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OTL: $450b needed globally to guarantee stable energy supply

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• Downstream stabilising after subsidy removal, says Lokpobiri

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, yesterday said a $540 billion annual investment in oil and gas recovery and associated infrastructure is required globally to guarantee stable energy supply. He based his submission on the projections of a United Nations’ (UN) report. The Minister spoke yesterday at the opening ceremony of the 19th OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2025 which began in Lagos. It has as its theme: “Energy Sustainability: Growth Beyond Boundaries & Competition.”
According to him, the recent report by the UN underscores the urgent need for renewed global investment in the oil and gas industry to meet growing global population and energy demands.
The minister also made it known that Nigeria’s downstream sector is gradually stabilising following the removal of fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of petroleum product pricing- a development is described as a “bold and necessary step to attract private sector investment.”
“Subsidy was not sustainable. It discouraged private investment and placed a heavy financial burden on the government. What we are seeing now is a more competitive environment that encourages efficiency, accessibility and availability of petroleum products,” he explained.
In similar vein, the Chairman of the Advisory Board of OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week, Otunba Adetunji Oyebanji, in his opening speech, explained that while the removal of fuel subsidies and market liberalisation in the downstream sector may have presented short-term difficulties, they also mark necessary steps toward building a competitive, efficient and innovation-driven sector. He noted the ongoing progress in logistics optimisation, storage efficiency and digital trading platforms as signs of renewal within the industry.
“The downstream market is evolving amid both turbulence and transformation. Success will depend on our ability to combine innovation with policy stability and operational efficiency,” he said, even as he called for renewed collaboration, policy consistency and innovation to drive Africa’s energy sustainability and competitiveness in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Oyebanji said the conference’s theme underscores the need for Africa and Nigeria to look beyond conventional limits and create an energy future anchored on integration, inclusiveness, and responsible growth.
To this end, Lokpobiri therefore assured that as the world rethinks its approach to energy transition and returning focus to hydrocarbon development as a means of ensuring global energy security, the federal government, he said, is committed to deepening investment in the country’s oil and gas sector.
“The world has come to realise that energy transition cannot happen in a vacuum. Even as we pursue cleaner sources, the global economy still runs on oil and gas. Without substantial investment in these resources, there will be no financial capacities to fund the energy mix we all desire,” Lokpobiri stated.
He noted that while discussions around climate change and net-zero commitments remain important, the realities of global energy consumption and population growth have made it clear that hydrocarbons will continue to play a central role in the foreseeable future.
“Africa, with its population now exceeding 1.4 billion people, cannot afford to ignore investment in oil and gas. Expanding exploration, production and refining capacity is crucial not only for self-sufficiency but also for economic stability across the continent,” he said.
Lokpobiri commended President Bola Tinubu for taking decisive policy actions that have repositioned the downstream sector for long-term growth.
“It takes a courageous leader to make decisions that may be unpopular today but are necessary for the country’s future stability. What we are experiencing now is the outcome of such bold leadership,” he said.
He added that ongoing reforms in the oil and gas industry are geared toward ensuring energy security, encouraging domestic refining and fostering private sector participation across the value chain.
The minister also called on stakeholders in the downstream sector to align with the government’s policy direction and contribute to building a more sustainable and diversified energy future.
“We are no longer just talking about transition; we are talking about an energy mix that guarantees energy security for Africa. Every stakeholder must align with this vision to create the Africa we want,” Lokpobiri emphasised.
According to Oyebanji, the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week remains a bridge between policy and practice, bringing together regulators, operators, investors and innovators to shape the future of Africa’s downstream energy industry.
“Energy sustainability is not merely about preserving resources; it is about ensuring that our growth today does not compromise the prosperity of tomorrow. We must build an industry that is competitive, responsible, and adaptable to a rapidly changing global environment,” he admonished.
Oyebanji, a former Chairman of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), observed that the global energy sector is undergoing major shifts, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply uncertainties and the accelerating march towards energy transition.
He noted that conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have kept oil markets tight, while the global push toward cleaner fuels and renewables is reshaping investment priorities.
For Africa, he further said, these trends present both challenges and opportunities, insisting that the continent, richly endowed with natural resources and human capital, must move beyond being just a supplier of raw hydrocarbons to becoming a hub for innovation, efficiency and value addition.
“Africa must position itself not just as a source of energy, but as a source of innovation. Our growth must be sustainable, inclusive and borderless,” he echoed.
Oyenabji emphasised that Nigeria remains central to Africa’s energy transformation. The deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector, renewed focus on gas commercialisation and expanding infrastructure, he said, have laid a foundation for long-term growth.
However, he cautioned that sustained progress depends on policy stability, regulatory transparency, and institutional consistency. Investors, he noted, thrive on predictability, and long-term capital inflows which only comes with confidence in the regulatory environment.
Oyebanji called for a new mindset where collaboration becomes the new competition, urging industry players to balance innovation with inclusiveness and competition with cooperation.
“Our capacity to grow beyond boundaries depends not only on how hard we compete but on how well we cooperate,” he said.
He added that the future of energy lies in integration — bridging hydrocarbons, renewables, and alternative energy sources — to create a system that promotes both growth and environmental responsibility.
Oyebanji noted that over the past 19 years, OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week has evolved into the continent’s leading platform for policy dialogue, business networking, and innovation in the downstream value chain.
He urged stakeholders to seize the moment to define Africa’s path toward energy sustainability through infrastructure investment, capacity building and transparent governance. “We must invest in pipelines, depots, data systems and digital tools. We must build capacity through research and innovation. Above all, we must hold ourselves accountable to the highest standards of transparency and environmental responsibility,” he said.
The OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week, now in its 19th edition, serves as a premier platform for policy dialogue, industry networking, and investment promotion across Africa’s downstream petroleum value chain.

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Eight OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd

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The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to an OPEC statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The 137,000-bpd output increase, representing a partial and gradual return of the 1.65 million bpd additional voluntary cuts announced in April 2023, was made in light of a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, reflected in low oil inventories.
The countries also reaffirmed their commitment to closely monitor market developments and maintain full flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in November 2023.
At their previous meeting on Oct. 5, the eight producers had decided to raise output by the same amount of 137,000 bpd for November.
The next meeting of the eight-member OPEC+ group is scheduled for Nov. 30. OPEC+ production cuts had reached 5.85 million bpd in March, equivalent to around 5.7% of global demand.
These cuts reflect cumulative measures announced by member countries since late 2022, including the 2 million bpd reduction in October 2022, the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut by eight members in April 2023, and the 2.2 million bpd additional voluntary reduction in November 2023.
Member countries fully returned the 2.2 million bpd cut by the end of September and began a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut in October. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Output by 137,000 bpd. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd.

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Oil Prices Increase as OPEC+ Seeks to Avoid Supply Glut

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Oil prices increased on Monday after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies’ members (OPEC+) moved to avoid creating a supply glut in the global commodity market.
The oil group decided to pause further production hikes for the next quarter, a step seen as an effort to prevent a potential supply glut as demand slows and tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensify.
Brent crude was trading at $65.21 per barrel, up around 1% from the previous close of $64.57. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increased by 1.1% to $61.37, compared to $60.69 in the prior session.
The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to OPEC’s statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The modest hike is part of a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and comes amid “healthy market fundamentals” and low oil inventories.
Producers also reaffirmed their commitment to monitor market conditions and to keep flexibility to pause or reverse any changes, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary reductions announced in November 2023. They previously approved a similar 137,000-bpd increase for November.
Analysts said the pause signals a pre-emptive attempt to keep the market balanced.
“This period is normally a period of lower demand, and delegates said the decision to pause from January reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note.
“We suspect they’re also aware that the market may struggle to take any additional barrels, particularly if disruptions to Russian supply end up being temporary,” Hynes added.
Meanwhile, the war between Russia and Ukraine re-escalated over the weekend, with both sides targeting each other’s energy infrastructure as winter nears, supporting prices amid supply concerns.
Moscow and Kyiv traded accusations Sunday over overnight airstrikes that killed at least two people in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region and damaged energy facilities on both sides.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said in a statement on Telegram that an overnight Russian drone attack caused a fire in a parking area filled with trucks, which was later extinguished.
In Zaporizhzhia, Governor Ivan Fedorov said nearly 58,000 people lost electricity following the attack.
Ukraine’s Air Force said its defenses downed 67 of 79 strike drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched by Russia overnight.
In Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, the local operational headquarters said on Telegram that an oil terminal and tanker in the port town of Tuapse were damaged after fragments from downed Ukrainian drones fell on the site.
“According to preliminary information, there are no injuries. Emergency services are working at the scene,” it said, adding that a nearby railway station building was also damaged. Zenith Bank Price Target Sets at N81 after Q3 Earnings

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NMDPRA urges decentralisation in downstream market

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The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has called on investors to explore the northern region of the country for investments in energy growth. It said the region presents huge opportunities essential for Nigeria’s energy growth and economic balance, considering its vast population and growing demand for energy. It therefore urged investors in the oil and gas industry to diversify operations and expand beyond the South-South and South-West regions of the country.
The Executive Director, Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning (ERSP) at NMDPRA, Prof. Zainab Gobir, made the appeal during the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2025 which ended at the weekend in Lagos.
According to her, investors must rethink their business models and explore opportunities across all geopolitical zones to ensure equitable participation and sustainable energy access nationwide.
“The numbers exist across all regions; not just in the South. Population and available volumes in other regions matter and companies must model their operations around this reality to optimise margins and logistics,” he said.
Gobir disclosed that the Authority was leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics to enhance transparency, efficiency and investor engagement across Nigeria’s midstream and downstream oil and gas sectors.
“We are deploying AI for data collection and integrating it into our operations. We are taking feedback from Nigerians to identify bottlenecks and improve regulatory performance. Soon, consumers will be able to see pricing data in real time and choose the retail outlets they prefer,” she said.
According to her, the NMDPRA has automated key regulatory processes to improve operational efficiency, compliance monitoring and customer experience. She revealed that most of the Authority’s processes have been digitised and also activated customer platforms that follow all necessary licensing and qualification procedures.
“Through predictive and regression analysis, we can now understand the peculiarities of each oil and gas segment and respond proactively,” she revealed.
According to Gobir, the NMDPRA is developing a comprehensive data bank to give operators access to real-time market information and business intelligence.
“Our goal is to make data accessible. We are working on a platform where operators can track market trends and make informed business decisions.
“We have also automated our investment portal where prospective investors can register and join monthly roundtables to explore new opportunities in the sector.”
Gobir revealed that the Authority’s consumer experience platform has also been automated to allow the public to directly report market issues and engage with regulators.
Speaking on the impact of technology on regulation, Gobir described automation as inevitable, warning that operators who failed to adopt AI-driven systems risk being left behind.
“Automation is now a necessity. AI is not here to replace people but to enhance monitoring and improve accountability. It is a tool to help scale the market and drive sustainable growth,” she explained.
She said that Nigeria’s downstream market was both data-driven and population-driven, noting that taxation, logistics and market reach depend heavily on accurate demographic and operational data.
“Taxation is not only about the amount paid but also about the volume and reach of operations. Understanding population dynamics helps determine how far products like petrol and gas can go efficiently,” she added.
Gobir noted that the NMDPRA was evolving from a traditional regulator into a business enabler, and supporting small and medium-sized operators to scale up through technology and data access.
“We are helping MSMEs connect with customers. For instance, in the LPG sector, when operators provide their data, it allows consumers to locate the nearest LPG depot through our portal, (thus) increasing visibility, compliance, and business growth,” she said.
The Executive Director announced that NMDPRA was opening its systems to third-party data integration to foster inclusivity and improve market intelligence.
“We are now accepting third-party data to strengthen our automated system and ensure better market monitoring and inclusiveness,” Gobir said.
She reiterated the commitment of NMDPRA to promoting transparency, innovation, and regional equity in the downstream oil and gas industry as part of Nigeria’s broader push towards sustainable energy development.

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