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Brent rises 1.32% to $65 as drone strike halts 260,000bpd Russian refinery

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By Grace Edet

Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out one of Russia’s largest refineries, disrupting 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) of processing capacity and raising fresh concerns over global supply stability as winter demand builds.
Brent crude was up 1.32 per cent at $65.05 per barrel at 9:00 WAT, with analysts warning that the outage could trigger further price increases in the coming days.
The Ryazan refinery, Russia’s fourth-largest and operated by Rosneft, has now been hit twice in less than a month as Ukraine escalates its long-range strike campaign. The latest attack halted the plant’s main crude distillation unit, which accounts for roughly 5 per y of Russia’s total refining capacity.
Industry sources told reporters that the refinery will remain shut until at least December 1, adding that “no product deliveries are expected before then,” while several secondary units have also been idled.

Prices Mixed Across the Energy Market

While Brent gained, WTI held steady at $60.90 per barrel, showing no change. Murban crude ticked up by 1.06 per cent to $66.46, whereas natural gas slipped 0.16 per cent to $4.368. Analysts say the muted price response masks rising anxiety beneath the surface.
“Market sentiment has turned cautious. If these outages persist or Moscow’s infrastructure comes under renewed fire, the supply picture could tighten very quickly,” an energy expert, Mustapha Shuaid said.

 

Winter Demand Meets Heightened Geopolitical Risk

The attack comes at a sensitive period, with temperatures dropping across Europe and Asia. Energy markets typically enter a high-demand phase from late November, making geopolitical disruptions more consequential.
Ukraine’s strategy has increasingly shifted toward high-impact targets. According to the Centre for European Policy Analysis, Kyiv is now focusing on “high-value refinery equipment like cracking units — assets that are harder to replace and more disruptive when damaged.”
Recent strikes have also hit terminals and export routes, including the strategic Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea.

Market Braces for Upside Risk

Although front-month prices remain relatively stable, traders say the underlying risk of a significant price upturn is rising. The outage at Ryazan, combined with the threat of additional strikes, could squeeze Russian product exports and rattle global supply chains.
“The next few weeks will be pivotal. Any escalation could be enough to disrupt balances and trigger a price rally, with spillover inflation risks for energy-dependent economies,” another analyst, Akin Owolabi told TheTrustNews.com.
With the Ryazan plant offline and Russia’s refining network increasingly exposed, the oil market enters the winter season on a fragile footing.

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Energy

Oil poised for more gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities

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….Culled from Reuters

Oil prices could extend gains today as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran entered a third week, putting oil infrastructure at risk and keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut in the world’s largest supply disruption. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, drawing a defiant response of further retaliation from Tehran.
Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have already spiked sharply and ⁠rattled global financial markets. Both contracts have surged more than 40 per cent so far this month to their highest levels since 2022 after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key chokepoint for a fifth of global oil supply.
Trump has urged China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others to deploy warships to secure the strategic gateway.
The United States struck military targets on Kharg Island on Saturday, which was swiftly followed by Iranian drone attacks on a key oil terminal in the United Arab Emirates.
“This marks an escalation in the conflict,” JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said.
“Until now, the region’s oil infrastructure has largely been spared.”
Besides UAE’s ⁠Fujairah, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura export terminal and Abqaiq oil processing facilities have been listed as critical and highly vulnerable energy nodes in the Gulf, the analysts said.
However, oil loading operations at Fujairah have resumed, a Fujairah-based industry source told Reuters yesterday.
Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz, is the outlet for about one million barrels per day of the UAE’s flagship ⁠Murban crude oil – a volume equal to about one per cent of world demand.
Global oil supply is expected to fall by eight million bpd in March due to disruptions to shipping while Middle Eastern producers have cut output by at least 10 million bpd, ⁠according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Last week, the IEA agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles held by member nations to combat price spikes. Japan plans to start releasing its oil today.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has rebuffed efforts by Middle Eastern allies to start diplomatic negotiations, according to three sources familiar with the efforts, while Iran has rejected the possibility of any ceasefire until U.S. and Israeli strikes end, dimming hopes of a quick end to the conflict.

 

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Shell resumes production at Bonga, completes turnaround maintenance on FPSO

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Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) has completed the turnaround maintenance on the Bonga Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, leading to resumption of production at Nigeria’s premier deepwater field on March 6, 2026. The project was delivered 11 days ahead of schedule and without any safety incident, reinforcing SNEPCo’s longstanding commitment to operational excellence and asset integrity.
SNEPCo Managing Director, Ronald Adams, noted that completing the turnaround safely and ahead of schedule is a testament to the dedication and professionalism of her Nigerian workforce and the helpful support of our partners.
“The achievement not only secures the long‑term integrity of the Bonga FPSO but also positions us strongly for the successful delivery of the Bonga North project, which will leverage the improved reliability of the FPSO,” Adams said.
The exercise which began on February 1, 2026, highlights SNEPCo’s leading role in advancing deep‑water expertise in Nigeria. Of the 55 companies involved in the execution, 43 were wholly Nigerian. Additionally, eight of the 12 international service providers maintain operational bases in Nigeria, contributing to knowledge transfer and increased local investments.
More than 1,000 personnel worked offshore during the turnaround, with over 95 per cent being Nigerians involved in maintenance, engineering, operations, inspection and construction. Thousands more supported activities from onshore locations, reflecting the depth of Nigerian capability in offshore oil and gas operations.
Adams added: “We acknowledge the support of several stakeholders towards the successful execution of the exercise, including the NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and our partners.”

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Energy

‘Blame regulators for contract delays despite President Tinubu’s order’, says PETAN

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The Chairman, Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), Wole Ogunsanya, has blamed petroleum industry regulators for persistent delays in oil and gas contracting processes, despite a presidential directive requiring tenders to be concluded within six months. Ogunsanya disclosed this during his presentation at the opening ceremony of the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026 in Abuja, yesterday. The Presidential directive is aimed at accelerating project execution across the energy sector.

Recall that President Tinubu in March 2024, issued Executive Order (OE) 42 mandating reduction of petroleum sector contracting costs and timelines, being part of a wider set of oil and gas reforms signed by the administration.

“We are not concluding contract processes in six months as directed and reports sent to the Presidency often fail to reflect the realities faced by industry players,” the PETAN boss said.

Ogunsanya disclosed that his Association is currently monitoring ongoing tenders, emphasising that several projects scheduled to commence in 2026 and 2027 remain stalled due to prolonged contracting cycles.

He noted that execution gaps persist despite a significant increase in contracting activities involving expressions of interest, tenders, pre-qualifications, and technical and commercial evaluations since the fourth quarter of 2024. He also identified prolonged internal approvals, delayed Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), slow commercial negotiations, extended regulatory and compliance procedures, and funding and financial close challenges as major bottlenecks undermining project delivery.

According to him, a study conducted by PETAN revealed that the current rate of contract awards falls significantly short of the Presidential benchmark of completing tenders within six months, with most contracts structured for five years and a possible two-year renewal.

Ogunsanya therefore called on the Presidency to give closer monitoring of the contracting process to ensure that awards and project execution align with presidential timelines, warning that continued delays could weaken investor confidence and slow sector growth.

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