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Marketers, stakeholders, warn against 15% petrol tax suspension

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• Reversal will trigger rise in forex, says Dr. Yusuf
• Policy is fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, says Prof Iledare

Experts and other stakeholders yesterday warned the country of jeopardisng long term national interests for short term measures. The experts, including economists, oil marketers, chambers of commerce and industry leaders, and other stakeholders, were reacting to the suspension of the of the implementation of the 15 per cent ad valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel by the federal government.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), in a statement posted on its X handle had informed the public of government’s suspension of the implementation of the tax.
“It should also be noted that the implementation of the 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on imported Premium Motor Spirit and Diesel is no longer in view,” the Director, Public Affairs Department, NMDPRA, George Ene-Ita, said in the post.
“Nigeria must avoid short-term measures that jeopardise long-term national interests. The suspension of the 15 per cent import duty on petroleum products puts at risk energy security; industrialization; foreign exchange stability; job creation; backward integration and national economic sovereignty.
“Therefore, protecting domestic refining capacity is an urgent national imperative. Reinstating protective measures, supporting local refiners, ensuring policy predictability and regulating import volumes are essential steps toward securing Nigeria’s industrial future,” the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, in a statement made available to TheTrustNews.com, yesterday.
For professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, the 15 per cent import duty should have been viewed as a fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, not a political gesture.
While some stakeholders see the development as a step in the right direction, yet, others argued that it is a disservice to local refinery, investment in the sector and by extension, a negative for the country’s overall economy.
For the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), the suspension of the tax will affect sector and economy in both the short and long term.
“Well, if we view the suspension for the immediate gain, then we can say it is a good development; but for the future, it is not a good development. The reason is that provided that there is no tax or charges on the imports, our local refineries will not be patronised because their product will be a little bit costlier than imported products,” IPMAN President, Abubakar Maigandi, told TheTrustNews.com in a telephone chat at the weekend.
Yet another oil marketer who pleaded anonymity, agreed that government should go ahead with the implementation of the tax if only for the benefits it offers. These benefits our source listed to include reduced pressure on foreign exchange considering that importation of petroleum products is dollar denominated.
“The truth and reality is that government should implement that 15 per cent tax on petroleum products importation because it will help our economy. The reason why you see Naira now a little bit stable compared to before, is because of the reduction of purchasing outside. And if we want to encourage the Nigerian company, actually we have to, the government has to do that; they have to put that tax.
“This is a reality, but you know people don’t want to hear it, they put politics into it and is not good for our economy. The 15 per cent tax on fuel import will help the indigenous companies or refineries- all these refineries just coming up, people doing business; it will encourage them to do business, an foreign investors too will come into the sector with the needed investment,” the source, a high ranking stakeholder in the oil industry, said.
On fears that there could be fuel shortage as the yuletide approaches if the policy is implemented, the CPPE boss argued that while domestic refineries are expected to meet national demand within a short horizon, temporary supply gaps should be addressed not by dismantling protective measures but through guided, quota-based importation to supplement domestic output.
Yusuf noted that the suspension of the 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel carries profound implications for domestic refining, investment confidence, macroeconomic stability and the long-term competitiveness of the petroleum downstream sector.
He called for the reinstatement of the tax which he described as “essential to restoring competitive balance and safeguarding domestic refining investments.” According to him, the policy was aimed to serve as an industrial protection instrument designed to support emerging private refineries; promote backward integration and industrial development; ensure a level playing field for domestic producers; conserve scarce foreign exchange; protect jobs, stimulate local value addition; reduce exposure to global supply instability and encourage long-term investments in refining and petrochemicals
These objectives, laudable as they are, are now being threatened with the policy suspension. For instance, Dr. Yusuf noted that investors, including the Dangote Refinery and other modular refinery operators, made multi-billion-dollar commitments based on policy stability and the assurance of an environment that rewards local production. Therefore, he argued, suspending the duty undermines this protective framework and exposes domestic refiners to inequitable competition from importers benefiting from vastly superior international conditions.
According to the CPPE boss, local refiners operate within a high-cost environment shaped by expensive energy and self-generation; infrastructure gaps and logistics bottlenecks; high cost of capital; security-related risks and inefficiencies in ports and transport systems. These structural disadvantages, he argued, make parity with imported products impossible without protective measures.
He warned that reverting to heavy import dependence reopens vulnerabilities to global price volatility, geopolitical disruptions and supply insecurity- the same conditions that previously collapsed public refineries and created a fiscally ruinous subsidy regime.
Yusuf, an economist, equally agreed that petroleum importation is one of Nigeria’s largest consumers of foreign exchange. Consequently, he explained that increased imports of the product will heighten pressure on the naira; fuel inflation through exchange-rate pass-through; deepen balance-of-payments deficits and undermine macroeconomic stability.
This, he said will further come with loss of jobs and industrial value chains given that domestic refining stimulates broad value-chain activities in petrochemicals; plastics; logistics and transport; engineering services and fabrication and construction. Therefore, having an unrestrained importation effectively exports these jobs and opportunities to foreign economies.
The CPPE warned that frequent policy reversals weaken investor sentiment across the economy including refining and downstream operations; domestic manufacturing; financial institutions and global investment partners.
“Undermining confidence at this stage threatens the viability of transformational national assets such as the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries,” Dr. Yusuf said.
Justifying the need to protect indigenous firms, the CPPE boss explained that fair competition requires comparable operating conditions. He enumerated the challenges faced by Nigerian refiners to include infrastructure deficits; higher finance costs; insecure operating environments; elevated logistics costs and demurrage and weak transport and storage systems.
“Importers face none of these disadvantages. Without protective measures, domestic refiners operate at a structural disadvantage. The Dangote Refinery and emerging modular refineries are transformative national assets. Safeguarding them aligns squarely with Nigeria’s long-term economic and strategic goals,” the CPPE said.
He cited major economies that protects their strategic industries to include the United States which jealously guards her steel, agriculture, aviation, energy sectors; European Union which protects its manufacturing, agriculture, pharmaceuticals; India guards her refining and petrochemicals and China, which devised a comprehensive industrial policy to protect local capacity.
“Nigeria already maintains an Import Adjustment Tax List for strategic sectors such as agro allied, cement, sugar, steel, pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Therefore, extending similar protection to domestic refining is both logical and necessary,” Dr. Yusuf said.
He further argued that there exists a false dichotomy between domestic refining and price stability. “Strengthening refining capacity and moderating fuel prices are not mutually exclusive. With the right policy mix—including fiscal incentives, logistics support, transparent pricing and guided importation, Nigeria can achieve both goals simultaneously, because domestic refining, over the long term, reduces costs by limiting forex exposure, import-related logistics and premiums associated with global volatility,” Dr. Yusuf said.
In similar vein, the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA) also faulted the Federal Government’s decision to suspend the proposed implementation of the 15 per cent import duty on petrol and diesel imports. It insisted that the rescinding of the policy could slow down the nation’s progress toward energy independence and weaken investor confidence in the refining sector.
“The suspension of the 15 per cent fuel import tariff is disappointing. The policy was a step in the right direction to promote local refining, reduce dependence on imports, conserve foreign exchange and create a fair competitive environment for domestic producers. Its reversal sends a wrong signal to investors who have shown confidence in Nigeria’s energy sector,” OGUNCCIMA’s President, Niyi Oshiyemi, said.
A professor of petroleum economics, Prof. Wumi Iledare, argued that the 15 per cent import duty should have been viewed as a fiscal and market-stabilising instrument, not a political gesture.
“The intent is clear — to protect emerging local refineries, encourage domestic value addition, and gradually align Nigeria’s downstream market with its growing industrial capacity. In economic terms, this policy aimed to reduce import dependence, conserve foreign exchange, and support refinery viability. Domestic producers like Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated NNPC plants need a short breathing space to stabilise operations and recover heavy capital investments. Many countries have used such temporary tariffs to nurture new industries.
“Of course, prices may rise slightly in the short term — but that’s part of the transition toward long-term efficiency where Nigeria meets its own fuel needs competitively. Let’s keep things in perspective: petrol here sells around N890–N965 per litre, while in Benin N1,800–N1,875, Togo N1,835, Ghana N1,550–N1,995, and Senegal N2,538. Nigeria still remains the lowest-priced market in the sub-region. The task now is ensuring border vigilance and market discipline to prevent arbitrage,” he contended.

Economy

Invest Lagos 3.0: Shettima, Sanwo-Olu market Lagos as Africa’s gateway to global investment

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‎Vice President Kashim Shettima and Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has projected Lagos as Africa’s foremost investment destination, describing the state as the continent’s gateway to global wealth, trade and economic opportunities.

‎They spoke at the opening ceremony of Invest Lagos 3.0 held at Eko Hotels and Suites, Victoria Island, where policymakers, investors, development finance institutions and business leaders gathered to explore investment opportunities across key sectors of the economy.

‎Speaking on the theme: “Lagos: The Business Gateway to Africa, Powering Africa’s Next Era of Trade, Talent and Global Economic Leadership,” Shettima said Lagos was increasingly emerging as Africa’s gateway to global wealth and a strategic hub for international investors seeking access to the continent’s expanding markets.

‎According to him, Nigeria possesses the demographic strength, entrepreneurial talent and economic potential to rank among the world’s largest economies by 2050, provided the country continues to invest in innovation, infrastructure and effective leadership.

‎He noted that Lagos had sustained its position as Africa’s commercial nerve centre through deliberate policies, strong institutions and a business-friendly environment that continues to attract multinational corporations and foreign investments.

‎The Vice President also reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to collaborating with states and the private sector to improve infrastructure, expand trade opportunities and strengthen the ease of doing business across the country.

‎In his keynote address, Governor Sanwo-Olu said Lagos had evolved significantly since the inaugural edition of the summit in 2024 and was strategically positioned to leverage opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

‎He noted that with a population exceeding 23 million and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at about $259 billion measured by purchasing power parity, Lagos remains the largest sub-national economy within the AfCFTA bloc.

‎”We are announcing to the world that if you want to reach Africa and benefit from its boundless market and economic potential, Lagos offers the most viable and appealing route,” the governor said.

‎Sanwo-Olu highlighted Lagos’ economic credentials, noting that the state handles about 70 per cent of Nigeria’s sea freight activities, hosts the country’s leading financial institutions and boasts one of Africa’s most vibrant startup ecosystems.

‎The governor outlined major infrastructure projects undertaken by his administration, including the Blue and Red Rail Lines, the operationalisation of the Lekki Deep Sea Port, the ongoing construction of the Fourth Mainland Bridge and plans for the Lekki-Epe International Airport.

‎He added that investments in agriculture, technology and logistics were transforming Lagos into a regional hub for food security and digital innovation.

‎Sanwo-Olu pointed to the emergence of globally recognised technology firms such as Flutterwave, Moniepoint, Andela and Interswitch as evidence of Lagos’ growing influence in Africa’s digital economy.

‎He also disclosed that the Lagos International Financial Centre (LIFC) project was progressing steadily and would serve as a major financial gateway connecting Africa to global capital markets.

‎The governor further revealed that Lagos had secured hosting rights for the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) 2027, describing both developments as evidence of growing international confidence in the state.

‎According to him, the summit’s deal rooms were deliberately designed to facilitate investment decisions and mobilise financing for critical projects.

‎”The singular goal is to spotlight and mobilise financing for the most consequential investment decisions across the public and private sectors that Nigeria has ever seen,” he said.

‎Sanwo-Olu added that the success of the summit would be measured not by attendance figures or speeches, but by investments capable of creating jobs and transforming lives.

‎Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said ongoing fiscal and tax reforms were improving Nigeria’s investment climate, boosting investor confidence and creating new opportunities for economic growth across states.

‎Also speaking, Commonwealth Secretary-General Shirley Botchwey called for stronger regional cooperation through improved power supply, efficient logistics systems and enhanced security across Africa.

‎She urged African leaders to harness innovation and human capital as drivers of job creation and sustainable development.

‎Delivering the welcome address, Lagos State Commissioner for Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment, Folashade Ambrose-Medebem, described the summit as a strong vote of confidence in Lagos and its economic potential.

‎She said delegates, investors, business leaders and development partners from Nigeria, Africa, the Commonwealth and other parts of the world had gathered to explore opportunities in Africa’s largest commercial city.

‎According to her, Lagos remains Nigeria’s economic powerhouse and one of the world’s fastest-growing megacities, accounting for a significant share of national GDP while attracting the highest volume of domestic and foreign investments.

‎”Lagos is open for business, open for partnerships and open for investments. The opportunities are here, the market is here, the talent is here and the leadership is here,” she said.

‎Chairman of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC), Lord Marland, described Nigeria as a country with immense entrepreneurial potential and a critical player in Africa’s economic future.

‎He commended ongoing economic reforms and expressed optimism about Nigeria’s investment climate, noting that Lagos was well positioned to attract greater investment flows from across the Commonwealth and beyond.

‎A major highlight of the summit was the Governors’ Investment Showcase, where governors from Lagos, Abia, Imo, Nasarawa and Plateau states presented investment opportunities in key sectors of their economies.

‎The two-day summit was convened by the Lagos State Government in partnership with the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC) to deepen investment partnerships and position Lagos as the preferred gateway to Africa’s next phase of economic growth.

 

 

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‘Nigeria must avoid policy that undermines domestic refining,’ Dr. Yusuf warns

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The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise [CPPE] yesterday expressed concerns over what it called the “growing advocacy for unbridled importation of petroleum products.”

 

The Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, noted that such advocacy is particularly of concern especially at this period when the country should be consolidating domestic refining capacity and accelerating its industrialisation journey.

 

According to him, prosperous economies are built on production, refining, manufacturing, value addition and the strengthening of domestic productive capacity, noting that countries that become excessively dependent on imports inevitably export jobs, weaken domestic industries, erode local investments and mortgage their economic sovereignty.

 

The CPPE boss warned that excessive import dependence was one of the major factors that pushed Nigeria’s foreign exchange market dangerously close to systemic distress before the recent reforms of the current administration restored stability and improved investor confidence. He therefore said it would be economically imprudent to recreate the very conditions that previously weakened the economy.

 

“This debate goes far beyond petroleum products. It speaks to the very architecture of Nigeria’s economic philosophy, the future of industrialisation, the resilience of the macroeconomy and, ultimately, the preservation of the country’s economic sovereignty. No nation has ever imported its way to industrial greatness. Nigeria must therefore avoid drifting into a policy regime that undermines domestic production in the name of competition or liberalization,” Dr. Yusuf warned.

 

Yusuf, an economist and financial analyst, said that import dependence carries profound economic consequences. He recalled that for decades, Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products created deep distortions within the economy, exerting enormous pressure on foreign reserves, weakened the naira, accelerated the collapse of domestic refineries, entrenched a rent-seeking ecosystem, worsened FX illiquidity, fuelled corruption within the subsidy regime and imposed severe fiscal burdens on public finances.

 

At the height of the fuel subsidy era, he further argued, the country spent trillions of naira annually subsidising imported fuel, thereby effectively transferring national wealth, jobs, industrial opportunities and value creation to foreign economies and their local collaborators. “The country was also spending over $10 billion annually on petroleum product imports. The consequences were severe and far-reaching- persistent pressure on the exchange rate; widening trade deficits; weak industrial competitiveness; massive fiscal leakages; investor uncertainty and macroeconomic fragility,” he noted.

 

According to him, the current policy conversation around petroleum product imports appears fundamentally inconsistent with Nigeria’s industrial aspirations. Nigeria, he said, has just witnessed one of the most consequential industrial investments in Africa through the establishment of the Dangote Refinery, alongside growing investments in modular refineries across the country.

 

These investments, he argued, should ordinarily be strategically supported, celebrated and strengthened, instead of the mounting pressure for unrestricted importation of refined petroleum products- a policy orientation capable of undermining domestic refining investments and discouraging future industrial commitments.

 

“What message are we sending to investors if a multi-billion-dollar refinery investment of continental significance is confronted with regulatory uncertainty and policy headwinds? The pathway to competition is not the promotion of imports. The pathway to competition is the encouragement of additional domestic refining investments. A country that cannot refine its own petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer exposes itself to profound economic vulnerability. Energy security is national security. A nation that persistently imports what it should ordinarily produce locally gradually weakens its productive base, destroys industrial capabilities and compromises long-term economic stability,” Dr. Yusuf argued.

 

Buttressing his position further, he noted that advocacy for fiscal protection of domestic refining is neither unusual nor extraordinary because every serious economy protects its strategic sectors. For instance, he cited the United States is deploying tariffs and industrial subsidies to support manufacturing competitiveness. China aggressively protects strategic industries. Europe is increasingly embracing industrial policy intervention. India continues to deepen domestic manufacturing through its “Made in India” agenda.

 

“Industrialisation has never been built on extreme liberalisation. No nation develops by turning itself into an attractive destination for imported goods. Self-reliance is not economic isolationism. It is economic pragmatism anchored on national interest. It is the deliberate strengthening of domestic productive capacity in order to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and reinforce long-term economic resilience,” the CPPE argued.

 

He noted that Nigeria already provides varying degrees of tariff and fiscal protection to several manufacturing subsectors under existing fiscal policy frameworks. For instance,there is currently an Import Adjustment Tax covering 192 tariff lines designed to support domestic industries, including: Pharmaceuticals, Textiles, Chemicals and allied products, Iron and steel, Cement, Ceramics and sanitary wares, Furniture, Food processing, Automobile assembly, Wires and cables, Soap and detergents and many more.

 

“The same strategic policy support should naturally extend to domestic refining because refining is not merely a commercial activity; it is a critical industrial, economic and national security investment,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.

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Economy

EIU report: Dangote Refinery ends Nigeria’s era of fuel import dependence, boosts GDP, FX earnings

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The operational ramp up of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is fundamentally reshaping Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, significantly reducing the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and strengthening its external position, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

 

In its latest assessment on Nigeria’s fuel market and regulatory environment, the EIU said the refinery has already transformed a sector that was previously characterised by heavy reliance on imported fuel despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The report noted that the refinery met nearly 80 per cent of domestic petrol demand in April and produced enough volumes to satisfy local consumption requirements as operations approached full capacity.

 

The EIU described Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector before the refinery as “long dysfunctional”, noting that the country had remained almost entirely dependent on costly imported fuel while producing nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil daily.

According to the report, the emergence of the refinery has reduced import dependence, improved domestic fuel availability and strengthened Nigeria’s balance of payments position through lower import demand and rising exports of refined petroleum products. “The gradual ramp up of the 650,000 barrel/day Dangote refinery since May 2023 has transformed Nigeria’s long dysfunctional downstream sector,” the report stated. “The country’s main refineries, all state owned, had been inoperative for years and Nigeria was almost entirely reliant on costly imported fuel.”

 

The EIU, a research and analysis division of The Economist Group, London, added that the refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity and its planned expansion would further support Nigeria’s economic growth and foreign exchange earnings over the medium term.

 

“Meanwhile, the attainment of full capacity and an increase in exports from the Dangote refinery will support real GDP growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and 2027 and beyond, as a planned doubling of the plant’s output comes on stream around the end of the decade,” it added.

 

Industry analysts said the refinery is increasingly positioning Nigeria as an emerging refining and export hub, altering energy trade flows across Africa and reducing the vulnerability associated with fuel import dependence.
The EIU noted that the refinery’s expansion has coincided with major reforms in Nigeria’s downstream sector, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the introduction of market driven pricing mechanisms.

 

The report, however, said the transition from a state dominated fuel import structure to large scale domestic refining has triggered resistance from interests linked to the old import regime.
The latest tensions emerged following the decision by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to relax restrictions on petrol imports despite the refinery’s growing capacity to meet domestic demand.

 

Dangote Industries subsequently initiated legal action, arguing that continued import approvals undermine domestic refining investments and conflict with the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act, which seeks to encourage local refining capacity and reduce import dependence.
Analysts noted that the availability of large-scale domestic refining capacity has improved Nigeria’s energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks and foreign exchange volatility.

The refinery’s growing impact is also being reflected in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic indicators. Earlier this month, S&P Global Ratings cited increased domestic refining capacity and rising hydrocarbon exports among the major factors supporting Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating upgrade – the first in 14 years.
Beyond Nigeria, analysts said the refinery is increasingly being viewed as a strategic industrial asset for Africa, where many countries remain heavily dependent on imported fuel despite rising demand for transportation, manufacturing, and power generation.

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