OPEC+ raises production by 137,000 bpd

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries+ (OPEC+) agreed to raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), opting for the same fairly modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut. The group comprising the OPEC plus Russia and some smaller producers has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5 per cent of global demand.
At the virtual meeting yesterday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability on current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook and adjust production.
The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually yesterday to review global market conditions and outlook.
Available outcome of the meeting uploaded on the OPEC website shortly after the meeting and monitored by The Trust News, indicated that in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.
This adjustment will be implemented in November 2025. The 1.65 mbpd may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner. The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 mbpd announced in November 2023.
The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation. The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on 2 November 2025.
Brent prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, as most analysts predict a supply glut in the fourth quarter and in 2026 due to slower demand and rising U.S. supply. Prices are trading below this year’s peaks of $82 per barrel but above $60 per barrel seen in May.
In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, had different views. Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure – 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively – because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly.
OPEC views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals as healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on yesterday.
Consequently, it is expected that oil prices may rise today by up to $1 per barrel as the November production increase turned out to be modest.
“OPEC+ stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become … The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment,” said Rystad Energy said analyst, Jorge Leon.
OPEC+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group.
The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts – 2.2 million bpd – by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd.
The eight producers will meet again on November 2, 2025.