Energy
Crude oil production shrinks in September
• Yearly growth rises 1.6%
• NUPRC blames PENGASSAN strike
After rallying to steady production increase, one that bolstered the country’s hope of improved increased revenue from sales of the commodity, crude oil and condensates production for the month of September 2025 fell to an average of 1.581 million barrels per day, according to official statistics released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) yesterday.
The 1.581 million barrels per day average production in September comprises of 1.39 million bopd of crude oil and 191,373 bopd of condensate.
The NUPRC, in a statement by its Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, blamed the fall on the three-day industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which resulted in the shutdown of some production and export facilities.
Besides, the NUPRC also noted that two strategic facilities had a scheduled turnaround maintenance which led to a reduction in overall production.
Recall that PENGASSAN had called out its members on an industrial action over the sack of 800 workers by the management of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals who had joined its association.
According to its official statistics, in September, the industry recorded total crude oil and condensate production of 47.43 million barrels, reflecting a modest 1.61 per cent year-on-year increase in average daily crude oil and condensate production year on year. This represented a slight improvement over the 1.55 million bopd recorded in the same month of 2024, an uptick that suggests incremental progress.
However, when measured on a month-on-month basis, crude oil and condensate production slightly dropped by 3.09 per cent in September 2025, compared to the 1.63 million bopd recorded in August 2025. But despite the glitches experienced during the period, average crude oil production in September stood at 93 per cent of the country’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota of 1.5 million bopd.
During the review month, peak combined crude oil and condensate production hit 1.81 million bopd, while the lowest was 1.35 million bopd.
An analysis of production output by the country’s top eight streams shows that Forcados Blend accounted for 15.86 per cent of total production, while Bonny Light accounted for 13.31 per cent of September production. Qua Iboe was third accounting for 9.88 per cent; Escravos Light contributed 8.96 per cent, while Bonga Crude delivered 6.83 per cent of production in the review month.
Others were Agbami condensate which accounted for 4.94 per cent; Erha crude, which accounted for 4.55 per cent, while Amenam Blend accounted for 4.2 per cent to wrap up the production for the month in review.
Energy
Eight OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd
The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to an OPEC statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The 137,000-bpd output increase, representing a partial and gradual return of the 1.65 million bpd additional voluntary cuts announced in April 2023, was made in light of a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, reflected in low oil inventories.
The countries also reaffirmed their commitment to closely monitor market developments and maintain full flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in November 2023.
At their previous meeting on Oct. 5, the eight producers had decided to raise output by the same amount of 137,000 bpd for November.
The next meeting of the eight-member OPEC+ group is scheduled for Nov. 30. OPEC+ production cuts had reached 5.85 million bpd in March, equivalent to around 5.7% of global demand.
These cuts reflect cumulative measures announced by member countries since late 2022, including the 2 million bpd reduction in October 2022, the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut by eight members in April 2023, and the 2.2 million bpd additional voluntary reduction in November 2023.
Member countries fully returned the 2.2 million bpd cut by the end of September and began a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut in October. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Output by 137,000 bpd. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd.
Energy
Oil Prices Increase as OPEC+ Seeks to Avoid Supply Glut
Oil prices increased on Monday after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies’ members (OPEC+) moved to avoid creating a supply glut in the global commodity market.
The oil group decided to pause further production hikes for the next quarter, a step seen as an effort to prevent a potential supply glut as demand slows and tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensify.
Brent crude was trading at $65.21 per barrel, up around 1% from the previous close of $64.57. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increased by 1.1% to $61.37, compared to $60.69 in the prior session.
The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to OPEC’s statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The modest hike is part of a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and comes amid “healthy market fundamentals” and low oil inventories.
Producers also reaffirmed their commitment to monitor market conditions and to keep flexibility to pause or reverse any changes, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary reductions announced in November 2023. They previously approved a similar 137,000-bpd increase for November.
Analysts said the pause signals a pre-emptive attempt to keep the market balanced.
“This period is normally a period of lower demand, and delegates said the decision to pause from January reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note.
“We suspect they’re also aware that the market may struggle to take any additional barrels, particularly if disruptions to Russian supply end up being temporary,” Hynes added.
Meanwhile, the war between Russia and Ukraine re-escalated over the weekend, with both sides targeting each other’s energy infrastructure as winter nears, supporting prices amid supply concerns.
Moscow and Kyiv traded accusations Sunday over overnight airstrikes that killed at least two people in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region and damaged energy facilities on both sides.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said in a statement on Telegram that an overnight Russian drone attack caused a fire in a parking area filled with trucks, which was later extinguished.
In Zaporizhzhia, Governor Ivan Fedorov said nearly 58,000 people lost electricity following the attack.
Ukraine’s Air Force said its defenses downed 67 of 79 strike drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched by Russia overnight.
In Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, the local operational headquarters said on Telegram that an oil terminal and tanker in the port town of Tuapse were damaged after fragments from downed Ukrainian drones fell on the site.
“According to preliminary information, there are no injuries. Emergency services are working at the scene,” it said, adding that a nearby railway station building was also damaged. Zenith Bank Price Target Sets at N81 after Q3 Earnings
Energy
NMDPRA urges decentralisation in downstream market
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has called on investors to explore the northern region of the country for investments in energy growth. It said the region presents huge opportunities essential for Nigeria’s energy growth and economic balance, considering its vast population and growing demand for energy. It therefore urged investors in the oil and gas industry to diversify operations and expand beyond the South-South and South-West regions of the country.
The Executive Director, Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning (ERSP) at NMDPRA, Prof. Zainab Gobir, made the appeal during the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2025 which ended at the weekend in Lagos.
According to her, investors must rethink their business models and explore opportunities across all geopolitical zones to ensure equitable participation and sustainable energy access nationwide.
“The numbers exist across all regions; not just in the South. Population and available volumes in other regions matter and companies must model their operations around this reality to optimise margins and logistics,” he said.
Gobir disclosed that the Authority was leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics to enhance transparency, efficiency and investor engagement across Nigeria’s midstream and downstream oil and gas sectors.
“We are deploying AI for data collection and integrating it into our operations. We are taking feedback from Nigerians to identify bottlenecks and improve regulatory performance. Soon, consumers will be able to see pricing data in real time and choose the retail outlets they prefer,” she said.
According to her, the NMDPRA has automated key regulatory processes to improve operational efficiency, compliance monitoring and customer experience. She revealed that most of the Authority’s processes have been digitised and also activated customer platforms that follow all necessary licensing and qualification procedures.
“Through predictive and regression analysis, we can now understand the peculiarities of each oil and gas segment and respond proactively,” she revealed.
According to Gobir, the NMDPRA is developing a comprehensive data bank to give operators access to real-time market information and business intelligence.
“Our goal is to make data accessible. We are working on a platform where operators can track market trends and make informed business decisions.
“We have also automated our investment portal where prospective investors can register and join monthly roundtables to explore new opportunities in the sector.”
Gobir revealed that the Authority’s consumer experience platform has also been automated to allow the public to directly report market issues and engage with regulators.
Speaking on the impact of technology on regulation, Gobir described automation as inevitable, warning that operators who failed to adopt AI-driven systems risk being left behind.
“Automation is now a necessity. AI is not here to replace people but to enhance monitoring and improve accountability. It is a tool to help scale the market and drive sustainable growth,” she explained.
She said that Nigeria’s downstream market was both data-driven and population-driven, noting that taxation, logistics and market reach depend heavily on accurate demographic and operational data.
“Taxation is not only about the amount paid but also about the volume and reach of operations. Understanding population dynamics helps determine how far products like petrol and gas can go efficiently,” she added.
Gobir noted that the NMDPRA was evolving from a traditional regulator into a business enabler, and supporting small and medium-sized operators to scale up through technology and data access.
“We are helping MSMEs connect with customers. For instance, in the LPG sector, when operators provide their data, it allows consumers to locate the nearest LPG depot through our portal, (thus) increasing visibility, compliance, and business growth,” she said.
The Executive Director announced that NMDPRA was opening its systems to third-party data integration to foster inclusivity and improve market intelligence.
“We are now accepting third-party data to strengthen our automated system and ensure better market monitoring and inclusiveness,” Gobir said.
She reiterated the commitment of NMDPRA to promoting transparency, innovation, and regional equity in the downstream oil and gas industry as part of Nigeria’s broader push towards sustainable energy development.
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