Energy
Nigeria loses $15b annually to oil theft — Study
By Grace Edet
Nigeria is losing an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline vandalism, according to a new study by energy economist Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University.
He warned the development could derail the Tinubu administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027.
Presenting the report at the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, themed “The Positive Impact of Oil and Gas Reforms by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Professor Muhammed described the losses as “a major threat to national economic recovery and fiscal stability.”
“Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country continues to struggle with declining productivity and weak institutional accountability,” Muhammed said.
Sector under strain despite huge reserves
The study noted that Nigeria, which holds about 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, remains hamstrung by poor governance, policy inconsistency, and decaying infrastructure.
Between 2019 and 2024, the country’s oil output averaged 1.4 to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) — below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million bpd, while inflation and unemployment climbed to 22 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively.
Muhammed said these trends have combined to erode national revenue, deepen economic hardship, and weaken investor confidence in the energy sector.
PIA implementation yet to deliver full impact
The report acknowledged that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 introduced key structural reforms, including the creation of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
However, he noted that the benefits remain “largely unrealised” due to weak enforcement and poor institutional coordination.
“Implementation of the PIA and the commercialisation of NNPC have begun to yield modest results, but production efficiency and local content development remain moderate,” he said.
Muhammed’s findings also showed a strong correlation (r = 0.74) between crude oil production and GDP growth, suggesting that higher output could significantly boost Nigeria’s economic performance. Regulatory quality and investment inflows, he added, account for over 81 per cent of GDP variance in the oil and gas sector.
Nigeria trails peers in regulatory performance
A comparative analysis presented at the conference placed Nigeria far behind global peers in regulatory efficiency, scoring 63 out of 100, compared to Norway’s 92 and the United States’ 90.
Muhammed attributed this gap to poor technology adoption, weak oversight, and inadequate policy coherence.
“The twin problems of oil theft and pipeline vandalism have continued to undermine the sector’s growth. Without decisive measures, Nigeria risks losing the transformative gains envisaged under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” he warned.
The study recommended digital monitoring of oil production, rehabilitation of pipelines with anti-theft technologies, and increased research and development funding. It also called for deeper investment in gas-based industrialisation to diversify the economy.
Private capital seen as the way forward
In his remarks, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, Co-convener of the conference, urged the federal government to step back from direct participation in refinery operations and allow private investors to lead the process.
He said: “When we talk about reform in the oil sector, it means the government must take its hands off business. Public refineries have failed for decades, but one man’s vision has given us the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery — proof that private ownership works.”
AbdulQuadri argued that deregulation is already paying off through increased transparency and reduced corruption.
“When we deregulate, we kill corruption. The subsidy era enriched a few individuals at the expense of the nation. Now, the process is open and transparent,” he explained.
Bridging the policy-citizen gap
AbdulQuadri emphasized the need to improve public awareness about the government’s reform agenda, noting that misinformation has clouded citizens’ perception of the sector’s progress.
“This conference is about bridging the information gap between citizens and government. Many Nigerians are unaware of the positive changes happening in the sector, and that ignorance breeds misinformation,” he said.
He further appealed for unity and collective support for reforms, adding: “In this country, we don’t have Hausa, Igbo, or Yoruba; we don’t have Muslim or Christian — only good and bad people. Good Nigerians must work together against those using tribe and religion to divide us.”
Experts call for stability and transparency
Participants, including regulators, industry experts, and civil society leaders, agreed that the long-term health of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry depends on policy stability, transparency, and greater private-sector participation.
Professor Muhammed concluded that the sustainability of Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda hinges on deeper institutional reform and diversification of the economy.
“Sustainable growth beyond 2027 depends not just on oil output, but on Nigeria’s ability to institutionalise regulatory excellence, diversify its economy, and strengthen public accountability,” he said.
Energy
Dangote Refinery pushes Nigeria to petrol net exporter in March
Nigeria recorded a historic shift in its downstream petroleum trade in March, emerging as a net exporter of gasoline for the first time, driven largely by rising output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals.
Data from market intelligence firm, Kpler, showed that gasoline (petrol) imports into the country dropped sharply to 41,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the month of March, the lowest level on record. At the same time, crude supply to the
Dangote facility rose to about 565,000 bpd, the second-highest intake since the 650,000 bpd refinery commenced operations in late 2023, indicating strong processing rates and increased product yield.
Total gasoline exports from the Dangote Refinery rose to 44,000 bpd in March, compared to no exports recorded in January and February. This shift enabled Nigeria to post a net export position of approximately 3,000 bpd for the month in review.
In expanding its market reach, the Dangote Refinery exported gasoline to East Africa for the first time, shipping a 317,000-barrel cargo to Mozambique. The move reflects growing demand in the region as buyers seek alternatives to Middle East Gulf supplies amid ongoing disruptions. Another April shipment from the refinery is also bound for Beira, Mozambique.
Nigeria’s emergence as a gasoline exporter is expected to reshape regional trade flows and intensify competition in global markets. Analysts note that the development adds pressure to Europe’s already oversupplied gasoline market, as Nigeria transitions from a key import destination to a potential competing supplier.
The March milestone signals a significant step in Nigeria’s drive towards self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products and its ambition to become a net exporter in the global energy market.
President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, recently described President Bola Tinubu’s ongoing economic and energy sector reforms as critical to restoring market confidence and enabling large-scale investments in domestic refining.
Energy
Dangote key to tackling Africa’s food security challenges, says UN Envoy
The Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Amina Mohammed, has underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.
Speaking during a visit to the company’s industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.
“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”
Her remarks comes at a time of heightened concern over food shortages and supply chain disruptions across Africa, driven by global economic pressures, climate-related shocks and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
The President/Chief Executive, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, said the group has ramped up exports of urea and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to African markets affected by supply disruptions arising from the crisis.
Noting the widening impact of the situation across the continent, Dangote said the company has intensified shipments of fertiliser to support agricultural productivity and ease supply constraints.
“The challenges are many. One is of urea, which is fertiliser that we have. I think in the last couple of days we’ve been loading to mostly African countries, which we were not doing before,” he said. “And then now it’s to do with petroleum products, which we are now sending mainly to African countries,” Dangote said.
He added that the refinery has shipped about 17 cargoes of petrol to African countries to cushion the impact of the crisis, leveraging its 650,000 barrels per day capacity to stabilise supply across multiple regions.
“What I can do is assure Nigerians … and most of West Africa, Central Africa, and East Africa, we have the capacity to supply them,” Dangote said.
On feedstock supply, Dangote commended the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in naira and four in dollars—to support domestic fuel availability.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for naira and four cargoes for dollars,” he said.
Despite the improvement, the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.
Dangote also expressed concern over the unwillingness by international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.
He added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.
Energy
Eterna Plc records 52.9% growth in PBT for FY2025
Eterna Plc yesterday announced its audited financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2025, delivering a strong performance marked by significant profit growth and improved balance sheet strength.
The Company recorded revenue of ₦302.37 billion for the year, while profit before tax (PBT) rose to ₦7.27 billion, representing a 52.9 per cent year-on-year increase from ₦4.48 billion in 2024. Profit after tax stood at ₦2.92 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of ₦2.24, reflecting enhanced value creation for shareholders.
The company’s financial position strengthened during the year, with total assets rising to ₦92.19 billion, driven by its inventory, while shareholders’ funds increased to ₦7.77 billion, reflecting improved retained earnings and enhanced balance sheet resilience.
The performance reflects the Company’s continued focus on operational efficiency, improved cost management, and strategic positioning across its fuels, lubricants, and gas businesses.
In line with its commitment to delivering value to shareholders, the Board of Directors has proposed a dividend of ₦0.50 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, subject to shareholders’ approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting.
Commenting on the full 2025 FY results, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Olumide Adeosun, stated that the company remains focused on operational efficiency and sustainable asset expansion, while strengthening its market position across its fuels, lubricants, and gas businesses.
“Eterna Plc remains committed to building on this performance through retail expansion, increased product offerings, operational improvements, and customer-focused initiatives aimed at enhancing value for our shareholders,” Adeosun said.
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