Economy
Expert chart path for economy in Q2, as Q1 ends on a high
Economic and financial experts at the weekend submitted that the second quarter economic outlook for the country’s economy remains cautiously positive but increasingly uncertain, as it will be shaped by geopolitical developments, political cycle dynamics, and fiscal execution risks.
To this end, they admonish that policy priorities should focus on consolidating macroeconomic stability, addressing structural bottlenecks, and implementing targeted measures to protect vulnerable populations.
They drew their position from the performance of the economy on the first quarter (Q1) which they claim represents a significant inflection point for the Nigerian economy, marked by notable gains in macroeconomic stability.
They however noted that these gains are tempered by persistent structural challenges and mounting welfare pressures. For instance, the ongoing Middle East conflict, they argued, presents a credible risk of stagflation, particularly if the crisis is prolonged or intensifies. Besides, the rising global energy prices, it is believed, are likely to amplify inflationary pressures while simultaneously constraining output growth through higher production and logistics costs. Therefore, for businesses and investors, success in this environment will depend on resilience, operational efficiency, and strategic positioning.
This dual impact, elevated inflation alongside weakened growth, analysts warns, poses a significant macroeconomic risk, with adverse implications for business profitability, investment decisions, and overall economic stability.
The Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, in a policy brief obtained by The Trust News, noted that the economy in the first quarter, reflected a blend of improving macroeconomic stability and persistent structural constraints. He maintained that evidence of a more stable macroeconomic environment is increasingly evident, underpinned by the cumulative gains from foreign exchange reforms, a sustained period of monetary tightening, and the gradual normalisation of key economic indicators.
However, Yusuf said these improvements continue to coexist with significant headwinds. “The cost-of-living crisis remains pronounced, energy costs are still elevated, concerns around insecurity persist, and deep-seated structural rigidities continue to constrain productivity and investment,” the CPPE boss said.
According to him, as the economy transitions into the second quarter, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic but not without considerable risks as the trajectory of macroeconomic stability is vulnerable to external shocks, particularly the evolving geopolitical tensions, while the intensifying political cycle ahead of the 2027 elections could pose risks to policy focus and reform momentum. Additionally, fiscal execution constraints remain a critical concern, with implications for budget implementation, infrastructure delivery, and overall economic performance.
Yusuf, an economist, looking into his crystal ball, maintained that the outlook for Q2 2026 reflects a combination of sustained macroeconomic momentum and rising downside risks.
For instance, he said the current disinflation trajectory remains fragile and susceptible to reversal. He argued that the ongoing Middle East conflict has precipitated a sharp escalation in global crude oil prices, with benchmarks crossing the $100 per barrel threshold in recent weeks-developments with significant inflationary implications.
According to him, the development in the Middle East situation presents a classic dual-edged dynamic for the country. Yusuf explained that on the upside, elevated crude oil prices are expected to bolster export earnings, strengthen foreign exchange inflows, and improve government revenue. However, he warned of the downside risks which are immediate and far-reaching.
“Higher crude prices transmit quickly into domestic fuel costs, with consequential increases in logistics, production, and operating expenses across the economy. This cost pass-through effect poses a significant threat to the fragile disinflation process, potentially reversing recent gains in price stability, weakening real incomes, and further exacerbating the cost-of-living pressures facing households and businesses,” he said.
Although the economist pointed at the exchange rate which he said is expected to remain relatively stable in Q2, as it would be supported by improved reserves and forex liquidity, he nonetheless warns of persistent risks of volatility, particularly in the event of prolonged geopolitical tensions or shifts in investor sentiment.
“Economic growth is expected to remain positive in the near term, but the momentum is likely to moderate amid a confluence of downside risks. Elevated energy costs continue to exert significant pressure on production and operating expenses, while weak consumer demand—driven by eroded purchasing power—remains a binding constraint on output expansion.
“Additionally, the risk of a stagflationary environment is becoming more pronounced, as cost pressures persist alongside fragile growth dynamics. Compounding these challenges are potential policy distractions associated with intensifying pre-election political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections, which could dampen reform momentum and weaken macroeconomic management,” Yusuf said.
Still, the CPPE helmsman maintained that the scope for further monetary easing in the near term appears constrained by renewed inflationary pressures, particularly those linked to rising global energy prices. In this context, he argued, monetary policy is expected to remain cautious and strongly data-driven, with limited headroom for aggressive rate cuts.
“There is, however, a risk that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may be inclined toward further tightening in response to prevailing geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Such a stance would be counterproductive, given the fragility of current growth dynamics.
“Notably, the present inflationary episode is largely cost-push in nature—driven by energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and structural inefficiencies—rather than excess aggregate demand. Consequently, additional monetary tightening would have limited effectiveness in addressing the underlying drivers of inflation, while potentially exacerbating constraints on investment, credit expansion, and overall economic growth,” Yusuf warned.
He warned of a key emerging risk which centers around the increasing tempo of political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections. With political realignments, defections, and early campaign positioning already intensifying, he argued, it raises concerns about policy distraction, as economic management may increasingly compete with electoral considerations. This, he opines, may lead to a growing risk of deceleration in reform momentum, as politically sensitive but necessary reforms become more difficult to sustain in a pre-election environment.
Yet, the CPPE, and economic and think-tank group, noted that the 2026 budget, estimated at about ₦68 trillion, presents both opportunities and risks.
It noted that while the scale of the budget has the potential to stimulate economic activity, its effectiveness will depend largely on implementation quality. The CPPE expressed key concerns to include weak revenue performance; delays in capital releases; limited project execution capacity and increasing political influence on expenditure priorities
“As political pressures intensify, there is a risk of weakening fiscal discipline, with greater emphasis on recurrent and politically expedient spending,” the CPPE warned.
For businesses and investors, therefore, the current environment calls for a strategic shift from expansion-driven models to resilience, efficiency, and risk management.
Yusuf urged businesses to embrace cost containment as a top priority, particularly through energy efficiency and logistics optimisation.
“There is also a compelling case for investment in alternative energy solutions, including solar and gas-powered systems, to reduce dependence on costly diesel and petrol. Foreign exchange risk management is critical. Firms should deepen local sourcing strategies, promote backward integration, and carefully manage currency exposure.
“Liquidity management remains essential. Businesses should maintain strong cash buffers and avoid excessive leverage in a still high-interest-rate environment,” he said.
Yusuf advised investors to adopt a selective approach, focusing on sectors with strong and inelastic demand; pricing power; export potential or forex earnings capacity; policy support and structural growth prospects and close monitoring of the political environment given the likelihood of policy shifts as the election cycle intensifies,” he said.
According to the CPPE, the most notable development in Q1 2026 was the consolidation of macroeconomic stability. He noted that inflation continued on a downward trajectory, as headline inflation, which exceeded 24 per cent in early 2025, moderated to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 and further eased to approximately 15.06 per cent by February 2026. This, he said, is a reflection of the combined effects of tighter monetary conditions, improved exchange rate stability and some easing in supply-side pressures.
“Exchange rate conditions also improved significantly. The naira, which experienced substantial volatility during the reform transition period, stabilised within a relatively narrow band of about ₦1,340 – ₦1,430 per dollar in the official market during Q1 2026. This stability has helped to moderate imported inflation and restore a measure of business confidence.
“External reserves strengthened considerably, rising above $50 billion in early 2026. This improvement reflects stronger oil earnings, enhanced foreign exchange liquidity, and improved market confidence, thereby strengthening the capacity of monetary authorities to manage exchange rate volatility.
“Growth momentum remained positive. Real GDP growth stood at 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with full-year growth at 3.87 per cent, supported by recovery in the oil sector and sustained expansion in the non-oil economy. Business activity indicators also remained positive, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings consistently above the 50-point expansion threshold.
“Monetary policy has begun to reflect these improvements. In February 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent, signaling the start of a cautious easing cycle.
“Overall, these developments point to a transition towards relative macroeconomic stability—an essential foundation for restoring investor confidence and improving economic growth outlook,” he explained.
Economy
‘Good governance critical to Nigeria’s $1tr economy ambition’
By Olamide Akintunde
Experts in corporate governance, finance and public policy have said Nigeria must institutionalise good governance, sustain economic reforms and strengthen collaboration between the public and private sectors to accelerate economic growth and realise its ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
The call came at the 2026 National Corporate Governance Summit themed “Implementing Good Governance for Economic Acceleration: Consolidating Public and Private Sector Partnership,” organised by the Institute of Directors (IoD) Centre for Corporate Governance, the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria (FRC), the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) and the Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators of Nigeria (ICSAN).
Speaking on the theme, the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Dr. Tope Fasua, who represented the Vice President, Kashim Shettima, said President Bola Tinubu’s administration remained committed to implementing reforms capable of building a resilient and competitive economy.
He said the government’s economic reforms including foreign exchange reforms, tax reforms and subsidy removal must be complemented by strong corporate governance in both public institutions and private enterprises.
“The public sector can create the enabling environment through reforms, but it is the private sector that translates those policies into investments, jobs and wealth creation. Both sectors must operate with integrity, accountability and transparency,” he said.
Fasua emphasised that governance should not be treated as a mere compliance exercise but as the foundation upon which investor confidence and sustainable economic development are built.
Speaking on the sidelines of the summit, he explained that the Federal Government’s reforms were designed to create long term economic transformation rather than deliver short term political gains, while calling for greater support for domestic investment and industrialisation.
Delivering the keynote address, the Chairman of Nigerian Breweries Plc, Mrs. Juliet Anammah, described the summit’s theme as timely, saying good governance must move beyond compliance and accountability to become a strategic tool for driving Nigeria’s economic rebirth. She maintained that stronger partnerships between government and the private sector would be critical to achieving sustainable economic acceleration and improving the quality of life of Nigerians.
According to her, the country’s immediate objective should be to move from a lower-middle-income economy to an upper-middle-income economy through sustained industrialisation, innovation and long-term policy implementation.
She acknowledged that the Federal Government had undertaken bold reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange unification and bank recapitalisation, saying the difficult decisions had helped stabilise the economy.
While noting that macroeconomic stability was encouraging, Anammah said it was not the final destination.
“Stabilisation is not the end goal. The destination is economic rebirth that improves household incomes, creates quality careers, expands access to healthcare and education and delivers reliable infrastructure,” she said.
Drawing lessons from countries such as Vietnam and Morocco, she argued that Nigeria must embrace industrialisation by producing more sophisticated and value-added products instead of relying on primary commodities.
She noted that sectors such as petrochemicals, agro-processing, automotive, renewable energy and manufacturing already possess enormous growth potential but require consistent industrial policies supported by sound governance to unlock higher levels of economic complexity.
According to her, policy inconsistency remains one of Nigeria’s greatest development challenges, urging governments at all levels to sustain industrial policies beyond political administrations.
She also advocated stronger competition among states, independent evaluation of industrial policies and closer collaboration between government and the private sector to deepen investment and accelerate economic growth.
She concluded that achieving meaningful economic acceleration would require strong corporate governance, sustained industrial policies and close collaboration between government and the private sector, noting that only through such coordinated efforts can Nigeria transition from an economy driven by informal livelihoods to one characterised by productive industries, quality careers and rising prosperity for its citizens.
Earlier, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the IoD Centre for Corporate Governance, Dr. Uche Eke, said the summit deliberately shifted the conversation from governance principles to implementation, stressing that sustainable economic growth would only be achieved when sound governance becomes embedded across both public institutions and private enterprises.
He explained that Nigeria had spent years identifying governance challenges and developing frameworks, stressing that the time had come for practical execution.
“We have stayed too long articulating the issues. The focus now is implementation. We must embed sound corporate governance practices in both public institutions and private organisations to guarantee sustainability beyond current leadership,” he said.
Eke noted that the summit sought to build national consensus among regulators, government institutions and the private sector on practical governance reforms capable of improving transparency, accountability and economic competitiveness.
He stressed that merit, competence and diversity should determine appointments into leadership positions rather than nepotism or political considerations.
“If Nigeria is serious about building a one trillion dollar economy, we must consistently place the right people in leadership positions, promote diversity of skills and hold leaders accountable for results,” he said.
Also speaking, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of MOFI, Dr. Armstrong Takang, said government alone cannot build the economy Nigeria desires, stressing that strong corporate governance is the foundation for effective public-private partnerships, investor confidence and long-term economic development.
He argued that contrary to the belief that government should not participate in business, successful economies such as China had demonstrated that well-governed state-owned enterprises could become major drivers of investment, industrialisation and economic growth.
Takang said MOFI’s recent experience showed that institutions with strong corporate governance frameworks consistently attracted greater investment and delivered better value creation.
According to him, governance reforms introduced across MOFI’s portfolio companies had significantly improved investor confidence and strengthened the performance of government-owned assets.
He cited initiatives including the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund and the proposed Metro Rail Infrastructure Programme as examples of projects attracting institutional investment because of strong governance structures.
“Government alone cannot build the economy we desire. We need partnerships with the private sector and institutional investors, and corporate governance remains the common denominator that inspires confidence and mobilises capital,” he said.
Stakeholders and participants at the summit agreed that sustaining reforms, strengthening institutions and entrenching transparency across both public and private organisations would be critical to accelerating economic growth, boosting investor confidence and positioning Nigeria to achieve its long-term development ambitions.
Economy
‘Economy on brighter stead in H2’, says Dr. Yusuf
- CPPE hails H1 economic fundamentals
An economist and policy analyst, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria is entering the second half of 2026 with its strongest macroeconomic fundamentals in several years than what obtained at the beginning of the year.
Instrumental to this feat are exchange-rate stability, moderating inflation relative to the exceptionally elevated levels of 2025, stronger external reserves, improved oil production and resilient financial markets, which have all contributed to reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and strengthening investor confidence.
Given the renewed confidence in the economy, Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that while the body remains remains cautiously optimistic of an improved economy, yet, the economic output performance is expected to remain positive, supported by financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade, oil refining and other service-sector activities. It noted that although growth is likely to remain below Nigeria’s long-term potential, the economy appears firmly on a gradual recovery path.
“Inflation is expected to remain substantially below 2025 levels, although food supply disruptions, energy costs and developments in global commodity markets remain important upside risks. Exchange-rate stability should be sustained by stronger foreign exchange inflows, healthier reserves and improved market confidence,” Yusuf said.
Still, the economist’s optimism of an upscale in the economy is further buoyed by the financial markets which are expected to remain broadly resilient, supported by banking-sector recapitalisation, stronger corporate earnings, improved regulatory oversight and sustained institutional participation.
Importantly, Yusuf said improved domestic refining capacity and stronger crude oil production will also significantly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings and energy security.
He however cautioned that the second half of the year also presents an important downside risk to the gains recorded in the economy so far owing to the increasing intensity of political and electioneering activities ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Election-related spending could inject additional liquidity into the economy, with possible implications for inflationary pressures, foreign exchange demand and macroeconomic management. There is also a risk that growing political activity could distract policymakers from economic governance, reform implementation and the execution of critical fiscal and structural policy initiatives,” Yusuf cautioned.
The prospects now offered in the second half of the year, the CPPE boss said, are built on the gains recorded during the first half which was characterised the first half of the year. These, he explained, were reflected in the continued progress in macroeconomic stabilisation as economic growth remained positive, the foreign exchange market became more orderly, external reserves improved, crude oil production strengthened modestly and government revenues benefited from improved oil receipts and stronger non-oil tax collections, including the financial markets which also remained resilient, supported by improving investor confidence and policy credibility.
But notwithstanding these encouraging developments, the real economy, he argued, remained under considerable pressure with high interest rates continuing to constrain private-sector investment and access to credit, while elevated energy costs, inadequate electricity supply, logistics inefficiencies and weak transport infrastructure sustained a high-cost operating environment. Manufacturing, agriculture and MSMEs, he said, faced persistent competitiveness challenges despite improvements in macroeconomic stability.
“Insecurity continued to undermine agricultural production, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment across several sectors. Meanwhile, capital expenditure implementation remained below expectations because of procurement delays, funding constraints and debt-service pressures, limiting the growth impact of fiscal policy.
“Overall, H1 2026 was characterised by stronger macroeconomic stability but only modest improvements in real-sector performance and household welfare, underscoring the need for deeper structural reforms,” he said.
While Yusuf explained that the improvement in macroeconomic indicators provides an important foundation for sustainable growth, he nonetheless cautioned that these indicators are not all sufficient.
“The next phase of reform should focus on lowering production costs, improving productivity and strengthening the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. Priority should be given to improving electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency, and port operations; strengthening security in farming communities and along transport corridors; expanding access to affordable long-term finance for productive sectors; accelerating budget implementation, strengthening budget process credibility, and improving infrastructure delivery; and deepening domestic value addition.
“Government revenue should increasingly be driven by efficiency-enhancing reforms rather than additional tax burdens, while policy consistency should be preserved despite increasing political activity ahead of the 2027 elections. It is equally important to minimise governance distractions and ensure that electioneering does not weaken the pace of reforms, budget implementation or the quality of economic management,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.
Economy
‘Support Dangote Industrial City, Deep seaport project,’ Fed govt urges communities
The Federal Government has called on host communities in Ogun and Ondo states to give maximum support to the proposed Dangote Industrial City and Deep Seaport project, describing it as a transformative initiative that will create opportunities for economic growth and community development.
Representing the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, at the combined Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) site visit, the Director of Assessment, Federal Ministry of Environment, Mrs. Rofikat Odetoro commended Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) for its commitment to environmental sustainability and inclusive stakeholder engagement.
Speaking during the three-day assessment tour across Ode-Omi Waterside Community in Ogun State and Araromi Community in Ondo State, Odetoro expressed satisfaction with the level of community consultations and groundwork undertaken to ensure the project aligns with environmental regulations and the interests of host communities.
Odetoro stressed the need for inclusive dialogue, urging traditional rulers and community leaders not to overlook women and children during consultations. “I urge you to factor women into every engagement. Women and children are as important as every other member of the community and they have unique needs that must not be ignored. Please give this project every support possible. It presents enormous opportunities for youths, women, and children to benefit from employment and the mandatory corporate social responsibility initiatives that will accompany it,” she said.
Speaking during the community engagement at Araromi Seaside Kingdom, Managing Director, Infrastructure and Logistics, Dangote Industries Limited, Capt. Jamil Abubakar, assured the indigenes of transparency, fairness, and continuous engagement throughout the project’s implementation.
According to him, the President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, is committed to ensuring Africa becomes more self-sufficient through strategic infrastructure investments.
“Our President is committed to positioning Africa for greater self-sufficiency and Araromi has been chosen as the location where one of the world’s biggest deep seaports will be built. We are excited about the prospects of this project. We are here to listen to the community’s concerns and work together to achieve a win-win outcome for every stakeholder involved,” he said.
Abubakar further disclosed that Aliko Dangote had directed the project team to carry out a comprehensive needs assessment of the host communities and provide critical interventions regardless of the project’s stage of development.
Presenting the ESIA, Group Lead, Environment and Sustainability, DIL, Dr. Adeyemi Adun, said the study was designed to establish the current environmental and socio-economic baseline of the host communities before project execution. He explained that the assessment would evaluate the quality of air, water and soil, as well as the socio-economic conditions of residents, in line with Federal Ministry of Environment guidelines.
“This phase of the project is intended to establish the current status of the community in terms of air quality, water resources, soil conditions, and socio-economic indicators, as required by the Federal Ministry of Environment. We also assure you that this project will have a positive impact on your communities, just as Dangote Industries has done in other host communities across the country,” Adun added.
Also speaking during the tour, the representative of the Ondo State Commissioner for Environment and Director of the Environmental Assessment Department, Isaac Ojo, welcomed the commencement of the assessment process, describing it as inclusive and beneficial to all stakeholders. “We are delighted that this process has begun and that it accommodates every stakeholder. We are confident the project will benefit the communities, and we encourage everyone to give the Dangote team the maximum support required for its success”, Ojo said.
The Alara of Araromi Seaside Kingdom, Oba Adeoloye Olawole, also expressed strong support for the project, describing Aliko Dangote as “a genius” whose investments would accelerate the development of the kingdom. “We are counting on Aliko Dangote to help develop our kingdom. He is a genius, and we are ready to provide every support necessary to ensure the success of this project. We have always maintained that our community is peaceful, cooperative, and committed to progress. We want him to help develop our land as he doing all over Africa,” the monarch added.
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