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Economy

Marketers, stakeholders, warn against 15% petrol tax suspension

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• Reversal will trigger rise in forex, says Dr. Yusuf
• Policy is fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, says Prof Iledare

Experts and other stakeholders yesterday warned the country of jeopardisng long term national interests for short term measures. The experts, including economists, oil marketers, chambers of commerce and industry leaders, and other stakeholders, were reacting to the suspension of the of the implementation of the 15 per cent ad valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel by the federal government.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), in a statement posted on its X handle had informed the public of government’s suspension of the implementation of the tax.
“It should also be noted that the implementation of the 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel is no longer in view,” the Director, Public Affairs Department, NMDPRA, George Ene-Ita, said in the post.
“Nigeria must avoid short-term measures that jeopardise long-term national interests. The suspension of the 15 per cent import duty on petroleum products puts at risk energy security; industrialization; foreign exchange stability; job creation; backward integration and national economic sovereignty.
“Therefore, protecting domestic refining capacity is an urgent national imperative. Reinstating protective measures, supporting local refiners, ensuring policy predictability and regulating import volumes are essential steps toward securing Nigeria’s industrial future,” the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, in a statement made available to TheTrustNews.com, yesterday.
For professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, the 15 per cent import duty should have been viewed as a fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, not a political gesture.
While some stakeholders see the development as a step in the right direction, yet, others argued that it is a disservice to local refinery, investment in the sector and by extension, a negative for the country’s overall economy.
For the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), the suspension of the tax will affect sector and economy in both the short and long term.
“Well, if we view the suspension for the immediate gain, then we can say it is a good development; but for the future, it is not a good development. The reason is that provided that there is no tax or charges on the imports, our local refineries will not be patronised because their product will be a little bit costlier than imported products,” IPMAN President, Abubakar Maigandi, told TheTrustNews.com in a telephone chat at the weekend.
Yet another oil marketer who pleaded anonymity, agreed that government should go ahead with the implementation of the tax if only for the benefits it offers. These benefits our source listed to include reduced pressure on foreign exchange considering that importation of petroleum products is dollar denominated.
“The truth and reality is that government should implement that 15 per cent tax on petroleum products importation because it will help our economy. The reason why you see Naira now a little bit stable compared to before, is because of the reduction of purchasing outside. And if we want to encourage the Nigerian company, actually we have to, the government has to do that; they have to put that tax.
“This is a reality, but you know people don’t want to hear it, they put politics into it and is not good for our economy. The 15 per cent tax on fuel import will help the indigenous companies or refineries- all these refineries just coming up, people doing business; it will encourage them to do business, an foreign investors too will come into the sector with the needed investment,” the source, a high ranking stakeholder in the oil industry, said.
On fears that there could be fuel shortage as the yuletide approaches if the policy is implemented, the CPPE boss argued that while domestic refineries are expected to meet national demand within a short horizon, temporary supply gaps should be addressed not by dismantling protective measures but through guided, quota-based importation to supplement domestic output.
Yusuf noted that the suspension of the 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel carries profound implications for domestic refining, investment confidence, macroeconomic stability and the long-term competitiveness of the petroleum downstream sector.
He called for the reinstatement of the tax which he described as “essential to restoring competitive balance and safeguarding domestic refining investments.” According to him, the policy was aimed to serve as an industrial protection instrument designed to support emerging private refineries; promote backward integration and industrial development; ensure a level playing field for domestic producers; conserve scarce foreign exchange; protect jobs, stimulate local value addition; reduce exposure to global supply instability and encourage long-term investments in refining and petrochemicals
These objectives, laudable as they are, are now being threatened with the policy suspension. For instance, Dr. Yusuf noted that investors, including the Dangote Refinery and other modular refinery operators, made multi-billion-dollar commitments based on policy stability and the assurance of an environment that rewards local production. Therefore, he argued, suspending the duty undermines this protective framework and exposes domestic refiners to inequitable competition from importers benefiting from vastly superior international conditions.
According to the CPPE boss, local refiners operate within a high-cost environment shaped by expensive energy and self-generation; infrastructure gaps and logistics bottlenecks; high cost of capital; security-related risks and inefficiencies in ports and transport systems. These structural disadvantages, he argued, make parity with imported products impossible without protective measures.
He warned that reverting to heavy import dependence reopens vulnerabilities to global price volatility, geopolitical disruptions and supply insecurity- the same conditions that previously collapsed public refineries and created a fiscally ruinous subsidy regime.
Yusuf, an economist, equally agreed that petroleum importation is one of Nigeria’s largest consumers of foreign exchange. Consequently, he explained that increased imports of the product will heighten pressure on the naira; fuel inflation through exchange-rate pass-through; deepen balance-of-payments deficits and undermine macroeconomic stability.
This, he said will further come with loss of jobs and industrial value chains given that domestic refining stimulates broad value-chain activities in petrochemicals; plastics; logistics and transport; engineering services and fabrication and construction. Therefore, having an unrestrained importation effectively exports these jobs and opportunities to foreign economies.
The CPPE warned that frequent policy reversals weaken investor sentiment across the economy including refining and downstream operations; domestic manufacturing; financial institutions and global investment partners.
“Undermining confidence at this stage threatens the viability of transformational national assets such as the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries,” Dr. Yusuf said.
Justifying the need to protect indigenous firms, the CPPE boss explained that fair competition requires comparable operating conditions. He enumerated the challenges faced by Nigerian refiners to include infrastructure deficits; higher finance costs; insecure operating environments; elevated logistics costs and demurrage and weak transport and storage systems.
“Importers face none of these disadvantages. Without protective measures, domestic refiners operate at a structural disadvantage. The Dangote Refinery and emerging modular refineries are transformative national assets. Safeguarding them aligns squarely with Nigeria’s long-term economic and strategic goals,” the CPPE said.
He cited major economies that protects their strategic industries to include the United States which jealously guards her steel, agriculture, aviation, energy sectors; European Union which protects its manufacturing, agriculture, pharmaceuticals; India guards her refining and petrochemicals and China, which devised a comprehensive industrial policy to protect local capacity.
“Nigeria already maintains an Import Adjustment Tax List for strategic sectors such as agro allied, cement, sugar, steel, pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Therefore, extending similar protection to domestic refining is both logical and necessary,” Dr. Yusuf said.
He further argued that there exists a false dichotomy between domestic refining and price stability. “Strengthening refining capacity and moderating fuel prices are not mutually exclusive. With the right policy mix—including fiscal incentives, logistics support, transparent pricing and guided importation, Nigeria can achieve both goals simultaneously, because domestic refining, over the long term, reduces costs by limiting forex exposure, import-related logistics and premiums associated with global volatility,” Dr. Yusuf said.
In similar vein, the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA) also faulted the Federal Government’s decision to suspend the proposed implementation of the 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel imports. It insisted that the rescinding of the policy could slow down the nation’s progress toward energy independence and weaken investor confidence in the refining sector.
“The suspension of the 15 per cent fuel import tariff is disappointing. The policy was a step in the right direction to promote local refining, reduce dependence on imports, conserve foreign exchange and create a fair competitive environment for domestic producers. Its reversal sends a wrong signal to investors who have shown confidence in Nigeria’s energy sector,” OGUNCCIMA’s President, Niyi Oshiyemi, said.
A professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, argued that the 15 per cent import duty should have been viewed as a fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, not a political gesture.
“The intent is clear — to protect emerging local refineries, encourage domestic value addition, and gradually align Nigeria’s downstream market with its growing industrial capacity. In economic terms, this policy aimed to reduce import dependence, conserve foreign exchange, and support refinery viability. Domestic producers like Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated NNPC plants need a short breathing space to stabilise operations and recover heavy capital investments. Many countries have used such temporary tariffs to nurture new industries.
“Of course, prices may rise slightly in the short term — but that’s part of the transition toward long-term efficiency where Nigeria meets its own fuel needs competitively. Let’s keep things in perspective: petrol here sells around N890–N965 per litre, while in Benin N1,800–N1,875, Togo N1,835, Ghana N1,550–N1,995, and Senegal N2,538. Nigeria still remains the lowest-priced market in the sub-region. The task now is ensuring border vigilance and market discipline to prevent arbitrage,” he contended.

Economy

Budget 2026: Government places hold on new capital projects

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• Caps spending at 70%
The Federal Government has released the 2026 Budget Call Circular, setting strict guidelines for Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) as they prepare next year’s spending proposals.
A major component of the circular is the decision to fix sectoral capital budget ceilings for 2026 at 70 percent of the capital allocations approved for each MDA in the 2025 fiscal year.
According to the circular signed by the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, the new framework means government has already determined how much every MDA can spend on capital projects in 2026. Each department’s budget ceiling for 2026 will be 70 percent of what they were given to spend on projects in 2025.
The minister stated that the approach is tied to the administration’s plan to release 30 percent of the 2025 capital budget within the current fiscal year. The remaining 70 percent will be retained as the foundation for the 2026 capital budget rather than rolled over through the usual extension process.
Under the new rules, MDAs must restrict their 2026 submissions to only projects and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) codes contained in the approved 2025 budget.
“Submissions that exceed the 70 percent ceiling or include unapproved new projects will be considered non-compliant,” the document warned, adding that the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) will adjust any such proposals to align with the approved limits.
On overheads, the circular directed MDAs to work strictly within their 2025 overhead ceilings as contained in the Executive Proposal. While acknowledging the impact of inflation on operational costs, the government noted ongoing revenue pressures. Nonetheless, Bagudu assured that efforts will continue “to achieve full release of the overhead budget.”
The circular further instructed MDAs to upload 70 percent of their 2025 capital budget for continuation in 2026. These rollovers must reflect the country’s most urgent needs and align with the administration’s priorities in national security, the economy, education, health, agriculture, infrastructure, power and energy, social safety nets, and women and youth empowerment.
“All Ministers/Chief Executives/Accounting Officers and other officers responsible for budget preparation are advised to read this Budget Call Circular carefully,” the circular stated. Bagudu added, “All are also enjoined to strictly adhere to these guidelines and instructions including, but not limited to, the revenue and cost optimisation measures indicated herein.”
The minister stressed that the 2026 budget must reflect the policies and strategies set out in the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, which serves as the Federal Government’s pre-budget statement.
He noted that global and domestic economic indicators point toward gradually improving activity, which informs the medium-term revenue and expenditure outlook.
Bagudu said the government remains committed to improving the efficiency and quality of public spending. He explained that federal expenditure will continue to undergo rigorous scrutiny to ensure only essential activities are funded and that value for money is achieved. He also noted ongoing reforms to strengthen budget formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.
As part of the preparation process, the 2026 budget will be compiled using the Budget Preparation Subsystem (BPS) on the GIFMIS platform. All MDAs are required to prepare and submit their budget proposals through the online system. He disclosed that relevant personnel will be re-trained to ensure they can use the platform effectively.
The BOF has already prepared personnel cost estimates for each MDA using data from the Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System (IPPIS) and earlier submissions. “Each MDA will be advised accordingly of its personnel cost budget for FY 2026,” the ministry said.
To support MDAs during the process, the BOF confirmed that assigned schedule and sector officers will be available to offer technical assistance. The Budget Help-Desk will also provide online support via 08000-CALLBOF (08000 2255 263) or through the BOF website.
MDAs with access to the Galaxy Backbone IP-phone system may also call 595186, 595193, or 595194. However, the circular made it clear that ultimate responsibility rests with agency heads. “The Chief Executive/Accounting Officer of each MDA takes responsibility for proper preparation and prompt submission of its budget,” it stated.
All Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) must submit their budgets via the Budget Information Management and Monitoring System (BIMMS) by Tuesday, 9 December 2025. MDAs using the GIFMIS BPS platform are also to complete their submissions by the same deadline. The circular noted that it is not the duty of Budget Officers to upload budgets on behalf of any MDA or GOE.
The minister directed every Minister, Chief Executive and Accounting Officer to immediately share the circular with all parastatals and agencies under their supervision to ensure full compliance with the guidelines ahead of the 2026 budget cycle.

 

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Nigeria nets N2.06 trillion VAT in Q2 2025, says NBS

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the aggregate Value Added Tax (VAT) stood at N2.06 trillion in Q2 2025. This is according to the VAT Q2 2025 Report released in Abuja on Tuesday.
The report shows a decrease of 0.03 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis from N2.06 trillion recorded in Q1 2025.
The report also showed that local payments recorded were N1.09 trillion while foreign VAT payments contributed N459.95 billion, while import VAT contributed N508.55 billion in Q2 2025.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the report showed that real estate activities recorded the highest growth rate at 155.21 per cent , followed by the activities of Agriculture, forestry and fishing at 23.64 per cent.
This was followed by Information and communication at 17.75 per cent .
“On the other hand, human health and social work activities had the lowest growth rate at –68.34 per cent , followed by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply with – 45.20 per cent.
“This was followed by Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities at –29.36 per cent.”
In terms of sectoral contributions, the report showed the top three activities with the largest shares in Q2 2025 were manufacturing at 27.19 per cent, information and communication at 20.76 per cent and mining and quarrying at 15.04 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share at 0.005 per cent.
“This was followed by activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies at 0.02 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management at 0.03 per cent.”
However, on a year-on-year basis, it showed that VAT collections in Q2 2025, increased by 32.15 per cent from Q2 2024.
Meanwhile the aggregate VAT for Q1 2025 stood at N2.06 trillion, showing an increase of 6.02 per cent from the N1.95 religion recorded in Q4 2024.
According to the VAT Q1 2025 report local payments recorded were N1.10trillion while foreign VAT payments contributed N454.76 billion, while import VAT contributed N507.00 billion.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the report showed that electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the highest growth rate at 136.71 per cent , followed by the activities of administrative and support service activities at 45.24 per cent . This was followed by Professional, scientific and technical activities at 39.00 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies had the lowest growth rate at 35.70 per cent , followed by wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; and real estate activities at –14.51 per cent and –11.54 per cent , respectively. ”
In terms of sectoral contributions, the top three activities with the largest shares in Q1 2025 were manufacturing at 26.03 per cent, information and communication at 17.51 per cent and mining and quarrying at 17.02 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share at 0.004 per cent.
“This was followed by activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies at 0.02 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management at 0.04 per cent.”
However, on a year-on-year basis, it showed that VAT collections in Q1 2025, increased by 44.24 per cent from Q1 2024.

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ICPC: Tax evasion, cybercrime, others fuel Africa’s $50b yearly financial leak

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By Grace Edet

Africa is losing more than $50 billion every year to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a drain that is stifling development, eroding public revenues and undermining the continent’s long-term economic goals, the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has warned.
ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Aliyu, gave the warning on Wednesday at the RealNews Magazine 13th Anniversary Lecture in Lagos, where he described the persistent capital flight as “one of the most devastating drains on Africa’s development capacity.”
According to him, the lost funds—diverted through tax evasion, corruption, illegal mining, wildlife trafficking, profit shifting, and cyber-enabled crime, could have financed schools, hospitals, roads and other critical public infrastructure.
He said: “Illicit financial flows, whether through tax evasion, corruption or cybercrime, have become a silent crisis that threatens Africa’s sovereignty and the future of its youth.”
Aliyu disclosed that ICPC investigations have exposed cases where multinational corporations manipulated trade figures and inflated operating costs to evade taxes. In one instance, he said, a major firm exaggerated its expenses to shrink its taxable profit, adding: “The amount lost would have been enough to construct a world-class hospital in Nigeria.”
He described trade mispricing, profit shifting and tax evasion as “some of the biggest contributors to financial leakages,” noting that corrupt officials also worsened the crisis by diverting public funds through multiple bank accounts, often with the collusion of financial institutions.
The ICPC chairman warned that Africa’s rapid digital transition, where mobile-money usage has surpassed 50 percent in several countries, has exposed the region to an unprecedented wave of cyber-enabled crimes.
He said: “Cyber criminals are becoming more sophisticated. Ransomware attacks, cryptocurrency-based laundering and mobile-money fraud are growing threats.”
Aliyu added that criminal networks often possess more advanced tools and resources than enforcement agencies, making it increasingly difficult to track stolen funds once they leave African jurisdictions. He also highlighted ongoing ICPC investigations into ghost-worker syndicates manipulating payroll systems to divert salaries.
To curb the losses, he urged the National Assembly to speed up the passage of the Whistleblower Protection Bill, stressing that citizens cannot provide critical intelligence “if they are not protected.”
He also called for stronger cyber laws, improved digital infrastructure, dedicated training for enforcement agencies, and full implementation of the Malabo Convention on Cybersecurity and Data Protection.
He emphasised the need for African countries to adopt a coordinated approach to asset recovery and demand the return of looted funds and cultural artefacts held abroad.
“We must secure our financial systems and protect our digital space. Only then can Africa realise its full potential,” he said.
Chairperson of the event and former Chief Judge of Lagos State, Justice Ayotunde Phillips, also urged African governments and the private sector to prioritise the continent’s development and cybersecurity agenda.
She warned that growing vulnerabilities in digital transactions were worsening capital flight from the continent, stressing: “We should not joke with this; progress requires commitment from both government and private actors.”
Phillips said Africa had the capacity to strengthen its economic and security frameworks, but success would depend on consistency and serious implementation of agreed plans.

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