Economy
Expert chart path for economy in Q2, as Q1 ends on a high
Economic and financial experts at the weekend submitted that the second quarter economic outlook for the country’s economy remains cautiously positive but increasingly uncertain, as it will be shaped by geopolitical developments, political cycle dynamics, and fiscal execution risks.
To this end, they admonish that policy priorities should focus on consolidating macroeconomic stability, addressing structural bottlenecks, and implementing targeted measures to protect vulnerable populations.
They drew their position from the performance of the economy on the first quarter (Q1) which they claim represents a significant inflection point for the Nigerian economy, marked by notable gains in macroeconomic stability.
They however noted that these gains are tempered by persistent structural challenges and mounting welfare pressures. For instance, the ongoing Middle East conflict, they argued, presents a credible risk of stagflation, particularly if the crisis is prolonged or intensifies. Besides, the rising global energy prices, it is believed, are likely to amplify inflationary pressures while simultaneously constraining output growth through higher production and logistics costs. Therefore, for businesses and investors, success in this environment will depend on resilience, operational efficiency, and strategic positioning.
This dual impact, elevated inflation alongside weakened growth, analysts warns, poses a significant macroeconomic risk, with adverse implications for business profitability, investment decisions, and overall economic stability.
The Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, in a policy brief obtained by The Trust News, noted that the economy in the first quarter, reflected a blend of improving macroeconomic stability and persistent structural constraints. He maintained that evidence of a more stable macroeconomic environment is increasingly evident, underpinned by the cumulative gains from foreign exchange reforms, a sustained period of monetary tightening, and the gradual normalisation of key economic indicators.
However, Yusuf said these improvements continue to coexist with significant headwinds. “The cost-of-living crisis remains pronounced, energy costs are still elevated, concerns around insecurity persist, and deep-seated structural rigidities continue to constrain productivity and investment,” the CPPE boss said.
According to him, as the economy transitions into the second quarter, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic but not without considerable risks as the trajectory of macroeconomic stability is vulnerable to external shocks, particularly the evolving geopolitical tensions, while the intensifying political cycle ahead of the 2027 elections could pose risks to policy focus and reform momentum. Additionally, fiscal execution constraints remain a critical concern, with implications for budget implementation, infrastructure delivery, and overall economic performance.
Yusuf, an economist, looking into his crystal ball, maintained that the outlook for Q2 2026 reflects a combination of sustained macroeconomic momentum and rising downside risks.
For instance, he said the current disinflation trajectory remains fragile and susceptible to reversal. He argued that the ongoing Middle East conflict has precipitated a sharp escalation in global crude oil prices, with benchmarks crossing the $100 per barrel threshold in recent weeks-developments with significant inflationary implications.
According to him, the development in the Middle East situation presents a classic dual-edged dynamic for the country. Yusuf explained that on the upside, elevated crude oil prices are expected to bolster export earnings, strengthen foreign exchange inflows, and improve government revenue. However, he warned of the downside risks which are immediate and far-reaching.
“Higher crude prices transmit quickly into domestic fuel costs, with consequential increases in logistics, production, and operating expenses across the economy. This cost pass-through effect poses a significant threat to the fragile disinflation process, potentially reversing recent gains in price stability, weakening real incomes, and further exacerbating the cost-of-living pressures facing households and businesses,” he said.
Although the economist pointed at the exchange rate which he said is expected to remain relatively stable in Q2, as it would be supported by improved reserves and forex liquidity, he nonetheless warns of persistent risks of volatility, particularly in the event of prolonged geopolitical tensions or shifts in investor sentiment.
“Economic growth is expected to remain positive in the near term, but the momentum is likely to moderate amid a confluence of downside risks. Elevated energy costs continue to exert significant pressure on production and operating expenses, while weak consumer demand—driven by eroded purchasing power—remains a binding constraint on output expansion.
“Additionally, the risk of a stagflationary environment is becoming more pronounced, as cost pressures persist alongside fragile growth dynamics. Compounding these challenges are potential policy distractions associated with intensifying pre-election political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections, which could dampen reform momentum and weaken macroeconomic management,” Yusuf said.
Still, the CPPE helmsman maintained that the scope for further monetary easing in the near term appears constrained by renewed inflationary pressures, particularly those linked to rising global energy prices. In this context, he argued, monetary policy is expected to remain cautious and strongly data-driven, with limited headroom for aggressive rate cuts.
“There is, however, a risk that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may be inclined toward further tightening in response to prevailing geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Such a stance would be counterproductive, given the fragility of current growth dynamics.
“Notably, the present inflationary episode is largely cost-push in nature—driven by energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and structural inefficiencies—rather than excess aggregate demand. Consequently, additional monetary tightening would have limited effectiveness in addressing the underlying drivers of inflation, while potentially exacerbating constraints on investment, credit expansion, and overall economic growth,” Yusuf warned.
He warned of a key emerging risk which centers around the increasing tempo of political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections. With political realignments, defections, and early campaign positioning already intensifying, he argued, it raises concerns about policy distraction, as economic management may increasingly compete with electoral considerations. This, he opines, may lead to a growing risk of deceleration in reform momentum, as politically sensitive but necessary reforms become more difficult to sustain in a pre-election environment.
Yet, the CPPE, and economic and think-tank group, noted that the 2026 budget, estimated at about ₦68 trillion, presents both opportunities and risks.
It noted that while the scale of the budget has the potential to stimulate economic activity, its effectiveness will depend largely on implementation quality. The CPPE expressed key concerns to include weak revenue performance; delays in capital releases; limited project execution capacity and increasing political influence on expenditure priorities
“As political pressures intensify, there is a risk of weakening fiscal discipline, with greater emphasis on recurrent and politically expedient spending,” the CPPE warned.
For businesses and investors, therefore, the current environment calls for a strategic shift from expansion-driven models to resilience, efficiency, and risk management.
Yusuf urged businesses to embrace cost containment as a top priority, particularly through energy efficiency and logistics optimisation.
“There is also a compelling case for investment in alternative energy solutions, including solar and gas-powered systems, to reduce dependence on costly diesel and petrol. Foreign exchange risk management is critical. Firms should deepen local sourcing strategies, promote backward integration, and carefully manage currency exposure.
“Liquidity management remains essential. Businesses should maintain strong cash buffers and avoid excessive leverage in a still high-interest-rate environment,” he said.
Yusuf advised investors to adopt a selective approach, focusing on sectors with strong and inelastic demand; pricing power; export potential or forex earnings capacity; policy support and structural growth prospects and close monitoring of the political environment given the likelihood of policy shifts as the election cycle intensifies,” he said.
According to the CPPE, the most notable development in Q1 2026 was the consolidation of macroeconomic stability. He noted that inflation continued on a downward trajectory, as headline inflation, which exceeded 24 per cent in early 2025, moderated to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 and further eased to approximately 15.06 per cent by February 2026. This, he said, is a reflection of the combined effects of tighter monetary conditions, improved exchange rate stability and some easing in supply-side pressures.
“Exchange rate conditions also improved significantly. The naira, which experienced substantial volatility during the reform transition period, stabilised within a relatively narrow band of about ₦1,340 – ₦1,430 per dollar in the official market during Q1 2026. This stability has helped to moderate imported inflation and restore a measure of business confidence.
“External reserves strengthened considerably, rising above $50 billion in early 2026. This improvement reflects stronger oil earnings, enhanced foreign exchange liquidity, and improved market confidence, thereby strengthening the capacity of monetary authorities to manage exchange rate volatility.
“Growth momentum remained positive. Real GDP growth stood at 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with full-year growth at 3.87 per cent, supported by recovery in the oil sector and sustained expansion in the non-oil economy. Business activity indicators also remained positive, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings consistently above the 50-point expansion threshold.
“Monetary policy has begun to reflect these improvements. In February 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent, signaling the start of a cautious easing cycle.
“Overall, these developments point to a transition towards relative macroeconomic stability—an essential foundation for restoring investor confidence and improving economic growth outlook,” he explained.
Economy
Lagos targets global capital with ambitious economic agenda
The Lagos State Government has unveiled plans for the Third Edition of the Invest in Lagos Summit, positioning the gathering as a major platform to attract international investors.
The summit, the State Government said, will deepen economic partnerships and reinforce its status as Africa’s leading commercial hub.
The summit, with the theme: “Lagos Business Gateway to Africa: Where Innovation Meets Capital,” will take hold from June 8 to 9, 2026, with an additional industrial and infrastructure tour planned for June 10, 2026.
Unveiling the summit at a media briefing yesterday in Lagos, the organisers described “Invest in Lagos 3.” as a strategic economic intervention designed to unlock new investment opportunities, accelerate industrialisation and strengthen Lagos’ place in the global economic landscape.
The summit is put together by the State Government in collaboration with the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council as well as several institutional and private sector partners.
Officials said the event would serve as a global meeting point for policymakers, multinational corporations, sovereign wealth funds, development finance institutions, innovators, entrepreneurs and investors seeking opportunities across key sectors of the Lagos economy.
They noted that the summit has evolved beyond a conventional conference into a strategic platform for policy dialogue, capital mobilisation, investment matchmaking and economic collaboration.
According to the organisers, the maiden edition, known as the Lagos Investment Roundtable, helped establish Lagos as a globally competitive economy with a clear reform agenda and investor-focused policies, while the second edition attracted international delegations and investment promotion agencies from Africa, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
Co-chair of the summit’s Technical and Programmes Committee, Dr. Toyosi Akinyemi-Oshige, described the event as potentially “the defining investment convening for Africa in this decade.”
He disclosed that participants expected at the event will include at least 28,000 delegates from more than 50 Commonwealth countries, making it one of the largest investment gatherings on the continent.
Akinyemi-Oshige stated that unlike traditional conferences often limited to speeches and networking, Invest in Lagos 3.0 would prioritise measurable outcomes through technology-driven coordination and real-time engagement systems.
According to him, the summit will leverage digital dashboards, live intelligence systems and virtual engagement tools to improve participation and investment tracking throughout the event.
He added that youth entrepreneurship and innovation would form a central pillar of the summit, stressing that Lagos remains Africa’s leading startup ecosystem and a major hub for technology-driven businesses.
Officials disclosed that Invest in Lagos 2.0 generated curated investment portfolios valued at more than N800 billion across eight priority sectors and was projected to create approximately 80,000 jobs over a three-to-five-year period.
The previous edition also facilitated strategic memoranda of understanding, public-private partnerships and high-level deal room discussions on industrialisation, infrastructure financing, manufacturing, transportation, digital economy, logistics, sustainable urban development and the creative industry.
Speaking on the objectives of this year’s summit, organisers said Invest in Lagos 3.0 would build on those achievements with stronger implementation frameworks, deeper global engagement and more practical investment outcomes.
They described Lagos as the centre of Africa’s economic story, citing its population of over 23 million people, expanding transportation network, rapidly growing innovation ecosystem, industrial capacity and strategic maritime infrastructure as major attractions for investors.
According to them, Lagos remains uniquely positioned as the preferred destination for manufacturing, technology, finance, trade and enterprise development on the continent.
The summit will include executive roundtables, sector-focused investment dialogues, exhibitions, networking engagements and business-to-business meetings aimed at connecting investors directly with government institutions and private sector players.
One of the major highlights expected at the summit is the Governor’s Investment Showcase Panel, where state governors from across Nigeria will present targeted investment opportunities directly to international investors, development agencies and business leaders.
The session is expected to facilitate direct engagement between public officials and global capital providers on strategic projects capable of driving economic growth across the country.
The organisers confirmed that several high-profile international and local figures would participate in the summit, including the Chair of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council, Lord Marland, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Commonwealth Secretary-General Shirley Botchwey, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Jumoke Oduwole and the Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Several leading corporations and investment institutions are also expected to participate, including Dangote Group, Julius Berger Nigeria, Olam Group, Alaro City and the Lekki Free Zone.
Organisers revealed that thematic discussions at the summit would focus on critical sectors considered essential to Lagos’ long-term economic growth. These include infrastructure and urban development, manufacturing and industrialisation, agriculture and food systems, technology and digital economy, blue economy, tourism, energy, logistics, financial services, real estate and SME development.
Special investment sessions will also spotlight emerging opportunities within Lagos’ economic zone agenda, including industrial parks, export-oriented manufacturing hubs, innovation districts and climate-focused infrastructure projects.
As part of efforts to integrate young people into the investment ecosystem, students from major tertiary institutions, including Lagos State University, will participate in managing digital command centres that will provide remote access to plenary sessions, keynote speeches and panel discussions for global audiences.
In another major innovation, organisers announced plans to introduce podcast studios and media engagement sections at the summit to amplify conversations around investment, tourism, culture and entrepreneurship in Lagos.
Beyond the conference sessions, foreign delegates are expected to embark on guided tours of major industrial and infrastructure projects across Lagos on June 10.
The tours will include visits to the Dangote Refinery, the Lekki Deep Sea Port, Lekki Free Trade Zone, the Blue and Red Rail Lines and the RussellSmith 3D Printing and Manufacturing Centre.
Organisers said the tours are intended to give international investors firsthand experience of Lagos’ ongoing transformation and infrastructural development.
Stakeholders at the briefing also emphasised the significance of the partnership between Lagos and the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council, noting that it reflects growing international confidence in Nigeria and Africa as emerging investment frontiers.
They argued that the collaboration sends a strong signal to global investors that Lagos is increasingly becoming a strategic gateway into African markets.
The summit will also feature investment pavilions and sector-specific deal rooms where startups, businesses, state governments and investors can negotiate partnerships, showcase projects and secure financing opportunities.
According to the organisers, the pavilions will provide opportunities for companies, associations and institutions to host side events, display investment opportunities and interact directly with potential investors.
Special participation categories have also been created for startups, media organisations, strategic partners and sponsors.
Officials used the opportunity to call on residents, businesses, investors, diplomatic missions and members of the international community to participate actively in the summit, describing it as a collective effort to showcase Lagos as a modern, inclusive and future-ready smart city.
They expressed optimism that the summit would strengthen investor confidence, attract fresh domestic and foreign direct investments, facilitate strategic partnerships and generate employment opportunities capable of driving long-term prosperity in Lagos and across Nigeria.
“As a government, we remain fully committed to creating an enabling environment for businesses to thrive through reforms, infrastructure development, digital transformation and improved ease of doing business,” the organisers stated.
They added that under the leadership of Governor Sanwo-Olu, Lagos continues to pursue an ambitious economic agenda focused on resilience, innovation, industrial growth and global competitiveness.
Interested participants, investors and media organisations were advised to direct accreditation, enquiries and correspondence to the summit.
With expectations already building ahead of the summit, stakeholders believe Invest in Lagos 3.0 could become one of the most significant economic and investment gatherings ever hosted on the African continent, while further cementing Lagos’ reputation as the business gateway to Africa.
Economy
Monetary tightening will hurt investment in real economy, says Dr. Yusuf
• Food, transportation spike inflation in March
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), yesterday warned against the current inflationary pressures are predominantly cost-push in nature, driven by energy, logistics and structural inefficiencies and not excess demand.
The Group, a policy and economic think-tank body, therefore cautioned against using the recent uptick in inflation as a basis for additional monetary tightening. It noted that further monetary tightening would be ineffective in addressing the root causes of inflation, high interest rates would hurt economic growth, investment and productivity; while the real sector would face increased financing constraints, undermining recovery efforts.
Reacting to the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the CPPE boss, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described as worrisome the latest inflation data, describing it as a signaling a worrying resurgence of inflationary pressures, particularly on a month-on-month basis.
He said that while recent months have reflected a gradual moderation in year-on-year inflation, the release of the March CPI report gives a cause for concern given that headline inflation edged up to 15.38 per cent in March, while month-on-month inflation accelerated sharply to 4.18 per cent, nearly double the level recorded in February.
This development, Yusuf argued, underscores the fragility of the disinflation process and raises concerns about renewed cost pressures in the economy.
“The March 2026 CPI report highlights a critical development in Nigeria’s inflation trajectory, where the earlier gains in disinflation are now being threatened by a resurgence of cost-driven pressures, particularly from energy, food and transportation.
“This emerging trend suggests that while inflation had been moderating on a year-on-year basis, underlying structural vulnerabilities remain largely unresolved, with recent month-on-month increases pointing to renewed price momentum.
“The situation calls for urgent and targeted policy responses, as failure to address these supply-side drivers could reverse the fragile stability achieved and deepen the cost-of-living challenges facing households and businesses.
“While disinflation trends remain evident on a year-on-year basis, the resurgence of monthly inflation pressures signals that macroeconomic stability is still fragile. The policy response must therefore shift from a narrow focus on monetary tools to a broader strategy that addresses the structural drivers of inflation, particularly in energy, food and transportation.
“Without decisive action in these areas, the gains recorded in inflation moderation may prove temporary, while households and businesses continue to grapple with significant cost pressures,” Yusuf said.
Yusuf, who also doubles as the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that the recent uptick in inflation is largely reflective of renewed energy price pressures, which continue to permeate production, transportation and distribution costs across the economy.
Insisting that energy remains a critical cost driver in the country, given the persistent reliance on gas, diesel and petrol for power generation, logistics and industrial operations, Yusuf noted the implications of the development as “far-reaching.” Specifically, he pointed out that rising energy costs are quickly transmitted into higher transportation costs; increased food prices and escalating production and distribution expenses.
“This cost-push dynamic explains the sharp increase in month-on-month inflation and signals that the underlying inflationary pressures are far from subdued,” Dr. Yusuf explained.
Analysing the CPI data, the CPPE boss noted that it clearly shows that food and transportation-related costs remain the most significant contributors to inflation, accounting for a substantial proportion which is estimated at about 70 per cent of inflationary pressures when direct and indirect effects are considered.
From the data, food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year, while core inflation—which captures broader price pressures—rose to 16.21 per cent. On the other hand, transportation costs, which are heavily influenced by fuel prices and logistics inefficiencies, exerted strong upward pressure on prices across sectors as higher transport costs raise the cost of moving food, goods and services nationwide, thereby amplifying inflation.
“These figures are particularly troubling given their direct impact on household welfare. The dominance of food and transport in the inflation basket has profound welfare consequences. These are non-discretionary expenditures, meaning households cannot easily adjust consumption in response to rising prices,” Dr. Yusuf said, adding that the situation is even more concerning given that rural inflation remains elevated, reflecting structural challenges in agricultural productivity and distribution systems.
The implications of these is the erosion of real incomes and purchasing power; rising cost of living pressures on households; increased poverty and vulnerability, particularly in rural areas and heightened inequality across regions and income groups.
The CPPE admonished that given the centrality of food and transportation to inflation and welfare, governments at both federal and subnational levels should prioritise interventions in these sectors.
For instance, in agricultural productivity, there is an urgent need to improve security in farming communities, strengthen rural infrastructure and logistics, enhance access to inputs and financing and promote mechanisation and modern farming techniques.
“Boosting agricultural productivity is the most sustainable pathway to moderating food inflation, not importation. Besides, governments at all levels should invest significantly in mass transit systems, bus and rail, reduce reliance on fragmented private transport systems, introduce regulatory frameworks to curb exploitative pricing and improve urban mobility infrastructure. A more structured and efficient public transport system will significantly reduce inflationary pressures and improve welfare outcomes,” Dr. Yusuf noted.
Economy
World Bank: Nigerian economy to grow in H1
Nigeria’s economy is resilient and set to grow in the first half of 2026 despite the Iran war, the World Bank has said.
It however said that rising fuel costs and persistently high inflation risk squeezing incomes and slowing poverty reduction.
The bank also advised Nigeria to remove controls on fuel imports to ease inflation and support growth.
Business activity remains in expansion territory with the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict so far lifting prices but leaving output largely intact, World Bank Nigeria lead economist FisehaHaile said during a presentation in the capital Abuja.
“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past fewmonths, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still being felt through higher inflation,” Haile said.
President Bola Tinubu, now in his third year in office, has rolled outNigeria’s most ambitious economic overhaul in decades by ending costly fuel and energy subsidies, devaluing the currency and changing the tax system to stabilise an economy battered by high inflation, currency weakness and external shocks.
Inflation eased sharply to 15.06 per cent in February from around 33 per cent in December 2024, but remains high compared with regional peers and has come under renewed pressure since the Middle East conflict began, Haile said.
Fuel prices have risen more than 50 per cent during the Iran war, feeding into transport, food and production costs. Nigeria should consider lifting curbs on fuel imports to help ease inflation, he said.
“Inflation is still elevated and under increasing pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Haile said.
Nigeria’s external buffers have improved as foreign exchange reserves rise and volatility eases, but tighter global financing conditions still threaten inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.
Nigeria’s fiscal deficit widened slightly to 3.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, but remains lower than in pre-reform years, Haile said, adding that the debt‑to‑GDP ratio fell for the first time in a decade, helped by stronger fiscal performance and exchange rate valuation gains.
The World Bank forecasts economic growth of about 4.2 per cent for 2026 and urged authorities to save windfalls from higher oil prices, keep monetary policy tight, and avoid blanket subsidies to rein in inflation.
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