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Nigeria loses $15b annually to oil theft — Study

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By Grace Edet

Nigeria is losing an estimated $15 billion annually to oil theft and pipeline vandalism, according to a new study by energy economist Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University.
He warned the development could derail the Tinubu administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027.
Presenting the report at the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, themed “The Positive Impact of Oil and Gas Reforms by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Professor Muhammed described the losses as “a major threat to national economic recovery and fiscal stability.”
“Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country continues to struggle with declining productivity and weak institutional accountability,” Muhammed said.

Sector under strain despite huge reserves

The study noted that Nigeria, which holds about 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, remains hamstrung by poor governance, policy inconsistency, and decaying infrastructure.
Between 2019 and 2024, the country’s oil output averaged 1.4 to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) — below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million bpd, while inflation and unemployment climbed to 22 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively.
Muhammed said these trends have combined to erode national revenue, deepen economic hardship, and weaken investor confidence in the energy sector.

PIA implementation yet to deliver full impact

The report acknowledged that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 introduced key structural reforms, including the creation of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
However, he noted that the benefits remain “largely unrealised” due to weak enforcement and poor institutional coordination.
“Implementation of the PIA and the commercialisation of NNPC have begun to yield modest results, but production efficiency and local content development remain moderate,” he said.
Muhammed’s findings also showed a strong correlation (r = 0.74) between crude oil production and GDP growth, suggesting that higher output could significantly boost Nigeria’s economic performance. Regulatory quality and investment inflows, he added, account for over 81 per cent of GDP variance in the oil and gas sector.

Nigeria trails peers in regulatory performance

A comparative analysis presented at the conference placed Nigeria far behind global peers in regulatory efficiency, scoring 63 out of 100, compared to Norway’s 92 and the United States’ 90.
Muhammed attributed this gap to poor technology adoption, weak oversight, and inadequate policy coherence.
“The twin problems of oil theft and pipeline vandalism have continued to undermine the sector’s growth. Without decisive measures, Nigeria risks losing the transformative gains envisaged under the Renewed Hope Agenda,” he warned.
The study recommended digital monitoring of oil production, rehabilitation of pipelines with anti-theft technologies, and increased research and development funding. It also called for deeper investment in gas-based industrialisation to diversify the economy.

Private capital seen as the way forward

In his remarks, Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, Co-convener of the conference, urged the federal government to step back from direct participation in refinery operations and allow private investors to lead the process.
He said: “When we talk about reform in the oil sector, it means the government must take its hands off business. Public refineries have failed for decades, but one man’s vision has given us the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery — proof that private ownership works.”
AbdulQuadri argued that deregulation is already paying off through increased transparency and reduced corruption.
“When we deregulate, we kill corruption. The subsidy era enriched a few individuals at the expense of the nation. Now, the process is open and transparent,” he explained.

Bridging the policy-citizen gap

AbdulQuadri emphasized the need to improve public awareness about the government’s reform agenda, noting that misinformation has clouded citizens’ perception of the sector’s progress.
“This conference is about bridging the information gap between citizens and government. Many Nigerians are unaware of the positive changes happening in the sector, and that ignorance breeds misinformation,” he said.
He further appealed for unity and collective support for reforms, adding: “In this country, we don’t have Hausa, Igbo, or Yoruba; we don’t have Muslim or Christian — only good and bad people. Good Nigerians must work together against those using tribe and religion to divide us.”

Experts call for stability and transparency

Participants, including regulators, industry experts, and civil society leaders, agreed that the long-term health of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry depends on policy stability, transparency, and greater private-sector participation.
Professor Muhammed concluded that the sustainability of Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda hinges on deeper institutional reform and diversification of the economy.
“Sustainable growth beyond 2027 depends not just on oil output, but on Nigeria’s ability to institutionalise regulatory excellence, diversify its economy, and strengthen public accountability,” he said.

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Energy

31 winners emerge in 2025 oil licensing round

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Thirty-one companies yesterday emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks at the 2025 Licensing Round which held at the Transcorp Event Center, Abuja. A total of 143 companies had submitted 200 bids for 37 out of the 50 oil and gas blocks originally put on offer.

 

Of the 50 blocks on offer, 37 received bids while no bids were submitted for the remaining 13. The 37 blocks that attracted bids were drawn from all the terrains including the frontier basins like the Benue Trough, Chad Basin, Anambra Basin and the Benin Basin.

 

These blocks were drawn from diverse terrains including the Niger Delta Onshore 16; Niger Delta Shallow Water, 18;, Niger Delta Deep Offshore, one; Benin Basin Onshore, three; Anambra Basin Onshore, four; Chad Basin Onshore, four and Benue Trough, four.

A statement by the Head of Media and Communications, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Eniola Akinkuotu, noted that yesterday’s licencing round marked the first time in the country’s energy landscape that frontier basins would attract such level of investor interest.

The companies that emerged winners of the 2025 Licensing Round include: SSonic Petroleum Limited (PPL 2A29), CFP Pipeline and Flowlines (2A30), Dutchford E&P Limited (2A32), Attabanson Global Company Limited (2A33 and PPL 901), Rosem Energy Limited (2A38), Pivot-GIS Limited (2A39), Network E&P (2A40), Asharami (2A41), LexOil (2A42), BVOF (2A43), GupscoEnergy Limited (2A44 and 2A51), Saratoga (2A45), Volante (2A46), Concept-Reel Petroleum Services Limited (2A47 and 2A55), Clinton Oil Field (2A48 and 2A62) and Nuway Oaklane Limited (2A49).

Others are Ramec (2A50), Italia (2A53), Blueridge E&P (2A54), Up Energies Limited (2A56), AYM Shafa (2A57), Blackrock Holdings Limited (2A58), Funtay Integrated Business Limited (2A59), Riparian Development and Production Limited (2A60), Nikstallis (2A61 and PPL 900), Stardeep Petroleum (PPL 2010), Dakoda & U Limited (PPL308 and PPL 800), Southborne Oil and Gas Limited (PPL 902), Lanaka Petroleum (PPL 903) HighbanResources Limited (PPL 700), Eyre Energy Limited (PPL 801).

In line with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021, these firms will only be presented final awards after the payment of the appropriate signature bonus and the approval of the Minister of Petroleum Resources.

In her remarks, the Commission Chief Executive, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, thanked President Bola Tinubu for supporting the Commission to deliver a seamless licensing round.

While congratulating the winners, Eyesan urged them to pay their signature bonuses as quickly as possible and also develop their assets or risk losing them in line with the drill or drop provision enforced by the Commission.

The commercial bid conference was closely monitored by representatives of the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Nigeria Extractive Industry and Transparency Initiative (NEITI)and several other stakeholders in line with the extant laws.

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Nigeria’s oil, gas local content reach 61% in 15 years

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The Executive Secretary, Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Felix Ogbe, an engineer, yesterday revealed that in the last 15 years, local participation in the country’s oil and gas sector recorded a significant rise from less than five per cent to 61 per cent.

He made this known yesterday while delivering his speech at the 25th Edition of the Nigeria Oil and Gas Energy Week currently ongoing in Abuja. He spoke on the theme: “Shaping the Next Phase of Local Content Growth.”

The NCDMB boss attributed the increase to the signing of the NOGICD Act of 2010, describing it as accounting for the success.

 

To sustain this increase, Ogbe said, the next phase must focus on manufacturing, competence and global competitiveness, if the country is to achieve its target of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
“Over the last 15 years, Nigeria’s local content journey has become a remarkable success story,” Ogbe declared, adding that, “Through the implementation of the NOGICD Act of 2010, we have transformed local participation in the oil and gas industry from marginal levels of less than five per cent to 61 per cent a situation where Nigerians now own assets, provide services, execute projects, and contribute significantly across the oil and gas value chain.”

Although he expressed satisfaction with the feat, Ogbe nonetheless said the next phase of the board’s strategy is to move beyond mere compliance metrics toward deep-rooted industrialisation and global competitiveness.
“These achievements deserve to be celebrated. However, they also compel us to ask a fundamental question: What comes next? The next phase of local content growth must go beyond participation and compliance. It must focus on capacity expansion, industrialization, manufacturing, sustainability and global competitiveness,” the NCDMB boss said.

 

To ensure a sustenance of this achievement and further upscaling, he disclosed that the NCDMB, following in line with Presidential Directives, has partnered with NIPEX, NUPRC, NMDPRA, NNPC, and the Oil Producers Trade Section (OPTS) to create a harmonised ranking system.

To this end, the Board will commence modification of its various certification portals in readiness for the joint industry capacity audits of in-country manufacturers and service providers operating within the oil and gas industry.

The audit, he added, will begin in the third quarter 2026.
“The outcome of the in-country capacity audit will provide a detailed understanding of existing capabilities, eliminate intermediaries, improve contracting cycle timelines, and ensure direct patronage of established service providers for business sustainability and growth.
“The findings from the exercise will also enable the Board and industry stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding investment priorities, technology partnerships, financing support, and policy interventions,” Ogbe added.

 

The Board, he revealed, also maintained a zero tolerance against operators failing to remit their statutory fees into the Nigerian Content Development Fund (NCDF)- a fund meant for building domestic capability. To ensure full compliance, possessing an NCDF Compliance Certificate will now be major criteria for doing business.

 

“It is therefore unacceptable for any company to withhold, delay, or fail to remit its statutory contributions to the Nigerian Content Development Fund (NCDF). The Board will continue to strengthen its compliance and enforcement mechanisms and will not hesitate to invoke all available regulatory measures to ensure compliance, because possession of a valid NCDF Compliance Certificate is increasingly becoming an important requirement for participation in industry opportunities and regulatory engagements,” Ogbe added.

 

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Energy

Dangote Refinery slashes fuel prices, as refinery absorbed global oil price surge

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  • Reduces PMS by N200/l in one month

 

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has announced another reduction in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol. The latest reduction marks its fourth price cut within a month as the company said it continues to pass lower production costs to consumers despite still processing crude oil purchased at significantly higher international prices.

The latest N50 per litre reduction brings the cumulative decrease in the refinery’s PMS ex depot price to N200 per litre since May 30, 2026, reducing the gantry price to N1, 075. Over the same period, the refinery has reduced the ex-depot price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) by N300 per litre and Jet A1 aviation fuel by N520 per litre.

The company said the successive reductions demonstrate its commitment to ensuring Nigerians benefit from favourable market developments while maintaining the long-term sustainability of domestic refining operations.

In a statement issued yesterday, the refinery explained that petroleum product pricing cannot mirror daily movements in international crude oil markets because crude is purchased weeks, and sometimes months, before it is processed.

According to the refinery, the petroleum products currently being supplied to the market are being produced from crude inventories acquired during periods of substantially higher prices.

It disclosed that the average landed cost of crude processed stood at approximately $124.80 per barrel in May and $95.25 per barrel in June, compared with the current international benchmark of about $71.01 per barrel.

The refinery also clarified that its crude procurement costs are not based solely on the headline ICE Brent benchmark commonly quoted in the media.

Rather, crude is purchased on a Dated Brent basis together with applicable market premiums, freight and logistics costs, resulting in actual feedstock costs that differ materially from benchmark prices.

Despite the sharp increase in crude acquisition costs during the period, Dangote Refinery said it deliberately refrained from transferring the full impact to consumers, choosing instead to absorb a significant portion of the additional costs in order to support market stability and cushion Nigerians from the volatility in global energy markets.

The company noted that this pricing approach has helped to keep petroleum product prices in Nigeria below those prevailing in neighbouring countries, even after accounting for applicable taxes. It added that as lower priced crude cargoes progressively enter its production cycle, the refinery has begun systematically passing the benefits to the market through phased price reductions.

“Today’s N50 per litre reduction is the fourth price cut in one month, bringing cumulative reductions to above N200 per litre on PMS. This approach ensures that pricing decisions are anchored on actual production economics and inventory costs rather than short term fluctuations in international oil markets.

“Nigeria today benefits from the stabilising role of domestic refining capacity. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery currently supplies volumes sufficient to meet national demand, helping to strengthen energy security, eliminate dependence on imports, conserve foreign exchange and provide greater price stability for consumers and businesses,” the Refinery management said in the statement.

The company expressed confidence that if international crude prices remain favourable and lower cost feedstock continues to replace higher priced inventories, Nigerians should expect further moderation in petroleum product prices.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery reiterated its commitment to supplying high quality, internationally certified petroleum products at competitive prices while supporting Nigeria’s economic growth and the long-term development of the country’s downstream petroleum sector.

 

 

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