Energy
NMDPRA urges decentralisation in downstream market
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has called on investors to explore the northern region of the country for investments in energy growth. It said the region presents huge opportunities essential for Nigeria’s energy growth and economic balance, considering its vast population and growing demand for energy. It therefore urged investors in the oil and gas industry to diversify operations and expand beyond the South-South and South-West regions of the country.
The Executive Director, Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning (ERSP) at NMDPRA, Prof. Zainab Gobir, made the appeal during the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2025 which ended at the weekend in Lagos.
According to her, investors must rethink their business models and explore opportunities across all geopolitical zones to ensure equitable participation and sustainable energy access nationwide.
“The numbers exist across all regions; not just in the South. Population and available volumes in other regions matter and companies must model their operations around this reality to optimise margins and logistics,” he said.
Gobir disclosed that the Authority was leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics to enhance transparency, efficiency and investor engagement across Nigeria’s midstream and downstream oil and gas sectors.
“We are deploying AI for data collection and integrating it into our operations. We are taking feedback from Nigerians to identify bottlenecks and improve regulatory performance. Soon, consumers will be able to see pricing data in real time and choose the retail outlets they prefer,” she said.
According to her, the NMDPRA has automated key regulatory processes to improve operational efficiency, compliance monitoring and customer experience. She revealed that most of the Authority’s processes have been digitised and also activated customer platforms that follow all necessary licensing and qualification procedures.
“Through predictive and regression analysis, we can now understand the peculiarities of each oil and gas segment and respond proactively,” she revealed.
According to Gobir, the NMDPRA is developing a comprehensive data bank to give operators access to real-time market information and business intelligence.
“Our goal is to make data accessible. We are working on a platform where operators can track market trends and make informed business decisions.
“We have also automated our investment portal where prospective investors can register and join monthly roundtables to explore new opportunities in the sector.”
Gobir revealed that the Authority’s consumer experience platform has also been automated to allow the public to directly report market issues and engage with regulators.
Speaking on the impact of technology on regulation, Gobir described automation as inevitable, warning that operators who failed to adopt AI-driven systems risk being left behind.
“Automation is now a necessity. AI is not here to replace people but to enhance monitoring and improve accountability. It is a tool to help scale the market and drive sustainable growth,” she explained.
She said that Nigeria’s downstream market was both data-driven and population-driven, noting that taxation, logistics and market reach depend heavily on accurate demographic and operational data.
“Taxation is not only about the amount paid but also about the volume and reach of operations. Understanding population dynamics helps determine how far products like petrol and gas can go efficiently,” she added.
Gobir noted that the NMDPRA was evolving from a traditional regulator into a business enabler, and supporting small and medium-sized operators to scale up through technology and data access.
“We are helping MSMEs connect with customers. For instance, in the LPG sector, when operators provide their data, it allows consumers to locate the nearest LPG depot through our portal, (thus) increasing visibility, compliance, and business growth,” she said.
The Executive Director announced that NMDPRA was opening its systems to third-party data integration to foster inclusivity and improve market intelligence.
“We are now accepting third-party data to strengthen our automated system and ensure better market monitoring and inclusiveness,” Gobir said.
She reiterated the commitment of NMDPRA to promoting transparency, innovation, and regional equity in the downstream oil and gas industry as part of Nigeria’s broader push towards sustainable energy development.
Energy
8,500 transmission capacity: Low demand stalls generation of 3,500MW
• Nigeria conducts grid synchronisation test connecting 15 countries for four hours
The Ministry of Power yesterday said despite the availability of 8,500MW transmission capacity in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), low demand from the Distribution Companies (DisCos) has limited generation to 5,000MW, stalling 3,500MW.
As of July 17, 2025, the wheeling capacity was 5,500MW.
But the ministry disclosed its recent wheeling capacity in Abuja during a media briefing where it announced that Nigeria successfully conducted a grid synchronization test with 15 West African countries for four hours on November 8, 2025.
“Today, the minimum grid capacity we can even communicate is 8,500MW of capacity. If our generation reaches 8,000 MW today, the grid can comfortably and conveniently transmit it,” Adelabu said.
Besides, the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), Market Operation Executive Director, Dr. Edmund Eje, explained that since electricity cannot be stored, the industry only generates energy based on demand.
His words: “The amount of energy generated is equal to the amount of energy that will be transmitted, and it is also equal to the amount of energy that is demanded by the distribution companies. It is simultaneously consumed.
“You don’t stall energy anywhere. The transmission capacity can carry 8,500MW, but it can only carry what can be consumed. Generators will not generate more than what will be consumed at the same time.”
On synchronization, he said the feat of successful synchronization will not affect the allocation of energy for domestic consumption.
Eje said that although there is a regulation that Nigeria allocates 600MW for bilateral trade, production constraints presently limit it to 360MW.
Adelabu, however, described the synchronization test success as a step towards the elimination of grid collapse from the industry, noting it means that there is confidence that the system is now resilient.
He described it as a landmark development in the evolution of West Africa’s electricity architecture.
He confirmed that on 8th November 2025, Nigeria successfully conducted a grid synchronisation test connecting the national electricity grid with the interconnected West African Power Pool (WAPP) system.
According to him, the exercise represents the first time in history that Nigeria has operated in a unified, stable, and fully harmonised configuration with the rest of the sub-region.
He clarified that while it is not yet a permanent synchronisation, the successful test clearly demonstrates that regional technical alignment is feasible and marks a major step toward eventual full integration.
Adelabu further noted that the synchronisation exercise, conducted between 05:04 a.m. and 09:04 a.m., involved the Nigerian grid which includes Niger Republic and parts of Benin and Togo and the rest of West Africa’s interconnected systems covering Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Mali.
He said for four uninterrupted hours, power flowed seamlessly across national borders, operating at a single stable frequency and proving that West Africa is now technically capable of functioning as a unified power bloc.
He said the achievement ranks among the most significant milestones in the history of WAPP.
He said the test marks the first successful large-scale synchronisation attempt since 2007, when a short-lived trial lasted only seven minutes before failing.
Adelabu said Nigeria has made history with the successful synchronization of the national grid with the West African Power Pool interconnected system.
For four unbroken hours, according to him, electricity flowed from Nigeria and Niger into the entire West African sub-region covering Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Senegal, Mali, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau operating at a single, stabilized frequency.
Earlier at the NISO Maiden Stakeholders’ Engagement, the Managing Director, Engr. Abdul Mohammed said the milestone recorded with the synchronization milestone is more than a technical success, since it positions Nigeria as a regional power hub; opens new avenues for electricity trading; unlocks foreign exchange potential; and reinforces investor confidence in the emerging Nigerian electricity market.
According to him, a resilient electricity market requires more than engineering; it requires relationships.
He said it requires trust among service providers, trust between the market and regulators, trust between the government and operators, and, above all, trust from the Nigerian people.
Energy
Brent rises 1.32% to $65 as drone strike halts 260,000bpd Russian refinery
By Grace Edet
Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out one of Russia’s largest refineries, disrupting 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) of processing capacity and raising fresh concerns over global supply stability as winter demand builds.
Brent crude was up 1.32 per cent at $65.05 per barrel at 9:00 WAT, with analysts warning that the outage could trigger further price increases in the coming days.
The Ryazan refinery, Russia’s fourth-largest and operated by Rosneft, has now been hit twice in less than a month as Ukraine escalates its long-range strike campaign. The latest attack halted the plant’s main crude distillation unit, which accounts for roughly 5 per y of Russia’s total refining capacity.
Industry sources told reporters that the refinery will remain shut until at least December 1, adding that “no product deliveries are expected before then,” while several secondary units have also been idled.
Prices Mixed Across the Energy Market
While Brent gained, WTI held steady at $60.90 per barrel, showing no change. Murban crude ticked up by 1.06 per cent to $66.46, whereas natural gas slipped 0.16 per cent to $4.368. Analysts say the muted price response masks rising anxiety beneath the surface.
“Market sentiment has turned cautious. If these outages persist or Moscow’s infrastructure comes under renewed fire, the supply picture could tighten very quickly,” an energy expert, Mustapha Shuaid said.
Winter Demand Meets Heightened Geopolitical Risk
The attack comes at a sensitive period, with temperatures dropping across Europe and Asia. Energy markets typically enter a high-demand phase from late November, making geopolitical disruptions more consequential.
Ukraine’s strategy has increasingly shifted toward high-impact targets. According to the Centre for European Policy Analysis, Kyiv is now focusing on “high-value refinery equipment like cracking units — assets that are harder to replace and more disruptive when damaged.”
Recent strikes have also hit terminals and export routes, including the strategic Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea.
Market Braces for Upside Risk
Although front-month prices remain relatively stable, traders say the underlying risk of a significant price upturn is rising. The outage at Ryazan, combined with the threat of additional strikes, could squeeze Russian product exports and rattle global supply chains.
“The next few weeks will be pivotal. Any escalation could be enough to disrupt balances and trigger a price rally, with spillover inflation risks for energy-dependent economies,” another analyst, Akin Owolabi told TheTrustNews.com.
With the Ryazan plant offline and Russia’s refining network increasingly exposed, the oil market enters the winter season on a fragile footing.
Energy
Diesel falls to ₦979/L in Lagos
By Grace Edet
Diesel prices in Lagos have dropped below ₦1,000 per litre for the first time in months, offering rare relief to transport operators, manufacturers and SMEs.
Market checks on Tuesday showed rates as low as ₦979 per litre at Mobil Idowu Egba, ₦980 at NNPC Retail Igando and ₦995 at Petrocam Isheri, driven by stronger domestic supply and heightened competition among retailers.
But fresh cost indicators suggest the drop may be short-lived. New data from the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows diesel landing cost has climbed to ₦980.28 per litre, signalling pressure on retailers and raising the likelihood of a price rebound.
According to market analysts, the rising landing cost is being driven by firmer international prices, higher cargo premiums and renewed bulk purchases by major distributors seeking to replenish stock.
They warn that the current sub-₦1,000 pump prices do not reflect the cost realities facing importers.
Foreign exchange volatility is compounding the pressure. The naira traded between ₦1,430 and ₦1,450 to the dollar over the past week, creating uncertainty for fuel traders and affecting forward pricing.
New coastal pricing formulas tied to Platts benchmarks are also shaping expectations for higher replacement costs.
Analysts note that Dangote Refinery’s lack of any announced price reduction is another sign that the current relief may not last. Market behaviour suggests wholesalers may soon begin building inventories in anticipation of upward adjustments.
“Diesel may have dipped below ₦1,000, but all cost indicators point to a likely rebound. Rising landing costs and FX pressure will inevitably filter through the supply chain,” a Godfrey Olatunde, a Lagos-based energy analyst told TheTrustNews.com.
With cost drivers now trending upward, stakeholders warn that the modest price drop recorded this week may be temporary as the market prepares for another adjustment.
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