OPEC+ opts to retains oil production in October, as prices continue rising

By Oluwayanmife Lucas, with agency reports

OPEC+ members yesterday at a virtual meeting agreed to keep oil production steady in October. This decision thus puts a stoppage to a six-month run of output increases as the group shifts its focus to determining new production quotas for 2027.

In a press statement uploaded on OPEC website shortly after the meeting, it noted that the producers agreed to have OPEC+ keep its oil output policy unchanged for ‌October as the producer group needs to agree new quotas before deciding its next output steps.

The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, ​Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — comes as the Iran war continues to ​disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+’s influence over prices ⁠and market share.

The pause comes as the war with Iran continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the ability of OPEC+ supply decisions to influence crude prices and the group’s market share.

Meanwhile oil prices continue its upward surge wit Brent yesterday selling at $96.28 and West Texas Intermediate selling at $91.48 respectively per barrel.

In August, OPEC+ agreed its production boost for September, completing a phased rollback ​of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Despite the agreed production increases, ​the group made up of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still produces far below its targets because of the war.

“OPEC+ currently has ​very limited power over the physical oil market. The group ​can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or ‌actually ⁠reach the market. The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy.

OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. Before the group decides ​how to unwind the ​cuts and return production ⁠to the market, it needs to review members’ oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.

According to sources who spoke to Reuters, this ​debate will likely happen later in 2026 and hence OPEC+ is ​likely to pause ⁠its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources earlier told Reuters.

Actual production remains well below the group’s targets amid the war and disruptions to regional oil flows. The gap means previously announced increases have had a more limited effect on physical supply than the headline quotas suggest.

The 21-member alliance, which includes the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, still has another layer of production cuts scheduled to remain in place through the end of 2026.

Before deciding how quickly those remaining cuts can be unwound, members need to review their production capacity and establish new 2027 output baselines. Those baselines are critical because they determine the individual production quotas allocated to members.

Discussions over the new baselines are expected later this year, making a pause in output increases during the fourth quarter increasingly likely.

The expected decision also comes at an unusual time for the producer alliance. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupting exports, the amount of crude reaching global markets is being shaped more heavily by wartime shipping constraints than by adjustments to OPEC+ production targets.

That has limited the group’s traditional ability to manage supply and influence prices through coordinated output changes.

The seven countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation.