Economy on brighter rebound under Tinubu government

The economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu have received accolades across several strata. Now two years after the reforms, stakeholders are calling for its sustenance and remodification, where necessary. Wealth creation coach, entrepreneur and public analyst, Dr. Olumide Emmanuel, is satisfied that the present administration’s removal of subsidy, floating of the dollars and regularization; impressive stock market performance as well as increasing inflow of foreign direct investment and falling interest rates cum inflation, are glaring evidences that the economy is doing well. Dr. Emmanuel, who is also the Chief Executive , CommonSense Group, bared his mind in this no  hold bar interview with select journalists. The Trust News was there. Excerpts:

How will you say Nigeria has fared at 65?

For many people, what they say is that if we have not received independence, if we had been under the British rule, would we have fared better? Did we get independence too early because they are now using some countries that got independence later on but seem to fare better off as measuring stick? It is as if you leave a child who is not matured to now begin to take care of himself. It’s like a father that was a rich man by the time he dies, the children were just teenagers, they were not matured enough to understand a lot of things. Unlike a man who is a billionaire and died when the children were already adults. So, there is an argument in that direction, maybe that we got independence too early. But we also have people who got independence the same time as we but have done amazingly well. That brings the aspect of the leadership question. We can give excuses up and down, but for me as an individual, I will say that in the last 65 years, we may not be where we were supposed to be but there are a lot of things to be thankful for.

Number one, we are thankful for life, and two, we are thankful that Nigeria still exists. You know a lot of people were young and do not understand the civil war, but for us, even now the trauma of the civil war is still around. A lot of countries did not go through the kind of things that Nigeria went through- all the coups and all kinds of things that have happened, the communal clashes and killings in the last 20 years of insurgency and we are still here. We should be thankful for the level of development we have had, even though it could have been better but we still should be thankful. We are in democracy; many people seem to have forgotten the military era. Those of us that grew up during the military era, we know the effect and up till now, part of the reason why the country is the way it is, is because the people that are adults that are actually supposed to right things are still affected by the military mindset. The young people don’t care, they can talk because they have never been controlled. For many people in our generation, when you want to talk, you remember the software that puts you in the bondage of military thinking. All in all, we could have done better but we are grateful for where we are.

So, how will you assess the economy in the last 65 years?

Economically, we have gone high, we have gone low, we have gone to the lowest low and I think, we are beginning to now climb out of the lowest low. So we are still low but we are coming out of the lowest low to come to low. Why? Because we look at 65/50 years ago before we discovered oil, we had our cash crops. We had the pyramids, cocoa and palm oil which were doing amazingly well. Our economy was topnotch because we were a productive economy. Then we discovered oil which brought in the curse of laziness, visionless-ness and planless-ness. And all the different things that we were doing that were producing for us were killed because we became a monolithic economy, focusing on oil, became lazy and complacent and today, we are seeing the result of that. Now we have realised by going to the lowest low that we need to be a productive country. And that’s why there is a lot going on now with reference to decentralising the issue of oil, going back to full scale agriculture. In the last few years and going forward, we are going to see a lot in the area of cash crops; people beginning to go into real full scale farming that would help us become productive so that we can have something to export. Then if you look at the economy, you will realise that in the last few years, the policy of the government has started producing results.

Now when you talk of policy producing results, until there is something that sets a man in the market place, he does not know that there is a change. Somebody said to me years ago, that all this one they are saying that inflation is going down, that he’s not seeing it. I said to him, let’s say a crate of egg has gone from N400 to almost N6,000, cement from N3,600 to almost N10,000. Now, when we say that inflation is going down, what we are saying is that the pace of increase has reduced. It is not that it will not increase. If every year, bread was increasing at the rate of N100 per year, if inflation reduces, it means that it will now go down from N100 to N50 or any amount lower than N100 per year; it doesn’t mean that you will not buy things expensively, but that the rate at which it is increasing will reduce. Little by little, it will now get to a better dimension. And that is what is happening. A lot of goods in the market have reduced, our stock market is big, doing well, and investor confidence is very high, foreign  direct investment is very high, removal of subsidy has made money available to all the governors , now so many states have more money. People should start facing their governors now and find out what they are doing with the money. Even the macroeconomic policy is yielding positive results, the interest rate, and other things are beginning to go down. Our dollar to naira is now stable. All in all, we are beginning to look forward to things getting better.

You have always advocated a two year gestation period before assessing this government. Now, after two years, how would you assess the President Bola Tinubu’s government?

President Bola Tinubu is an individual, he is the president of the country and then as the president of the country, he is working with some group of people to steer the affairs of the country. They have set policies in place and some of the policies they have put in place have started producing results. Irrespective of who is in government, there are other issues that we now have to look into. We look at corruption, security and infrastructure. For me as an individually, I will say to you clearly, that the policy of President Tinubu administration based on removal of subsidy, floating of the dollars and regularization of other things have started producing results. That is very glaring for everyone to see except you don’t want to be truthful to yourself. That’s why I say, our stock market is doing amazingly well, foreign direct investment is doing amazingly well; there is now more money for governors to do projects; our currency is now stable, also remember the tax reform that will come in from January. The interest rate and inflation are going down. These are realities. So we can now plan. Those are the positive aspects.

The negative aspect is number one, waste, two corruption, three insecurity, four infrastructure deficit. In these areas, they have still not done well. For most people on the streets; as far as I am concerned, everything we are seeing out there indicate that some people are above the law. We have a lot of people still walking around that should be sent to jail. We have a lot of money stolen in billions. Two is the issue of security. Every week, you hear of people dying in different villages; that we are still not having light till now is unimaginable; the roads are bad, a lot is not happening in the area of infrastructure. And then waste, we are seeing a lot of it in many aspects. A lot of things we call waste in this country are constitutional because the law supports them. For a governor to collect money that he does not give account for is legal corruption. So we have seen where they have done well and where they have not done well.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN has steadily cut down interest rate; how will this stimulate the economy?

Most of the time in an economy like Nigeria, where 75 per cent of the population are poor, many of these good news are indices. It is not any news to the poor man because he will not feel it. In any economy, when you are coming up with a policy, you must think of the effect of the policy and come up with palliatives and systems to cushion the effects of the policy on the vulnerable. We are talking about balancing life and livelihood. Most of the times, our policies are not thought through. The major thing that people kicked against was the way the President announced the subsidy removal. However, everybody from Atiku to Obi to Kwankwanso said they will remove subsidy. So the president did what was in the mind of everybody but the way he did it created the problem that now became too difficult to handle because if he had done it in a very strategic way, like maybe you came in May 29, between then and October 1st, you study and begin to tell everyone to prepare their minds. Then on October 1st you declare it. You would have blocked every block-able to know what to do.

A major crisis between Dangote Refinery and the unions reared its head recently. Thankfully, government was able to nip it in the bud before it became a major crisis. Do you think that giving Dangote Refinery a free hand will lead to monopoly as is being speculated in some quarters?

It is a disgrace that we are talking about Dangote having a monopoly when we have three or four refineries that were there before he came. So where is the monopoly? It is a useless discussion. If Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri refineries were working, will you say it’s a monopoly. It is because we are a bunch of unserious people that cannot manage our own that you now say that somebody that came to do his own is stopping you. Anybody making that kind of statement should feel stupid. If those three were working, Dangote would have been one among others.

Dangote is not the only one building refinery. There are three others by other people that will soon come up. When those three come up, will that argument come up? Do you know that there are modular refineries that can be done in one year? Do you know that there are boys in the creeks refining oil every day? Why are we deceiving ourselves with all these stories? If you say Dangote is a monopolist, how? Did he stop other ones from working? So it’s just an argument of lazy people.  PENGASSAN, NUPENG should have a rethink.  When in the next 15 and 20 years there is a change, who will they now go and fight? That is when they will realise they have been fighting the wrong battle. Fighting Dangote Refinery is not the right thing to do because you have refineries that would have been working. What even stops all of them (the Unions) from putting money together and building their own refinery in the country? Unionism is a global discussion and we don’t respect entrepreneurs in this country. We like talking because the emotion of poverty and the hatred for rich people is the software running many of these discussions. The reason why they are fighting Dangote is because they have somebody to fight. The day machine replaces them (workers), they would have to go and fight the machine. Is NITEL fighting, didn’t they go down? NITEL could not fight because technology came. We should be thinking of the future. All these things we are fighting are poverty fights. Technology and development is coming and you are fighting them all in the name of monopoly.

As a wealth creation coach, what is wealth and how can it be created?

For years, I have told people that if we look at wealth only from one angle, we will be making a major mistake. Wealth is holistic. Looking at it from a generic financial point which is cash based, wealth is assets-based. Any fool can be rich. Having money does not make you a wealthy man. You need to have assets that will continue to produce cash flow. Looking at wealth from the money aspect, that is, just one over eight from the equation of things because there are eight components to true wealth. They include: Health, when we say health is wealth, if you gather the whole money in the world, you need to be alive to enjoy it. Experience is wealth; character is wealth; character, goodwill, family are all wealth. So, I define wealth as having all that is required to live a holistic life and make impact by fulfilling your purpose.

How do we now become wealthy? The formula and principle have not changed. Everything begins with knowledge. Financial intelligence is a foundation, next is financial planning, discipline yourself and you then begin to grow organically. Part of that discipline is to delay gratification. Things are currently challenging, you know what you want to do and you do them with time.

How can you measure your financial base?

You look at your assets and liability as well as your income and expenditure. When I have more asset than liability, then I am growing. And once my expenditure is greater than my income, I am in trouble. But if my income is greater than my expenditure, I am okay.

What will you be saying to President Tinubu’s governemt should you have the opportunity?

They should continue with what they are doing, they should not start doing what they will not do well; blocking the corruption doorway, improve the infrastructure, taking care of the security and opening up other productive aspects of the economy. There are other areas that should be unlocked such as sports, entertainment, solid mineral resources, agriculture, etc. These are all areas that we can unlock and you will see Nigeria grow in the next five to 10 years. All these oil rants is olden days story, a discussion of poverty stricken and visionless people that are not thinking of the future. Oil will soon expire and then people will now wake up and discover that they could have done better. So, we should be thinking of other things.

How can a Nigerian business become trans-generational?

One of the reasons why we don’t have trans-generational businesses is because the first generation is always a pioneering and generating generation; the second generation is a maintenance generation; the third generation becomes an entitled generation and that becomes a problem. A speaker recently said that strong men create good times. And that good times create weak men. And those weak men will bring back hard time. So you find out that every generation is actually supposed to be a generating generation. We actually have a lot of trans-generational businesses in Nigeria but people are not telling their stories. And because people are not telling their stories, we don’t know. We have Alabukun pain reliever. It is still existing and trans-generational but nobody is talking about it because there is no structure or story around it. We also have some interstate transportation businesses that are trans-generational and still existing. We don’t talk about our stories because some people give us wrong narratives of ourselves.

When do you think the gains of some of these policies will to trickle down to the common man?

It will take a while for it to trickle down. We should just keep hope alive and continue to be doing what needs to be done. We should also be trusting that the government will be thinking of what needs to be done. During COVID 19 many people went through crisis. But they are not supposed to go through crisis if we had unlocked their pensions. Do you know there are trillions in pension that are going to become useless as Nigeria goes forward? If they collect the money now, they know what they can do with it. But by the time the money is made available to them, it would have become useless because inflation would have eaten it up. There are a lot of things we can do to unlock a lot of things.