Energy
Dangote Refinery expands to 1.4mbpd capacity
· Commends Tinubu’s reforms, projects $55bn annual revenue
· Plans NGX listing to empower Nigerians
President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has explained that the decision to expand the Dangote Petroleum Refinery from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd is driven by emerging opportunities across Africa, growing regional demand for cleaner fuels and Nigeria’s evolving policy environment that encourages local refining.
Speaking at a media briefing in Lagos, Dangote said the $20 billion facility, already the largest single-train refinery in the world, will more than double its capacity within the next three years, making it a global leader in petroleum refining and a major driver of Africa’s industrial renaissance.
“This expansion reflects our confidence in Nigeria’s future, our belief in Africa’s potential and our commitment to building energy independence for our continent and the world. It also is about confidence in Nigeria, in Africa and in our capacity to shape our own energy future.
”It is the dream of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, for Nigeria to emerge as one of the major suppliers of petroleum products in the world. And with his strong backing through his policies, we are taking on the challenge to make this happen,” Dangote said.
According to him, the expansion reflects the group’s belief in Africa’s potential to achieve energy security and transform its economy from being an exporter of raw crude to a hub for refined petroleum products.
Dangote revealed that the expansion project would be executed over the next three years and would be financed through a mix of cash flow, public listing and strategic investors. When completed, the refinery will surpass India’s Jamnagar Refinery, currently the world’s largest facility, cementing Nigeria’s position as a global refining hub.
He said the refinery will also expand its polypropylene production capacity from 900,000 metric tonnes to 2.4 million metric tonnes per annum, further boosting the output of linear alkylbenzene, a key ingredient in detergent manufacturing, along with additional production of base oils.
“With this expansion, the refinery transitions from producing Euro V to Euro VI fuel standards, meeting the highest global environmental benchmarks. We will also expand our power generation capacity to 1,000 megawatts, ensuring complete operational self-sufficiency. More than 85 per cent of our workforce will be Nigerians, with continuous investment in skills development and technology transfer. Our commitment to safety, sustainability and local participation remains unwavering throughout every phase of the expansion,” he said.
Highlighting the economic impact of the project, Dangote said the expansion would further strengthen Nigeria’s energy security, reduce foreign exchange outflows, and save the country billions of dollars annually that would otherwise go into importing refined products.
He estimated that the refinery’s revenue could exceed $55 billion annually, making it one of the most valuable industrial assets on the African continent.
Dangote reaffirmed plans to list a significant portion of the refinery’s shares on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) within the next year, describing it as part of efforts to democratise ownership and allow Nigerians to share in the value creation.
“Our main listing will be here in Nigeria to give Nigerians value. We want the Dangote Refinery to be the golden stock of the Exchange. Listing outside Nigeria is secondary to us. We want this to be a national asset in every sense. This is a step towards broader ownership and market transparency. Therefore we call on all Nigerians to seize this window, to benefit from this golden opportunity. Our long-term goal remains clear: to build Africa’s leading integrated energy and petrochemical hub, the first of its kind on the continent,” Dangote said.
He said the refinery’s strong cash flow, profitability prospects and strategic positioning would make it attractive to both local and global investors.
“This expansion will create additional jobs, support thousands of SMEs, and deepen our industrial base. Our goal has never been just to refine oil, but to refine opportunities for our people. It is a vote of confidence in Nigeria, in the reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, and in the ability of Africans to build and manage world-class infrastructure,” he added.
He expressed gratitude to President Tinubu and the Federal Government for supporting industrialisation policies such as Nigeria’s First, Naira-for-Crude and the ‘One-Stop Shop’ initiatives, which he said have emboldened investors to take on transformative projects.
He also commended the government’s intervention in mediating recent disruptions at the refinery linked to union activity and sabotage attempts, calling it a demonstration of effective collaboration between the public and private sectors.
Despite not yet recouping the initial investment in the 650,000 bpd phase, Dangote said the group is focused on long-term transformation rather than short-term returns.
“Refining is a long-term project. We are expanding because we believe in Africa. Without this refinery, Nigeria would still be buying dollars at ridiculous rates and depleting our reserves to import fuel,” he said.
He emphasised that Nigeria’s pump price remains among the lowest in the region despite the refinery’s production of higher-quality, cleaner fuels that have reduced toxic dumping in the country.
Dangote emphasised that the refinery has already made a difference by stabilising local fuel supply, helping to strengthen the naira, and preventing capital flight.
“Nigerians today buy petrol at roughly half the price of what our neighbours pay and it is even cheaper than in Saudi Arabia. Our product is of higher quality, meeting Euro VI standards, and it has significantly reduced the dumping of toxic fuel into our market,” he said.
As Nigeria approaches the festive season, Dangote assured the public that there would be no fuel scarcity or price hike during the ember months, despite recent global price increases.
“In the last three days, we have witnessed an eight per cent spike in global oil prices. But I want to assure Nigerians that the Dangote Refinery is fully committed to maintaining uninterrupted supply of petrol throughout the festive period. For the first time in many years, Nigerians can look forward to a Christmas and New Year free of fuel anxiety,” he added.
Dangote praised the Federal and Lagos State Governments for their continued support, along with the company’s host community in Lekki and its financial and technical partners.
“This expansion is not just about capacity; it is about confidence — in our people, in our government and in our continent. Together, we are building a stronger Nigeria and redefining what is possible for Africa,” the DIL President said.
He called on other investors holding refinery licences to emulate the example, urging collaboration in achieving President Tinubu’s vision of making Nigeria the refining hub of Africa.
“When Africa builds its own capacity, it builds its own destiny,” Dangote concluded.
Energy
Eight OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd
The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to an OPEC statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The 137,000-bpd output increase, representing a partial and gradual return of the 1.65 million bpd additional voluntary cuts announced in April 2023, was made in light of a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, reflected in low oil inventories.
The countries also reaffirmed their commitment to closely monitor market developments and maintain full flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in November 2023.
At their previous meeting on Oct. 5, the eight producers had decided to raise output by the same amount of 137,000 bpd for November.
The next meeting of the eight-member OPEC+ group is scheduled for Nov. 30. OPEC+ production cuts had reached 5.85 million bpd in March, equivalent to around 5.7% of global demand.
These cuts reflect cumulative measures announced by member countries since late 2022, including the 2 million bpd reduction in October 2022, the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut by eight members in April 2023, and the 2.2 million bpd additional voluntary reduction in November 2023.
Member countries fully returned the 2.2 million bpd cut by the end of September and began a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut in October. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Output by 137,000 bpd. #8 OPEC+ Members to Raise Oil Output by 137,000 bpd.
Energy
Oil Prices Increase as OPEC+ Seeks to Avoid Supply Glut
Oil prices increased on Monday after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies’ members (OPEC+) moved to avoid creating a supply glut in the global commodity market.
The oil group decided to pause further production hikes for the next quarter, a step seen as an effort to prevent a potential supply glut as demand slows and tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensify.
Brent crude was trading at $65.21 per barrel, up around 1% from the previous close of $64.57. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also increased by 1.1% to $61.37, compared to $60.69 in the prior session.
The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, while pausing further increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonality, according to OPEC’s statement on Sunday.
The group, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, met virtually on Sunday to review global oil market conditions and the outlook.
The modest hike is part of a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and comes amid “healthy market fundamentals” and low oil inventories.
Producers also reaffirmed their commitment to monitor market conditions and to keep flexibility to pause or reverse any changes, including the 2.2 million bpd voluntary reductions announced in November 2023. They previously approved a similar 137,000-bpd increase for November.
Analysts said the pause signals a pre-emptive attempt to keep the market balanced.
“This period is normally a period of lower demand, and delegates said the decision to pause from January reflects expectations of a seasonal slowdown,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note.
“We suspect they’re also aware that the market may struggle to take any additional barrels, particularly if disruptions to Russian supply end up being temporary,” Hynes added.
Meanwhile, the war between Russia and Ukraine re-escalated over the weekend, with both sides targeting each other’s energy infrastructure as winter nears, supporting prices amid supply concerns.
Moscow and Kyiv traded accusations Sunday over overnight airstrikes that killed at least two people in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region and damaged energy facilities on both sides.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said in a statement on Telegram that an overnight Russian drone attack caused a fire in a parking area filled with trucks, which was later extinguished.
In Zaporizhzhia, Governor Ivan Fedorov said nearly 58,000 people lost electricity following the attack.
Ukraine’s Air Force said its defenses downed 67 of 79 strike drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched by Russia overnight.
In Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, the local operational headquarters said on Telegram that an oil terminal and tanker in the port town of Tuapse were damaged after fragments from downed Ukrainian drones fell on the site.
“According to preliminary information, there are no injuries. Emergency services are working at the scene,” it said, adding that a nearby railway station building was also damaged. Zenith Bank Price Target Sets at N81 after Q3 Earnings
Energy
NMDPRA urges decentralisation in downstream market
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has called on investors to explore the northern region of the country for investments in energy growth. It said the region presents huge opportunities essential for Nigeria’s energy growth and economic balance, considering its vast population and growing demand for energy. It therefore urged investors in the oil and gas industry to diversify operations and expand beyond the South-South and South-West regions of the country.
The Executive Director, Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning (ERSP) at NMDPRA, Prof. Zainab Gobir, made the appeal during the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week 2025 which ended at the weekend in Lagos.
According to her, investors must rethink their business models and explore opportunities across all geopolitical zones to ensure equitable participation and sustainable energy access nationwide.
“The numbers exist across all regions; not just in the South. Population and available volumes in other regions matter and companies must model their operations around this reality to optimise margins and logistics,” he said.
Gobir disclosed that the Authority was leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics to enhance transparency, efficiency and investor engagement across Nigeria’s midstream and downstream oil and gas sectors.
“We are deploying AI for data collection and integrating it into our operations. We are taking feedback from Nigerians to identify bottlenecks and improve regulatory performance. Soon, consumers will be able to see pricing data in real time and choose the retail outlets they prefer,” she said.
According to her, the NMDPRA has automated key regulatory processes to improve operational efficiency, compliance monitoring and customer experience. She revealed that most of the Authority’s processes have been digitised and also activated customer platforms that follow all necessary licensing and qualification procedures.
“Through predictive and regression analysis, we can now understand the peculiarities of each oil and gas segment and respond proactively,” she revealed.
According to Gobir, the NMDPRA is developing a comprehensive data bank to give operators access to real-time market information and business intelligence.
“Our goal is to make data accessible. We are working on a platform where operators can track market trends and make informed business decisions.
“We have also automated our investment portal where prospective investors can register and join monthly roundtables to explore new opportunities in the sector.”
Gobir revealed that the Authority’s consumer experience platform has also been automated to allow the public to directly report market issues and engage with regulators.
Speaking on the impact of technology on regulation, Gobir described automation as inevitable, warning that operators who failed to adopt AI-driven systems risk being left behind.
“Automation is now a necessity. AI is not here to replace people but to enhance monitoring and improve accountability. It is a tool to help scale the market and drive sustainable growth,” she explained.
She said that Nigeria’s downstream market was both data-driven and population-driven, noting that taxation, logistics and market reach depend heavily on accurate demographic and operational data.
“Taxation is not only about the amount paid but also about the volume and reach of operations. Understanding population dynamics helps determine how far products like petrol and gas can go efficiently,” she added.
Gobir noted that the NMDPRA was evolving from a traditional regulator into a business enabler, and supporting small and medium-sized operators to scale up through technology and data access.
“We are helping MSMEs connect with customers. For instance, in the LPG sector, when operators provide their data, it allows consumers to locate the nearest LPG depot through our portal, (thus) increasing visibility, compliance, and business growth,” she said.
The Executive Director announced that NMDPRA was opening its systems to third-party data integration to foster inclusivity and improve market intelligence.
“We are now accepting third-party data to strengthen our automated system and ensure better market monitoring and inclusiveness,” Gobir said.
She reiterated the commitment of NMDPRA to promoting transparency, innovation, and regional equity in the downstream oil and gas industry as part of Nigeria’s broader push towards sustainable energy development.
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