• CPPE hails H1 economic fundamentals

An economist and policy analyst, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria is entering the second half of 2026 with its strongest macroeconomic fundamentals in several years than what obtained at the beginning of the year.

Instrumental to this feat are exchange-rate stability, moderating inflation relative to the exceptionally elevated levels of 2025, stronger external reserves, improved oil production and resilient financial markets, which have all contributed to reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and strengthening investor confidence.

Given the renewed confidence in the economy, Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that while the body remains remains cautiously optimistic of an improved economy, yet, the economic output performance is expected to remain positive, supported by financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade, oil refining and other service-sector activities. It noted that although growth is likely to remain below Nigeria’s long-term potential, the economy appears firmly on a gradual recovery path.

“Inflation is expected to remain substantially below 2025 levels, although food supply disruptions, energy costs and developments in global commodity markets remain important upside risks. Exchange-rate stability should be sustained by stronger foreign exchange inflows, healthier reserves and improved market confidence,” Yusuf said.

Still, the economist’s optimism of an upscale in the economy is further buoyed by the financial markets which are expected to remain broadly resilient, supported by banking-sector recapitalisation, stronger corporate earnings, improved regulatory oversight and sustained institutional participation.

Importantly, Yusuf said improved domestic refining capacity and stronger crude oil production will also significantly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings and energy security.

He however cautioned that the second half of the year also presents an important downside risk to the gains recorded in the economy so far owing to the increasing intensity of political and electioneering activities ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Election-related spending could inject additional liquidity into the economy, with possible implications for inflationary pressures, foreign exchange demand and macroeconomic management. There is also a risk that growing political activity could distract policymakers from economic governance, reform implementation and the execution of critical fiscal and structural policy initiatives,” Yusuf cautioned.

The prospects now offered in the second half of the year, the CPPE boss said, are built on the gains recorded during the first half which was characterised the first half of the year. These, he explained, were reflected in the continued progress in macroeconomic stabilisation as economic growth remained positive, the foreign exchange market became more orderly, external reserves improved, crude oil production strengthened modestly and government revenues benefited from improved oil receipts and stronger non-oil tax collections, including the financial markets which also remained resilient, supported by improving investor confidence and policy credibility.

But notwithstanding these encouraging developments, the real economy, he argued, remained under considerable pressure with high interest rates continuing to constrain private-sector investment and access to credit, while elevated energy costs, inadequate electricity supply, logistics inefficiencies and weak transport infrastructure sustained a high-cost operating environment. Manufacturing, agriculture and MSMEs, he said, faced persistent competitiveness challenges despite improvements in macroeconomic stability.

“Insecurity continued to undermine agricultural production, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment across several sectors. Meanwhile, capital expenditure implementation remained below expectations because of procurement delays, funding constraints and debt-service pressures, limiting the growth impact of fiscal policy.

“Overall, H1 2026 was characterised by stronger macroeconomic stability but only modest improvements in real-sector performance and household welfare, underscoring the need for deeper structural reforms,” he said.

While Yusuf explained that the improvement in macroeconomic indicators provides an important foundation for sustainable growth, he nonetheless cautioned that these indicators are not all sufficient.

“The next phase of reform should focus on lowering production costs, improving productivity and strengthening the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. Priority should be given to improving electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency, and port operations; strengthening security in farming communities and along transport corridors; expanding access to affordable long-term finance for productive sectors; accelerating budget implementation, strengthening budget process credibility, and improving infrastructure delivery; and deepening domestic value addition.

“Government revenue should increasingly be driven by efficiency-enhancing reforms rather than additional tax burdens, while policy consistency should be preserved despite increasing political activity ahead of the 2027 elections. It is equally important to minimise governance distractions and ensure that electioneering does not weaken the pace of reforms, budget implementation or the quality of economic management,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.

The Federal Government has called on host communities in Ogun and Ondo states to give maximum support to the proposed Dangote Industrial City and Deep Seaport project, describing it as a transformative initiative that will create opportunities for economic growth and community development.

Representing the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, at the combined Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) site visit, the Director of Assessment, Federal Ministry of Environment, Mrs. Rofikat Odetoro commended Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) for its commitment to environmental sustainability and inclusive stakeholder engagement.

Speaking during the three-day assessment tour across Ode-Omi Waterside Community in Ogun State and Araromi Community in Ondo State, Odetoro expressed satisfaction with the level of community consultations and groundwork undertaken to ensure the project aligns with environmental regulations and the interests of host communities.

Odetoro stressed the need for inclusive dialogue, urging traditional rulers and community leaders not to overlook women and children during consultations. “I urge you to factor women into every engagement. Women and children are as important as every other member of the community and they have unique needs that must not be ignored. Please give this project every support possible. It presents enormous opportunities for youths, women, and children to benefit from employment and the mandatory corporate social responsibility initiatives that will accompany it,” she said.

Speaking during the community engagement at Araromi Seaside Kingdom, Managing Director, Infrastructure and Logistics, Dangote Industries Limited, Capt. Jamil Abubakar, assured the indigenes of transparency, fairness, and continuous engagement throughout the project’s implementation.
According to him, the President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, is committed to ensuring Africa becomes more self-sufficient through strategic infrastructure investments.

“Our President is committed to positioning Africa for greater self-sufficiency and Araromi has been chosen as the location where one of the world’s biggest deep seaports will be built. We are excited about the prospects of this project. We are here to listen to the community’s concerns and work together to achieve a win-win outcome for every stakeholder involved,” he said.

Abubakar further disclosed that Aliko Dangote had directed the project team to carry out a comprehensive needs assessment of the host communities and provide critical interventions regardless of the project’s stage of development.

Presenting the ESIA, Group Lead, Environment and Sustainability, DIL, Dr. Adeyemi Adun, said the study was designed to establish the current environmental and socio-economic baseline of the host communities before project execution. He explained that the assessment would evaluate the quality of air, water and soil, as well as the socio-economic conditions of residents, in line with Federal Ministry of Environment guidelines.

“This phase of the project is intended to establish the current status of the community in terms of air quality, water resources, soil conditions, and socio-economic indicators, as required by the Federal Ministry of Environment. We also assure you that this project will have a positive impact on your communities, just as Dangote Industries has done in other host communities across the country,” Adun added.

Also speaking during the tour, the representative of the Ondo State Commissioner for Environment and Director of the Environmental Assessment Department, Isaac Ojo, welcomed the commencement of the assessment process, describing it as inclusive and beneficial to all stakeholders. “We are delighted that this process has begun and that it accommodates every stakeholder. We are confident the project will benefit the communities, and we encourage everyone to give the Dangote team the maximum support required for its success”, Ojo said.

The Alara of Araromi Seaside Kingdom, Oba Adeoloye Olawole, also expressed strong support for the project, describing Aliko Dangote as “a genius” whose investments would accelerate the development of the kingdom. “We are counting on Aliko Dangote to help develop our kingdom. He is a genius, and we are ready to provide every support necessary to ensure the success of this project. We have always maintained that our community is peaceful, cooperative, and committed to progress. We want him to help develop our land as he doing all over Africa,” the monarch added.

The World Bank Group has approved a $1.25 billion financing package to support Nigeria’s economic reforms as part of a new seven-year partnership that aims to expand broadband access to 58 million people, improve health and nutrition services for 40 million Nigerians, provide electricity access to 32 million people, and support 9.5 million farmers across the country.

The support is contained in the World Bank Group’s new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for 2026–2032, which was approved alongside the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) Development Policy Financing (DPF) operation.

According to the World Bank, the new partnership is designed to help Nigeria create more and better jobs by encouraging private sector investment and building on the country’s recent economic reforms.

The institution said recent policy changes have led to stronger economic growth, higher government revenues, improved foreign reserves and increased investor confidence. It noted, however, that sustaining these gains would require reforms that make it easier for businesses to invest, expand and employ more Nigerians.

Speaking on the new framework, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the strategy would guide the institution’s support for Nigeria over the next several years.

“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth,” he said.

Verghis added that while recent macroeconomic reforms had helped stabilise the economy, “translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation.”

The World Bank said the $1.25 billion NAIJA financing would support government reforms aimed at strengthening economic growth and improving competitiveness.

According to the institution, the reforms include developing Nigeria’s capital markets, updating regulations for the digital economy and electronic governance, advancing reforms in the power sector to speed up electrification, reducing trade barriers in line with the country’s commitments under the ECOWAS and African Continental Free Trade Area agreements, improving access to quality agricultural seeds and strengthening domestic revenue generation.

It explained that the financing forms part of a broader package of support covering investments in energy, digital infrastructure, agriculture, private sector development and social protection to promote job creation, economic resilience and poverty reduction.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) Divisional Director for Nigeria, Dahlia Khalifa, said Nigeria has significant long-term growth prospects if it succeeds in attracting more investment and improving productivity.

“Nigeria’s long-term growth potential will be shaped by the economy’s ability to attract investment, raise productivity, and unleash private sector job creation building on the capital of a rapidly growing population,” she said.
Khalifa added that under the new partnership, the World Bank Group would work with Nigeria to unlock private investment, expand access to infrastructure and essential services, and create an environment that allows businesses to innovate and compete.

She said the overall objective was to ensure that ongoing economic reforms translate into wider economic opportunities and improved living standards for Nigerians.

Also commenting, MIGA Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ed Mountfield, said although Nigeria’s reform programme was opening new investment opportunities, investors still faced risks that needed to be addressed.

“Nigeria’s reform progress is creating important opportunities for private investment, but risks remain for investors. MIGA’s role is to help manage these risks—through guarantees and political risk insurance—so that investors can step in with confidence,” he said.

Mountfield said the World Bank Group Guarantee Platform, managed by MIGA under the new partnership framework, would increase support for priority sectors including financial services and infrastructure to help attract investment, create jobs and stimulate economic growth.