Energy
Hope rises on Hormuz, but oil price stability remains shaky
The international oil market tumbled at the weekend as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations gain momentum. As at the time of going to press last night, words were still being awaited of the signing of a peace deal between the U.S and Iran to end the war- a position the U.S President, Donald Trump, had maintained would happen and lead to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But experts caution that a return to pre-war oil price levels remains a distant prospect. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, experts say, does not, in itself, signal an immediate normalisation of energy supplies.
Still, forecasts for oil are split, with Goldman Sachs lowering its 2027 Brent crude outlook to $80 per barrel, while ING warns prices could spike to $120–$130 if supply disruptions persist.
Biggo.com news, quoting the Seoul Economic Daily’s energy series “Petro-Electro” and Reuters, noted that the market’s primary focus is now on whether the so-called “Islamabad Declaration”—a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end hostilities between the U.S. and Iran—will be signed.
Reuters reported that the two nations have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days in exchange for releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waiving sanctions on Iranian crude exports. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme are also slated to proceed for 60 days following the cessation of hostilities.
Based on these, Brent crude futures fell $3.05, or 3.37 per cent to settle at $87.33 per barrel, marking their lowest level since early March. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also dropped $2.83 or 3.23 per cent to $84.88 per barrel, its weakest since April 17.
However, reopening the strait does not equate to a full restoration of Middle Eastern energy flows. A severe bottleneck is inevitable as hundreds of vessels currently stranded in the Persian Gulf attempt to transit the narrow waterway simultaneously.
Javier Blas, an energy columnist for Bloomberg, noted: “We will see the simultaneous effort to evacuate trapped tankers while new vessels attempt to enter. There is no precedent for this, and no playbook exists.”
The recovery on the production side is also proving sluggish. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation estimates it will take six to eight weeks to restore roughly 70% of crude output after the strait reopens, with an additional month needed to bring the remaining 30% back online. As supply recovers only gradually, the extent of any oil price decline will be inherently capped.
A sharp drawdown in global petroleum inventories is another factor underpinning prices. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil stockpiles fell by 250 million barrels between February—when the conflict began—and May. Once peace is restored, efforts by governments and refiners to replenish strategic and commercial reserves are expected to generate additional demand, further limiting downside for crude.
Conversely, significant downward pressures on oil prices remain formidable. Just before the war, the dominant concern in global crude markets was oversupply. With non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada already poised to increase output, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) withdrawal from OPEC has amplified the potential for a supply surge. The UAE has long chafed under production quotas, and any unilateral move to boost output could intensify the glut.
On the demand side, China’s slowing oil consumption is particularly pronounced. In May, China’s average daily crude imports fell to 7.8 million barrels, down more than 3 million barrels from the roughly 11 million barrels per day maintained in recent years. The structural shift in energy consumption—driven by the expansion of electric vehicles and increased use of petrochemical feedstocks—is cited as the root cause.
Major institutions are also diverging in their oil price outlooks. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2027 average Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel, reflecting rising supply and weakening demand. OPEC, meanwhile, cut its 2026 global oil demand growth estimate from 1.17 million barrels per day to 970,000 barrels, but left the door open to a demand recovery by projecting an increase of 1.73 million barrels per day in 2027. ING analysts warned that “if Middle Eastern crude supply is not restored by the end of July, inventory levels and seasonal demand increases could send oil prices soaring to $120–$130 per barrel.”
Saadé, CEO of French shipping giant CMA CGM, told the French parliament that “even if a peaceful solution is reached in the coming weeks, there is no guarantee that another crisis will not erupt,” underscoring the persistence of geopolitical uncertainty. Indeed, Iran has indicated that terms could change before the MOU is signed and has firmly stated that its missile program will be excluded from negotiations.
Ultimately, even if peace materializes, international oil prices appear set to navigate a complex path toward a new equilibrium—one shaped by the interplay of shipping bottlenecks, delayed production restarts, lingering Middle Eastern tensions, and shifting global demand patterns.
….Culled from Biggo.com
Energy
Nigeria’s oil production hits 1.67mbpd in July
• Surpasses OPEC quota for third consecutive
By Oluwayanmife Lucas
For the third consecutive month, Nigeria has sustained exceeding her Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) allocated crude oil quoted of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). This was contained in the latest statistics from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) released yesterday.
According to the data, in the month of July, the country produced 1.505mbpd of crude oil and 0.17mbpd of condensate, bringing the combined daily production to 1.67mbpd. In this period, the daily peak production of crude oil and condensate was 1.78mbpd while the lowest daily production was 1.57mbpd.
A breakdown of the daily average crude oil and condensate production by terminals/streams during the review month shows that Forcados Terminal accounted for 322.34kbpd while Bonny Terminal accounted for 303.72kbpd while Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average production of 158.02kbpd of crude oil and condensates while Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 131.41kbpd. Bonga ranked as the fifth highest producing terminal, recording an average of 100.23kbpd of crude oil.
Although Nigeria met its OPEC quota in the month of July, the statistics show that on a month on month basis, production fell by four per cent. This, the Commission, in a statement signed by its Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, attributed the decline in production to operational challenges experienced at the Erha and Akpofields, which impacted production output during the period under review.
“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output. But despite the challenges encountered, production operations across other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures aimed at maintaining production efficiency and minimizing the impact of operational constraints. Routine production activities and crude evacuation operations were largely sustained across the sector,” the statement said.
The sustained increase represents a buoy for the country’s 2.2mbpd production output target by end of 2026. This, if attained, will support the national budget viability, which bodies like the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) said remains critical for stabilising government revenue and foreign exchange. The NUPRC said the July outcome underscores the importance of proactive asset management, operational resilience, and timely intervention in mitigating production disruptions within the Nigerian upstream petroleum industry.
It added that industry stakeholders remain focused on addressing the identified operational issues, restoring affected production capacity and strengthening asset reliability to support improved performance in subsequent months.
The sustained production output by the country has also contributed to OPEC+ boost in its output. In the month of July, the organisation recorded an increase in her oil production soared by 1.17mbpd from its June figure.
Still, in January and May, Nigeria contributed 1.53mbpd respectively to OPEC+ representing 102 per cent compliance. However, in February, March and April, the country failed to meet the quota allocation contributing 1.40mbpd or 93 per cent compliance; 1.38mbpd or 92 per cent compliance and 1.48 mbpd or 99 per cent compliance respectively to OPEC+.
Energy
Sahara Upstream deepens investment in African oilfield services
• Positions Arahas and SGIR for Next Phase of Growth
By Temitayo Lucas
Sahara Upstream is accelerating the next phase of its oilfield services strategy, strengthening Arahas Global Oilfield Services (Arahas) and SGIR Rigs and Energy Limited as integrated platforms designed to support growing demand for world-class upstream services across Africa.
As part of this strategic direction, Sahara has appointed Gopi Nath as Director, Oilfield Services, with responsibility for providing strategic oversight for both businesses as they drive operational integration, expand service capabilities, and deliver greater value across the upstream value chain.
Speaking on the appointment, Executive Director, Sahara Upstream, Ade Odunsi, said the next phase of growth for Africa’s upstream industry will depend on strong regional service companies with the capability to execute increasingly complex projects safely, efficiently, and sustainably. Besides, he explained that the development reflects the firm’s continued investment in building indigenous oilfield services capacity capable of supporting Africa’s evolving energy landscape through engineering excellence, operational reliability, innovation and sustainable execution.
“Building resilient energy systems requires equally resilient service businesses. Arahas and SGIR are strategically positioned to deliver the technical expertise, operational excellence, and customer-focused solutions required by operators across the continent. Gopi’s appointment strengthens our ability to accelerate that ambition,” Odunsi said.
He noted that Sahara continues to invest in businesses that create long-term value across Africa’s energy sector. “Our objective is not simply to grow two businesses. We are building integrated service platforms capable of supporting exploration, drilling, engineering, project delivery, and production operations at a standard that competes globally while remaining rooted in Africa,” he added.
Commenting on his appointment, Nath said Sahara has built strong foundations for creating one of Africa’s leading oilfield services platforms.
“This is an exciting period for Sahara’s oilfield services business. We have exceptional talent, established capabilities, and a clear strategic direction. My focus will be on strengthening collaboration across Arahas and SGIR, enhancing customer value, driving execution excellence, and expanding our service offerings to meet the evolving needs of Africa’s energy industry,” he said, assuring that the businesses would continue setting new benchmarks for safety, innovation, operational performance, and stakeholder value while supporting sustainable energy development across the continent.
Nath further noted that Arahas was established to deliver high-impact oilfield services anchored on engineering excellence, operational reliability, innovation, and sustainability, while SGIR provides drilling, engineering, project execution, and field support services that enhance operational efficiency across upstream operations.
“Together, both businesses form a critical component of Sahara Upstream’s long-term strategy to strengthen local capacity, improve execution, and provide integrated solutions across the upstream value chain,” he concluded.
Energy
DSCO: 53.7mb of crude supplied in Q2 2026
• Dangote Refinery tops with 52.6mb
By Oluwayanmife Lucas
A total of 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refiners between April and June, under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO). The figure translates to an overall performance of 97.4 per cent for the second quarter (Q2) of 2026.
The Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) is a statutory requirement under Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021. It compels upstream oil producers to allocate a specific portion of their crude oil production to local, licensed refineries before they can export the rest. This policy aims to guarantee energy security, reduce heavy reliance on imported petroleum products and shield the domestic economy from foreign exchange volatility.
This was contained in the latest report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on the enforcement of the DCSO in accordance with the provisions of Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). In line with the PIA, the framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which shapes eventual outcomes.
In the period under review, on refinery supply basis, he report showed that the Dangote Refinery, which required 63 million barrels in Q2, was offered higher volumes of 68.1 million barrels by the producers. The 68.1 million barrels offered to the Dangote Refinery by producers, the report said, represents 98 per cent of all offered volumes. Dangote Refinery however accepted 52.6 million barrels, representing 78 per cent of the quantity offered her.
The remaining 1.1 million barrels of crude oil supplied were shared by Aradel, Waltersmith, Edo, and another refinery.
According to the report, in the month of April, following consultations with stakeholders, 18, 127, 638 barrels were allocated to producers. It noted that the producers exceeded expectation, offering19, 312, 476 barrels to refiners. Eventually, 20, 879, 381 barrels were supplied to local refiners, meaning the producers met 114.9 per cent of their allocation.
In May, the Commission, in enforcing its DCSO, allocated 18,778, 392 barrels of crude oil to the producers but the producers exceeding their expectation once again, offered 23,187,893 barrels to the local refiners. However, the producers’ actual supply to the refiners by the end of the month stood at 14, 228, 865 barrels representing 75.8 per cent compliance.
NUPRC, in June allocated 18, 172,638 barrels to the producers, while the producers offered 26, 835, 119 barrels to refiners which in turn took 18, 606, 026 barrels representing a 102.4 per cent performance.
In a statement signed by the NUPRC’s Head, Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, stated that the improvement in DCSO coincided with an increase in local oil production and the signing of the long term crude supply agreement supported by bankable Sales and Purchase agreement between the Producers and Domestic refiners.
The Commission reaffirms its commitment to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency. Leveraging the framework of the PIA, 2021, the Commission aims to sustain recent gains in crude oil production while continuously enforcing the DCSO.
Akinkuotu in the statement said the statistics shows that DCSO is being actively administered and enforced by the NUPRC. It explained that on a monthly basis, the Commission meets with stakeholders including crude oil producers and local licensed refineries after which the producers are allocated a specific volume of their crude oil and condensate which should be offered to local licensed refineries.
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