• CPPE hails H1 economic fundamentals

An economist and policy analyst, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria is entering the second half of 2026 with its strongest macroeconomic fundamentals in several years than what obtained at the beginning of the year.

Instrumental to this feat are exchange-rate stability, moderating inflation relative to the exceptionally elevated levels of 2025, stronger external reserves, improved oil production and resilient financial markets, which have all contributed to reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and strengthening investor confidence.

Given the renewed confidence in the economy, Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that while the body remains remains cautiously optimistic of an improved economy, yet, the economic output performance is expected to remain positive, supported by financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade, oil refining and other service-sector activities. It noted that although growth is likely to remain below Nigeria’s long-term potential, the economy appears firmly on a gradual recovery path.

“Inflation is expected to remain substantially below 2025 levels, although food supply disruptions, energy costs and developments in global commodity markets remain important upside risks. Exchange-rate stability should be sustained by stronger foreign exchange inflows, healthier reserves and improved market confidence,” Yusuf said.

Still, the economist’s optimism of an upscale in the economy is further buoyed by the financial markets which are expected to remain broadly resilient, supported by banking-sector recapitalisation, stronger corporate earnings, improved regulatory oversight and sustained institutional participation.

Importantly, Yusuf said improved domestic refining capacity and stronger crude oil production will also significantly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings and energy security.

He however cautioned that the second half of the year also presents an important downside risk to the gains recorded in the economy so far owing to the increasing intensity of political and electioneering activities ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Election-related spending could inject additional liquidity into the economy, with possible implications for inflationary pressures, foreign exchange demand and macroeconomic management. There is also a risk that growing political activity could distract policymakers from economic governance, reform implementation and the execution of critical fiscal and structural policy initiatives,” Yusuf cautioned.

The prospects now offered in the second half of the year, the CPPE boss said, are built on the gains recorded during the first half which was characterised the first half of the year. These, he explained, were reflected in the continued progress in macroeconomic stabilisation as economic growth remained positive, the foreign exchange market became more orderly, external reserves improved, crude oil production strengthened modestly and government revenues benefited from improved oil receipts and stronger non-oil tax collections, including the financial markets which also remained resilient, supported by improving investor confidence and policy credibility.

But notwithstanding these encouraging developments, the real economy, he argued, remained under considerable pressure with high interest rates continuing to constrain private-sector investment and access to credit, while elevated energy costs, inadequate electricity supply, logistics inefficiencies and weak transport infrastructure sustained a high-cost operating environment. Manufacturing, agriculture and MSMEs, he said, faced persistent competitiveness challenges despite improvements in macroeconomic stability.

“Insecurity continued to undermine agricultural production, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment across several sectors. Meanwhile, capital expenditure implementation remained below expectations because of procurement delays, funding constraints and debt-service pressures, limiting the growth impact of fiscal policy.

“Overall, H1 2026 was characterised by stronger macroeconomic stability but only modest improvements in real-sector performance and household welfare, underscoring the need for deeper structural reforms,” he said.

While Yusuf explained that the improvement in macroeconomic indicators provides an important foundation for sustainable growth, he nonetheless cautioned that these indicators are not all sufficient.

“The next phase of reform should focus on lowering production costs, improving productivity and strengthening the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. Priority should be given to improving electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency, and port operations; strengthening security in farming communities and along transport corridors; expanding access to affordable long-term finance for productive sectors; accelerating budget implementation, strengthening budget process credibility, and improving infrastructure delivery; and deepening domestic value addition.

“Government revenue should increasingly be driven by efficiency-enhancing reforms rather than additional tax burdens, while policy consistency should be preserved despite increasing political activity ahead of the 2027 elections. It is equally important to minimise governance distractions and ensure that electioneering does not weaken the pace of reforms, budget implementation or the quality of economic management,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.

The World Bank Group has approved a $1.25 billion financing package to support Nigeria’s economic reforms as part of a new seven-year partnership that aims to expand broadband access to 58 million people, improve health and nutrition services for 40 million Nigerians, provide electricity access to 32 million people, and support 9.5 million farmers across the country.

The support is contained in the World Bank Group’s new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for 2026–2032, which was approved alongside the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) Development Policy Financing (DPF) operation.

According to the World Bank, the new partnership is designed to help Nigeria create more and better jobs by encouraging private sector investment and building on the country’s recent economic reforms.

The institution said recent policy changes have led to stronger economic growth, higher government revenues, improved foreign reserves and increased investor confidence. It noted, however, that sustaining these gains would require reforms that make it easier for businesses to invest, expand and employ more Nigerians.

Speaking on the new framework, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the strategy would guide the institution’s support for Nigeria over the next several years.

“Our new Country Partnership Framework provides the strategy for how the World Bank Group will support Nigeria over the coming years, with a strong focus on helping to create more and better jobs, particularly by enabling private sector-led growth,” he said.

Verghis added that while recent macroeconomic reforms had helped stabilise the economy, “translating improved macroeconomic conditions into better living standards will require addressing the structural constraints to spur private sector investment and job creation.”

The World Bank said the $1.25 billion NAIJA financing would support government reforms aimed at strengthening economic growth and improving competitiveness.

According to the institution, the reforms include developing Nigeria’s capital markets, updating regulations for the digital economy and electronic governance, advancing reforms in the power sector to speed up electrification, reducing trade barriers in line with the country’s commitments under the ECOWAS and African Continental Free Trade Area agreements, improving access to quality agricultural seeds and strengthening domestic revenue generation.

It explained that the financing forms part of a broader package of support covering investments in energy, digital infrastructure, agriculture, private sector development and social protection to promote job creation, economic resilience and poverty reduction.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) Divisional Director for Nigeria, Dahlia Khalifa, said Nigeria has significant long-term growth prospects if it succeeds in attracting more investment and improving productivity.

“Nigeria’s long-term growth potential will be shaped by the economy’s ability to attract investment, raise productivity, and unleash private sector job creation building on the capital of a rapidly growing population,” she said.
Khalifa added that under the new partnership, the World Bank Group would work with Nigeria to unlock private investment, expand access to infrastructure and essential services, and create an environment that allows businesses to innovate and compete.

She said the overall objective was to ensure that ongoing economic reforms translate into wider economic opportunities and improved living standards for Nigerians.

Also commenting, MIGA Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ed Mountfield, said although Nigeria’s reform programme was opening new investment opportunities, investors still faced risks that needed to be addressed.

“Nigeria’s reform progress is creating important opportunities for private investment, but risks remain for investors. MIGA’s role is to help manage these risks—through guarantees and political risk insurance—so that investors can step in with confidence,” he said.

Mountfield said the World Bank Group Guarantee Platform, managed by MIGA under the new partnership framework, would increase support for priority sectors including financial services and infrastructure to help attract investment, create jobs and stimulate economic growth.

• We are compliant with price reduction, says IPMAN

• It’s pure business decision, says Dr. Yusuf

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) may wield the big stick on oil marketers across the country following their reluctance to reduce petrol pump price in alignment with the falling global crude oil price.

The Commission, in a statement signed by its Director, Corporate Affairs, Ondaje Ijagwu, expressed concern over the outcome of its findings from surveillance of the downstream petroleum market suggesting undue exploitation of consumers.

The planned action, the Commission said, has become necessary after it observed that ins spite of a downward review of the gantry prices of petrol by domestic refiners, marketers, depot owners, and retail outlet operators only reflected the a negligible price reduction which are not commensurate with the steep fall in crude prices in the global market.

The FCCPC’s position may be right. This is because, following a ceasefire agreement between U.S. and Iran two weeks ago and the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz, crude oil prices have been on a steady decline, falling to $71.99 per barrel (Brent crude) and $69.23 per barrel (WTI) yesterday- a sharp drop from the peak of $120 per barrel in April, returning to the prices in the pre- US-Iran war era in February.

The global spike in crude prices led to local refiners and marketers raising pump prices swiftly across the country, with petrol price climbing to between N1,350 to N1,500 and diesel selling N2,000 as hostilities intensified in the gulf between April and May. In February, petrol averaged between N800 and N900 per litre at the retail pumps. Presently, notwithstanding the global price fall of crude oil, petrol is still sold at average of N1,200 while some local refiners fixed between N1,025 and N1,075 as their gantry prices.

The Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the FCCPC, Tunji Bello, explained that while the Commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market, however, it (the Commission) has a responsibility under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act 2018, to promote competitive markets, prevent anti-competitive conduct and protect consumers from unfair, deceptive and exploitative business practices.

“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions.

“Though recognising that domestic prices are influenced by a range of commercial and market factors (including refining costs, foreign exchange movements, logistics, financing and distribution expenses), the Commission however expects competitive market dynamics to have eased the swift transmission of resulting cost efficiencies to consumers.

“Market liberalisation does not diminish businesses’ obligations to compete fairly or consumers’ right to fair treatment. Where credible evidence indicates conduct that undermines competition, exploits consumers or otherwise contravenes the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, the Commission will investigate and take appropriate enforcement action,” Bello explained.

The National President, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Abubakar Maiganda, however said marketers were already complying with the price reduction. He explained that marketers are responded to the price cut by the same percentage cut in price from the refiners.

“You have to know that this price cut is in batches. So as they are reducing, we too are reducing. When Dangote Refinery reduced by N50 per litre, we reflected the same N50 reduction in our pump price; any amount of money that is reduced from the ex gantry price, that is the same amount money that we are reduce on our pump price,” Maigandi said.

He challenged the FCCPC to take a survey of IPMAN stations and verify the level of compliance of its members. “We must, the compliance is must because if you don’t comply, nobody will come and patronise your product. Nobody will see a cheaper product and go and buy it at a higher cost. Actually, all our marketers are complying. I have always insisted that we like the reduction because that reduction itself makes for more volume of petrol to be sold,” Maigandi explained.

Still, some top operators in the oil marketing segment accuse the FCCPC of double standard in the prevailing situation. Top officials of other marketing associations, when asked to comment on the Commission’s position and threats of sanction against erring marketers, said it smacks of double standard on the commission’s part to say it would sanction marketers.

The top officials, who pleaded to remain anonymous after being pressured to speak to the matter, said: “We await their sanctions. Where was the FCCPC when we were crying out that we were being demarketed by local refiners? The FCCPC didn’t see what the refiner was doing at that time as anti-competitive conduct for it to intervene but now it wants to intervene. Is that not double standards?” the official retorted.

The Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, agreed that the FCCPC may intervene irrespective of the sector being deregulated.

“Well, if there are obvious cases of corruption, for instance, or if people who have so strong market power are trying to be exploitative, the FCCPC can intervene because the competition commission has broad powers to address issues of price commotion, issues of abuse of monopoly powers, issues of abuse of market powers. That is their mandate.

“But they must establish that such situation exists before they can begin to intervene. You have many players in the downstream. So there is a framework that will allow competition to happen,” Yusuf argued.

But much as the FCCPC has the statutory power to prevent anti competition and protect consumers, Yusuf argued that it will be a difficult task to compel marketers on pricing because it is purely a business decision.

“If you have a stock and the price of that stock went up, even though you bought it at a lower price, you are going to price it at a replacement cost. That is normal business sense. If you finish selling it, at what price are you going to replace it? That is why you determine at what price you will sell it. So it is pure business sense. So it is a difficult thing to compel businesses on certain issues,” Dr. Yusuf said.

According to the CPPE boss, generally, prices are sticky downwards. This implies that when it’s time for price reduction, it comes very slowly and reluctantly.

“That is the general behaviour of many businesses. It will take some significant competitive pressure to bring down the price. But the flip side is that if it’s a case of increasing price, it will be instant. Yes, it will increase instantaneously. However, that is a typical business behaviour, because if they want to replenish, they are going to replace at a higher cost. So they are looking at replacement costs to determine the price.

“The business argument of many of these marketers is that they have an old stock, which they bought at a high price. Therefore, until they exhaust the old stock, they will not be able to reduce the price significantly. That it is when they now buy a new stock at a lower price, then they will sell at lower price,” he said.

Bello encouraged consumers to continue reporting suspected anti-competitive conduct, misleading pricing practices and other forms of unfair market behaviour through the Commission’s established complaint channels.