Energy
Why stable power supply may remain elusive
• Over 60% of power plants unavailable for transmission in Q3 2025, says report
• Report exposes Discos culpability
• NERC may sanction erring entities
The state of electricity supply in the country has become a source of concern for residents. After enjoying a relative supply for some parts of last year, especially in the second quarter, drawing applause from consumers, the euphoria that greeted this has gradually becoming worrisome.
These concerns were more pronounced during the last yuletide, when several homes were left in the dark. The situation, electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) often explain, results from national grid collapses, low power generation, gas supply shortages, or maintenance work by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). These issues, alongside infrastructure decay and vandalism, invariably leads to load shedding and intermittent supply.
Top officials of some Discos spoken to who pleaded for anonymity attributed power failures to a mix of upstream generation deficits, national grid instability and localised infrastructure challenges.
For a long time, there has been several horse-trading associated across the value chain over erratic power supply. For instance, it is common for DisCos often cite “system-wide disturbances” or “grid collapses” from the National Control Centre (NCC) as the reason for total outages across their franchise areas. Besides, many outages are blamed on “gas limitations” at thermal power plants and a general drop in power generation. This is because when generation drops, the energy allocated to DisCos decreases, forcing them to implement load shedding.
In situations like this, most hide under the guise of the feeder banding system. Under this framework, priority is given to “Band A” feeders, which are mandated to receive 20+ hours of supply thereby often leaving lower bands with significant outages when total available power is low.
Yet, is the technical faults and maintenance of equipment, equipment vandalism like destruction of transformers and theft of cables; planned maintenance, like upgrading or repairing transmission lines, are also factor readily given as excuses by service providers.
After enjoying relative stability in national grid in 2025, the facility experienced a first major collapse at the weekend caused by the simultaneous tripping of multiple 330kV transmission lines.
With this incident coming early in the year, stakeholders are worried that it may not be a good omen for the sector notwithstanding the several assurances by government. In 2024, 12 grid collapses were recorded; 12 in 2025 and one already recorded this year.
More worrisome is that the epileptic power supply has remained irrespective of the fiscal appropriation to the sector under the President Bola Tinubu administration.
A cursory look at these allocation indicate that in the last three years, there has been a consistent increase in fiscal allocation to the Ministry of Power aimed at resolving the underlying issues that have consistently impeded growth in the sector, including the consistent grid collapses each year.

A breakdown of the figures the three years showed that the power ministry got a cumulative allocation of N239.5 billion in 2023; N344.097 billion in 2024; N2.1 trillion in the 2025 budget, a clear indication of the priority placed on the sector by the current administration.
A further breakdown of the figures show that the power sector recovery programme received N810 billion from the budget; special intervention project got N269.74 billion, while the presidential power initiative (PPI) transmission project received N150 billion, all in an attempt to tackle the enormous challenges in the nation’s power sector from specific and targeted approach.
The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, assured that the ministry has set the agenda for Nigeria’s power sector in the year 2026, suggesting that the country has done enough to stabilise its grid in the previous year.
But these challenges appear unresolved despite huge budgetary allocations to the power sector. Giving more insight into what may be the cause of the deep-seated challenges confronting the country’s electricity supply is a recent report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) for the third quarter of 2025. The report, released recently, indicated that over 60 per cent of power plants installed generation capacity in the country remained unavailable for transmission to the national grid in the third quarter of 2025.
According to the NERC report, the average Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of all 28 grid-connected power plants stood at 39.86 per cent, meaning that 60.14 per cent of installed capacity could not be dispatched to the national grid at any point during the quarter. The figure represents only a 0.26 percentage-point increase from the 39.60 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, highlighting how limited progress has been in improving the operational readiness of generation assets.
“In 2025/Q3, the average plant availability factor for all grid-connected plants was 39.86 per cent, that is, at any point in time during the quarter, 60.14 per cent of the installed capacity across the 28 grid-connected power plants was not available for dispatch onto the grid,” the report read.
The PAF measures the ratio of a power plant’s declared available capacity to its manufacturer-rated installed capacity and is widely regarded by regulators as a key indicator of the health of the upstream segment of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).
It further noted that while 11 power plants recorded availability above 50 per cent, Ikeja Power Plant (Unit 1) emerged as the best-performing asset, posting a PAF of 99.24 per cent during the quarter. At the lower end, Sapele Steam Plant (Unit 1) recorded a PAF of just 2.66 per cent, while Alaoji Power Plant (Unit 1) failed to dispatch any electricity at all throughout the quarter.
Significantly quarter-on-quarter improvements were recorded at Dadin-Kowa (+41.32pp), Zungeru (+33.29pp) and Okpai (+15.95pp), reflecting gains from improved hydrology and reduced outages.
However, availability declined sharply at Ihovbor (Unit 2), which fell by 19.21 percentage points to 78.16 per cent, down from 97.38 per cent in Q2. Other plants that recorded notable drops included Geregu (Unit 1), Ibom Power, and Geregu (Unit 2).
“Overall, 11 power plants had availability factors above 50 per cent, with Ikeja_1 power plant recording the highest availability factor at 99.24 per cent. On the other end of the spectrum, Sapele Steam_1 recorded a PAF of 2.66 per cent in 2025/Q3. Alaoji_1 power plant was not available to dispatch any energy onto the grid throughout the quarter.
“Significant increases in PAF were recorded in Dadin-Kowa_1 (+41.32pp), Zungeru_1 (+33.29pp), and Okpai_1 (+15.95pp) power plants across the two quarters. Conversely, the PAF of Ihovbor_2 decreased significantly by 19.21pp during the quarter (78.16 per cent in 2025/Q3 compared to 97.38 per cent in 2025/Q2). Reductions in PAF were also recorded in Geregu_1 (- 12.79pp), Ibom power_1 (-10.34pp), and Geregu_2 (-8.41pp) power plants,” the NERC report said.
The commission attributed the fluctuations in plant availability to mechanical outages, feedstock constraints, hydrological conditions and operational limitations, factors that have continued to undermine Nigeria’s generation capacity for over a decade.
Beyond generation challenges, the report also highlighted weak energy offtake by electricity Discos, raising concerns over revenue recovery and market discipline. Under the Partial Activation of Contract regime, which came into force in July 2022, DisCos are required to off-take and pay for their Partially Contracted Capacity on a take-or-pay basis, even if they fail to utilise the power.
In Q3 2025, average energy offtake by DisCos fell to 3,328.33 megawatt-hours per hour, representing a 7.10 per cent decline from 3,582.62MWh/h recorded in the preceding quarter.
This decline occurred despite the fact that available contracted capacity dropped by only 2.43 per cent, suggesting that generation and transmission availability were sufficient to sustain previous offtake levels.
Overall, cumulative DisCo energy offtake performance during the quarter stood at 87.39 per cent, down from 91.78 per cent in Q2, a 4.39 percentage-point decline.
“All DisCos except Jos recorded a decline in their energy offtake performance during the quarter,” the report noted.
The commission attributed the reduced offtake to a combination of infrastructure weaknesses, seasonal demand changes and commercial considerations.
It noted that frequent network outages during the rainy season, driven by fragile distribution infrastructure, limited the ability of DisCos to evacuate power to customers.
In addition, cooler weather conditions reduced domestic electricity demand, while some DisCos deliberately constrained supply to loss-prone feeders to minimise financial exposure.
Under the Performance Monitoring Framework Orders issued in July 2024, DisCos are required to off-take at least 95 per cent of their available PCC or face regulatory sanctions.
However, in Q3 2025, only Benin and Port Harcourt DisCos met the threshold, with offtake levels of 99.20 per cent and 95.65 per cent, respectively.
The remaining nine DisCos, Abuja, Eko, Enugu, Ibadan, Ikeja, Jos, Kaduna, Kano and Yola, fell short, with Kaduna DisCo recording the lowest performance at 75.23 per cent.
“The Commission has commenced the implementation of appropriate sanctions against defaulting DisCos,” the report stated.
The figures reflect the persistent mismatch between installed capacity, available generation, and effective electricity delivery, a challenge that continues to frustrate households and businesses.
Despite Nigeria’s installed generation capacity exceeding 13,000 megawatts, average operational availability and weak offtake mean that actual electricity delivered to consumers remains far below demand, reinforcing dependence on self-generation and driving up energy costs.
Energy
Nigeria’s oil production hits 1.67mbpd in July
• Surpasses OPEC quota for third consecutive
By Oluwayanmife Lucas
For the third consecutive month, Nigeria has sustained exceeding her Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) allocated crude oil quoted of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was contained in the latest statistics from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released yesterday.
According to the data, in the month of July, the country produced 1.505mbpd of crude oil and 0.17mbpd of condensate, bringing the combined daily production to 1.67mbpd. In this period, the daily peak production of crude oil and condensate was 1.78mbpd while the lowest daily production was 1.57mbpd.
A breakdown of the daily average crude oil and condensate production by terminals/streams during the review month shows that Forcados Terminal accounted for 322.34kbpd while Bonny Terminal accounted for 303.72kbpd while Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average production of 158.02kbpd of crude oil and condensates while Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 131.41kbpd. Bonga ranked as the fifth highest producing terminal, recording an average of 100.23kbpd of crude oil.
Although Nigeria met its OPEC quota in the month of July, the statistics show that on a month on month basis, production fell by four per cent. This, the Commission, in a statement signed by its Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, attributed the decline in production to operational challenges experienced at the Erha and Akpofields, which impacted production output during the period under review.
“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output. But despite the challenges encountered, production operations across other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures aimed at maintaining production efficiency and minimizing the impact of operational constraints. Routine production activities and crude evacuation operations were largely sustained across the sector,” the statement said.
The sustained increase represents a buoy for the country’s 2.2mbpd production output target by end of 2026. This, if attained, will support the national budget viability, which bodies like the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) said remains critical for stabilising government revenue and foreign exchange. The NUPRC said the July outcome underscores the importance of proactive asset management, operational resilience, and timely intervention in mitigating production disruptions within the Nigerian upstream petroleum industry.
It added that industry stakeholders remain focused on addressing the identified operational issues, restoring affected production capacity and strengthening asset reliability to support improved performance in subsequent months.
The sustained production output by the country has also contributed to OPEC+ boost in its output. In the month of July, the organisation recorded an increase in her oil production soared by 1.17mbpd from its June figure.
Still, in January and May, Nigeria contributed 1.53mbpd respectively to OPEC+ representing 102 per cent compliance. However, in February, March and April, the country failed to meet the quota allocation contributing 1.40mbpd or 93 per cent compliance; 1.38mbpd or 92 per cent compliance and 1.48 mbpd or 99 per cent compliance respectively to OPEC+.
Energy
Sahara Upstream deepens investment in African oilfield services
• Positions Arahas and SGIR for Next Phase of Growth
By Temitayo Lucas
Sahara Upstream is accelerating the next phase of its oilfield services strategy, strengthening Arahas Global Oilfield Services (Arahas) and SGIR Rigs and Energy Limited as integrated platforms designed to support growing demand for world-class upstream services across Africa.
As part of this strategic direction, Sahara has appointed Gopi Nath as Director, Oilfield Services, with responsibility for providing strategic oversight for both businesses as they drive operational integration, expand service capabilities, and deliver greater value across the upstream value chain.
Speaking on the appointment, Executive Director, Sahara Upstream, Ade Odunsi, said the next phase of growth for Africa’s upstream industry will depend on strong regional service companies with the capability to execute increasingly complex projects safely, efficiently, and sustainably. Besides, he explained that the development reflects the firm’s continued investment in building indigenous oilfield services capacity capable of supporting Africa’s evolving energy landscape through engineering excellence, operational reliability, innovation and sustainable execution.
“Building resilient energy systems requires equally resilient service businesses. Arahas and SGIR are strategically positioned to deliver the technical expertise, operational excellence, and customer-focused solutions required by operators across the continent. Gopi’s appointment strengthens our ability to accelerate that ambition,” Odunsi said.
He noted that Sahara continues to invest in businesses that create long-term value across Africa’s energy sector. “Our objective is not simply to grow two businesses. We are building integrated service platforms capable of supporting exploration, drilling, engineering, project delivery, and production operations at a standard that competes globally while remaining rooted in Africa,” he added.
Commenting on his appointment, Nath said Sahara has built strong foundations for creating one of Africa’s leading oilfield services platforms.
“This is an exciting period for Sahara’s oilfield services business. We have exceptional talent, established capabilities, and a clear strategic direction. My focus will be on strengthening collaboration across Arahas and SGIR, enhancing customer value, driving execution excellence, and expanding our service offerings to meet the evolving needs of Africa’s energy industry,” he said, assuring that the businesses would continue setting new benchmarks for safety, innovation, operational performance, and stakeholder value while supporting sustainable energy development across the continent.
Nath further noted that Arahas was established to deliver high-impact oilfield services anchored on engineering excellence, operational reliability, innovation, and sustainability, while SGIR provides drilling, engineering, project execution, and field support services that enhance operational efficiency across upstream operations.
“Together, both businesses form a critical component of Sahara Upstream’s long-term strategy to strengthen local capacity, improve execution, and provide integrated solutions across the upstream value chain,” he concluded.
Energy
DSCO: 53.7mb of crude supplied in Q2 2026
• Dangote Refinery tops with 52.6mb
By Oluwayanmife Lucas
A total of 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refiners between April and June, under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO). The figure translates to an overall performance of 97.4 per cent for the second quarter (Q2) of 2026.
The Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) is a statutory requirement under Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021. It compels upstream oil producers to allocate a specific portion of their crude oil production to local, licensed refineries before they can export the rest. This policy aims to guarantee energy security, reduce heavy reliance on imported petroleum products and shield the domestic economy from foreign exchange volatility.
This was contained in the latest report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on the enforcement of the DCSO in accordance with the provisions of Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). In line with the PIA, the framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which shapes eventual outcomes.
In the period under review, on refinery supply basis, he report showed that the Dangote Refinery, which required 63 million barrels in Q2, was offered higher volumes of 68.1 million barrels by the producers. The 68.1 million barrels offered to the Dangote Refinery by producers, the report said, represents 98 per cent of all offered volumes. Dangote Refinery however accepted 52.6 million barrels, representing 78 per cent of the quantity offered her.
The remaining 1.1 million barrels of crude oil supplied were shared by Aradel, Waltersmith, Edo, and another refinery.
According to the report, in the month of April, following consultations with stakeholders, 18, 127, 638 barrels were allocated to producers. It noted that the producers exceeded expectation, offering19, 312, 476 barrels to refiners. Eventually, 20, 879, 381 barrels were supplied to local refiners, meaning the producers met 114.9 per cent of their allocation.
In May, the Commission, in enforcing its DCSO, allocated 18,778, 392 barrels of crude oil to the producers but the producers exceeding their expectation once again, offered 23,187,893 barrels to the local refiners. However, the producers’ actual supply to the refiners by the end of the month stood at 14, 228, 865 barrels representing 75.8 per cent compliance.
NUPRC, in June allocated 18, 172,638 barrels to the producers, while the producers offered 26, 835, 119 barrels to refiners which in turn took 18, 606, 026 barrels representing a 102.4 per cent performance.
In a statement signed by the NUPRC’s Head, Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, stated that the improvement in DCSO coincided with an increase in local oil production and the signing of the long term crude supply agreement supported by bankable Sales and Purchase agreement between the Producers and Domestic refiners.
The Commission reaffirms its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency. Leveraging the framework of the PIA, 2021, the Commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously enforcing the DCSO.
Akinkuotu in the statement said the statistics shows that DCSO is being actively administered and enforced by the NUPRC. It explained that on a monthly basis, the Commission meets with stakeholders including crude oil producers and local licensed refineries after which the producers are allocated a specific volume of their crude oil and condensate which should be offered to local licensed refineries.
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