as an owner.
Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, said the refinery would strengthen East Africa’s energy security and reduce its vulnerability to disruptions in global petroleum markets.

He said Dangote’s record in cement, fertiliser and petroleum refining had demonstrated that African industrial enterprises could operate at global scale. “East Africa is not only a market. It is a place to produce, to build and to create value,” Abiy said.

• Sustains Naira for crude supply to Dangote

• Remittance to government hits N22.3tr

• Refineries to operate when profitable

By Oluwayanmife Lucas

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has posted N7.2trillion Profit After Tax (PAT), rising 33 per cent in 2025 from the N5.4 trillion recorded in 2024.

The state-run oil company also said payment of Naira for crude oil supply to Dangote Refinery is still in force.

During the period under review, revenue was N34.5 trillion as earnings per share was N35.9 while royalties and other remittances to the government soared 39 per cent to N22.3 trillion.
Its Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) Bashir Bayo Ojulari disclosed this at the 2025 Audited Financial Statement Media Parley in Abuja.
He said: “The central result is clear, profit after tax rose 33 per cent, from N5.4 trillion in 2024 to 7.2 trillion Naira in 2025.

“Revenue was N34.5 trillion. We also recorded earnings per share of 35.9 Naira, while taxes, royalties and other remittances to the government rose 39 per cent to N22.3 trillion.”

The GCEO blamed revenue decline on the crude oil price crash in the period under review.
Ojulari said: “The revenue declined as crude oil price fell, as you recall, in 2025, but we also had some decline that resulted from wide product volume reduction, following the market regulation, as you know, with the removal of subsidy.”

Continuing, the NNPCL boss said the profit grew because the firm improved the way it operated and maintained discipline across its businesses.
Ojulari also attributed the profit to the blockage of revenue leakages and the stoppage of wastages. Operationally, according to him, crude oil and condensate production reached a five-year high of 1.77 million barrels per day (bpd) at its peak.

Nigerian gas supply, said Ojulari, reached a three-year high of 7.2 billion standard cubic feet per day.
He explained that the gains reflect sustained attention to company assets, infrastructure and focus on delivering visible results.

He promised to compel all NNPC debtors to settle their liabilities.

The GCEO said the national refineries will become operational when they are profitable.
He said through NNPCL technical equity partnership model significant progress has been made.
Ojulari said NNPC has undertaken a three-month intrusive onsite due diligence with over 34 of the partners’ top engineers as it now looks forward to completing the report with the same objective of having profitable and sustainable plants.

He said: “And we are now looking at concluding that report. And the objective remains the same.
“What we want going forward is to have a refinery that is self-sustaining, that is profitable and is sustainable. And that’s what we’re looking for. We believe that in the not too distant future, we will be able to define that pathway forward.

“We learned a lot through those onsite visits. And I think we are more confident that we will have a pathway very soon in terms of how to bring those refineries back to sustainable and profitable operation. Our ambitions are specific and measurable.”

He said the partners, who are Chinese, are reviewing the refineries at no cost to Nigeria.
The model is to involve them in the equity of the refineries for them to be committed with the spirit of ownership.
He recalled that he visited China where he toured their petrochemicals plants that operate at 100 per of their design capacity.

The NNPCL boss announced that the Ajaokuta Kaduna Kano (AKK) gas pipeline has been completed with all the weldings.

He revealed that the project is at the stage of fixing the connections at Abuja, Ajaokuta and Kaduna.

He stressed that the main line has been done as NNPCL is now focusing on the impact of the project on the society.

Ojulari added: “The impact starts when gas starts going to power or going into the industry. “And that is why you probably notice we have been a little bit quiet recently because the next milestone is to say gas is flowing and we are seeing gas transmitting into more jobs, more opportunities.”

The GCEO also revealed that the OB3 line, that is the Obiapu, Obiropo and Oben gas pipeline has been grappling with a lot of challenges over several years.

According to him, NNPCL is yet to fix a timeline for its Initial Public Offer (IPO) as the decision is at the instance of the shareholders.
On how to achieve 3million barrels per day in 2030, he recalled that this year, NNPCL signed a new $15 billion to $21 billion Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for Bonga Southwest that is meant to enable final investment in decisions maybe by 2028.

He also cited an example of the Bonga North FID in late 2024 among other projects that would result in the attainment of 3 million barrels per day production.

Speaking on the Naira for crude supply to Dangote, Ojulari said: “Crude supply obligation to Dangote team, yes, still going on. We still deliver the crude in naira and then crude in dollar.”
He added that the arrangement for the supply of crude oil in Naira is for limited cargoes.
Ojulari stressed that NNPCL also supplies extra cargo to the refinery in dollars
“And let me also explain that, very important, because I know a lot of questions have come. We have a commitment to supply crude in naira, for a specific number of cargoes, typically. But also the extra crude that is available, we only supply in dollar,” he said.

Ojulari also explained that crude oil is sold in dollars because all the contracts in the industry are in dollars.

The NNPCL boss said: “The reason for that is that our commitments are in dollar. The rigs that are drilling for us, we pay them in dollars. The projects that we install, we pay in dollars.”
According to him, it does not make sense selling crude oil in Naira to purchase forex to pay in dollars instead of selling it directly in the same currency it is vended internationally.
NNPCL accepts Naira for crude from Dangote because the Federal Government approved it, he said.
Aside from that approval, Ojulari stressed that all other crude oil transactions are in dollars.

He said: “Our cash home to our operators are paid in dollars. So there’s no point receiving naira and then going to send that bank or somewhere to then buy dollar to pay, right?

“So that is the reason that you see that apart from the crude to naira, which was approved by federal government, we maintain that, right?

“For all the other transactions we do are in dollar because our commitments are in dollar as well. So that’s why, otherwise, we would have probably done more, right?

“But what it would mean is that we would do that and then go and buy dollar to pay for our own commitments.”

The GCEO said the cost of crude oil production responds in direct proportion with the rise its price.
Ojulari also confirmed that Nigeria is still servicing the project Gazelle, which is the crude oil backed forward -sale finance facility.
“I think the other quick one is around, you talked about Project Gazelle, and specifically Project Gazelle is still on.”