Economy
‘Economy on brighter stead in H2’, says Dr. Yusuf
- CPPE hails H1 economic fundamentals
An economist and policy analyst, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said Nigeria is entering the second half of 2026 with its strongest macroeconomic fundamentals in several years than what obtained at the beginning of the year.
Instrumental to this feat are exchange-rate stability, moderating inflation relative to the exceptionally elevated levels of 2025, stronger external reserves, improved oil production and resilient financial markets, which have all contributed to reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and strengthening investor confidence.
Given the renewed confidence in the economy, Yusuf, who is also the Chief Executive Officer, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that while the body remains remains cautiously optimistic of an improved economy, yet, the economic output performance is expected to remain positive, supported by financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade, oil refining and other service-sector activities. It noted that although growth is likely to remain below Nigeria’s long-term potential, the economy appears firmly on a gradual recovery path.
“Inflation is expected to remain substantially below 2025 levels, although food supply disruptions, energy costs and developments in global commodity markets remain important upside risks. Exchange-rate stability should be sustained by stronger foreign exchange inflows, healthier reserves and improved market confidence,” Yusuf said.
Still, the economist’s optimism of an upscale in the economy is further buoyed by the financial markets which are expected to remain broadly resilient, supported by banking-sector recapitalisation, stronger corporate earnings, improved regulatory oversight and sustained institutional participation.
Importantly, Yusuf said improved domestic refining capacity and stronger crude oil production will also significantly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings and energy security.
He however cautioned that the second half of the year also presents an important downside risk to the gains recorded in the economy so far owing to the increasing intensity of political and electioneering activities ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Election-related spending could inject additional liquidity into the economy, with possible implications for inflationary pressures, foreign exchange demand and macroeconomic management. There is also a risk that growing political activity could distract policymakers from economic governance, reform implementation and the execution of critical fiscal and structural policy initiatives,” Yusuf cautioned.
The prospects now offered in the second half of the year, the CPPE boss said, are built on the gains recorded during the first half which was characterised the first half of the year. These, he explained, were reflected in the continued progress in macroeconomic stabilisation as economic growth remained positive, the foreign exchange market became more orderly, external reserves improved, crude oil production strengthened modestly and government revenues benefited from improved oil receipts and stronger non-oil tax collections, including the financial markets which also remained resilient, supported by improving investor confidence and policy credibility.
But notwithstanding these encouraging developments, the real economy, he argued, remained under considerable pressure with high interest rates continuing to constrain private-sector investment and access to credit, while elevated energy costs, inadequate electricity supply, logistics inefficiencies and weak transport infrastructure sustained a high-cost operating environment. Manufacturing, agriculture and MSMEs, he said, faced persistent competitiveness challenges despite improvements in macroeconomic stability.
“Insecurity continued to undermine agricultural production, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment across several sectors. Meanwhile, capital expenditure implementation remained below expectations because of procurement delays, funding constraints and debt-service pressures, limiting the growth impact of fiscal policy.
“Overall, H1 2026 was characterised by stronger macroeconomic stability but only modest improvements in real-sector performance and household welfare, underscoring the need for deeper structural reforms,” he said.
While Yusuf explained that the improvement in macroeconomic indicators provides an important foundation for sustainable growth, he nonetheless cautioned that these indicators are not all sufficient.
“The next phase of reform should focus on lowering production costs, improving productivity and strengthening the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. Priority should be given to improving electricity supply, transport infrastructure, logistics efficiency, and port operations; strengthening security in farming communities and along transport corridors; expanding access to affordable long-term finance for productive sectors; accelerating budget implementation, strengthening budget process credibility, and improving infrastructure delivery; and deepening domestic value addition.
“Government revenue should increasingly be driven by efficiency-enhancing reforms rather than additional tax burdens, while policy consistency should be preserved despite increasing political activity ahead of the 2027 elections. It is equally important to minimise governance distractions and ensure that electioneering does not weaken the pace of reforms, budget implementation or the quality of economic management,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.
Economy
FAAC: Fed. Govt, States, LGs Share N2.428tr September Revenue
The three tiers of government have shared N2.428 trillion revenue generated by the Federation in September 2026, according to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).
The amount was shared at the committee’s October meeting in Abuja, with the Federal Government receiving N832.242 billion, state governments getting N799.872 billion and local government councils receiving N560.660 billion. The beneficiary states of the 13 percent derivative also received N236.049 billion as derivation revenue from mineral resources.
The Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Bawa Mokwa, disclosed this in a statement on the outcome of the meeting yesterday in Abuja.
The total distributable revenue comprised N1.672 trillion from statutory revenue and N756.587 billion from Value Added Tax (VAT).
According to the communiqué issued by FAAC, the Federation generated gross revenue of N3.913 trillion in September. However, N131.758 billion was deducted as the cost of collecting the revenue, while N1.352 trillion went into transfers, refunds and savings.
The figures show that the amount shared among the three tiers of government was lower than the gross revenue available for the month after the various deductions and other obligations were taken into account.
A breakdown of the statutory revenue showed that the Federal Government received N756.583 billion, while the state governments got N383.749 billion. The local government councils received N295.855 billion, while N236.049 billion was paid to the benefiting states as their 13 per cent derivation share of mineral revenue.
From the N756.587 billion distributable VAT revenue, the Federal Government received N75.659 billion, state governments got N416.123 billion and local government councils received N264.805 billion.
The allocation figures show that state governments and local government councils received the larger shares of the distributable VAT revenue, while the Federal Government received a smaller portion.
The communiqué also showed that gross statutory revenue rose in September, while VAT revenue declined during the period.
Gross statutory revenue stood at N3.096 trillion in September, compared with N2.850 trillion recorded in August. The increase of N246.384 billion represented a rise in revenue available from statutory sources.
In contrast, gross VAT revenue fell to N816.872 billion in September from N834.843 billion in August, representing a decline of N17.972 billion.
The difference in the performance of the two revenue sources means that the increase in statutory revenue was accompanied by a reduction in VAT receipts during the month.
FAAC attributed the changes in revenue performance to increases in some tax and petroleum-related revenue sources, alongside declines in others.
Petroleum Profit Tax, Hydrocarbon Tax, petroleum royalties, import duty, Common External Tariff (CET) levies and excise duty recorded significant increases in September.
However, Companies Income Tax (CIT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Stamp Duties Tax (SDT), VAT, mineral royalties, gas-flaring penalties, rental gas-flaring fees and miscellaneous oil revenue declined during the period.
Economy
Temporary fuel price relief is not subsidy, says Dr. Yusuf
By Oluwayanmife Lucas
Economic policy group and economist yesterday lent their support to the federal government’s decision to implement a temporary fuel price relief. They warned that this relief should not be misconstrued as return of subsidy on petroleum products, but be seen as a priority by government to protect vulnerable citizens, preserve the sustainability of public finances and maintain the integrity of ongoing economic reforms.
Besides, they warned that the commercial status of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) Limited does not eliminate the government’s responsibility to respond to exceptional public-interest considerations.
NNPC Ltd., the group maintained, remains a government-owned commercial enterprise with a diversified portfolio of petroleum-related businesses, whose commercial mandate should ordinarily guide its operations. However, the policy group argued, temporary and clearly defined public-interest interventions can be accommodated within an appropriate governance framework.
The Group, Center for the promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), a policy and economic think-tank group, in a chat with The Nation yesterday, argued that the critical consideration is that such interventions must be transparent, proportionate, time-bound and financially sustainable.
The CPPE further noted that the current global energy crisis demands pragmatic policy responses, not ideological rigidity. It further argued that although economic reforms must remain sustainable, but they must also be responsive to the welfare of the people.
Therefore, it explained, Nigeria does not need a return to the “fiscally destructive” subsidy regime, but a credible framework for temporary, targeted and transparent social protection during exceptional economic shocks.
Speaking with exclusively The Trust News, the Chief Executive Officer, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, explained that economic policies are instruments for promoting citizens’ welfare; hence, they should not become rigid doctrines that prevent governments from responding to exceptional social and economic difficulties.
He noted that the current escalation in petroleum product prices is driven principally by developments in the global energy market, particularly geopolitical tensions that have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. He described this as an “external shock affecting both oil-producing and oil-importing economies; it is neither a consequence of Nigeria’s subsidy removal policy nor peculiar to the Nigerian economy.”
Dr. Yusuf warned against the misconception that the Federal Government’s recent fuel price relief initiative through the NNPC is a reversal of the petroleum subsidy removal policy. Such an interpretation, he argued, is misleading and fails to distinguish between a fundamental policy reversal and a temporary intervention in response to an extraordinary economic shock.
“Extraordinary economic circumstances sometimes require exceptional policy responses. Governments across the world have historically intervened to cushion households and businesses against severe external shocks without abandoning their underlying economic policy frameworks. The COVID-19 pandemic provided compelling evidence of this approach, even in advanced market economies.
“The intervention is substantially different in scale, design and potential fiscal implications from the previous subsidy regime. Its temporary character and limited market coverage are important distinctions,” Dr. Yusuf said.
According to him, the removal of the previous petroleum subsidy was a necessary structural reform, therefore, reinstating a broad-based consumption subsidy would recreate serious fiscal vulnerabilities and undermine the gains from economic reforms.
He explained further: “For illustration, a subsidy of ₦1,000 per litre on national consumption of 50 million litres daily would create a fiscal exposure of approximately ₦50 billion daily; ₦1.5 trillion monthly and ₦18.25 trillion annually. Such an obligation would be fiscally unsustainable, especially in an economy facing substantial infrastructure deficits, debt-service commitments and competing development priorities. However, a limited and temporary intervention should not automatically be interpreted as a deterioration in policy credibility.”
Dr. Yusuf, an economist, explained that investors are principally concerned about policy predictability, market access, commercial viability, fiscal sustainability and the protection of legitimate investments. These fundamentals, he said, need not be compromised by a narrowly targeted emergency relief measure.
In this regard, the CPPE argued that there is a need to have a critical distinction between the previous subsidy regime and the current intervention. Under the former subsidy arrangement, Dr. Yusuf said, government effectively carried a substantial fiscal burden on nationwide petrol consumption, estimated at various times at between 50 million and 80 million litres daily. This arrangement created enormous fiscal pressures, weakened public finances, crowded out development spending and contributed to macroeconomic instability.
Citing an illustrative calculation based on the volumes contained in the ministerial commentary; by contrast, he said, the current intervention covers approximately 70 million litres of NNPC fuel supply monthly, compared with estimated national petrol consumption of 50 million litres daily and an estimated national monthly consumption of 1.5 billion litres; while NNPC monthly volume under the intervention will be 70 million litres, translating to an estimated national consumption of 4.7 per cent
“Arising from these figures, an intervention covering less than five per cent of estimated national consumption cannot reasonably be equated with a nationwide subsidy regime. More importantly, the intervention does not reinstate an administered national petrol price, impose a general subsidy obligation on private operators or dismantle the market-oriented framework for petroleum product pricing.
“The appropriate questions should therefore concern the fiscal cost, transparency, duration, beneficiaries and effectiveness of the intervention, rather than an inaccurate characterisation of it as a wholesale policy reversal,” Dr. Yusuf argued.
But beyond fuel discounts, the CPPE said there is a need to addressing the wider social costs. It said that while the proposed fuel price relief is a welcome development, its limited coverage means that its aggregate impact on household welfare will also be limited.
Government, the group further highlighted, should pursue broader interventions that address the principal channels through which the energy price shock affects citizens.
In a four-point agenda, the CPPE said the government should scale up affordable mass transit, because transportation is one of the most immediate transmission channels of higher energy prices to household expenditure and business operating costs. To this end, the group said the federal and state governments should prioritise high-capacity buses, including CNG, electric and other economically viable alternatives.
Support for agricultural productivity and food supply, strengthening state and local government interventions by way of states designating discounted fuel outlets, limited emergency fuel allocations for essential services, like subsidised public transport and targeted support for vulnerable households, should be considered, as well as protecting the integrity of petroleum market reforms.
“Government should sustain market-based pricing, fair competition, transparent regulation and a trade policy framework that supports domestic refining investment. Emergency interventions should not become a pretext for arbitrary price controls or the reintroduction of opaque fiscal obligations,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.
Economy
National Single Window project drives up import licenses by 30% to 156,000
By Monireoluwa Lucas
Owing to the compliance with the National Single Window (NSW) project, the phase one, which was launched on March 27, 2026 to facilitate trade has increased the processing of import licenses by 30 per cent to 156,000.
The NSW Project Director, Mr. Tola Fakolade made this known in Abuja at a media parley.
The NSW is a centralized electronic trade platform launched by the Nigerian government to streamline import and export processes.
He announced that that phase 2, which is export focused will take off at the end of 2026.
He recalled that the Phase 1 of the platform that is import based officially went live on March 27, 2026, following its initial commission and steering committee inauguration by the President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu on April 16, 2024.
The project which has reduced paperwork, according to him, allows a single submission of trade documents instead of interacting with multiple individual agencies. It has sped up cargo movement and port turnaround times.
Commenting on the efficiency of the phase 1, the Project Coordinator said,
“We have over 156, 000 licenses and permits have been processed through the platform…The number of licenses and permits that have been issued compared to the same period last year has gone up between 20 to 30 per cent.
” So for us, that gives us the Assurance that you know the single window is delivering, which is blocking some of the loopholes that existed before and really driving compliance.”
He described the phase 1 of the project as import centric, through which importers can apply for licenses and permits direct to NAFDAC, SON, and NESREA.
The NSW project has replaced fragmented, paper-based Customs and regulatory procedures with a single digital portal and integrates data sharing, electronic payments, and real-time cargo tracking across sea ports, airports, and border scanning locations.
He described the NSW as the platform where all the regulatory forms that Central Bank of Nigeria requires will be processed.
The Project Coordinator added: “So we are also working and collaborating very closely with CBN. I will also plan to launch the import Duty exemption certificate on the single window.”
The final approval, he said, will still come from the Federal Minister of Finance.
On who can use it, Fakolade stressed that importers, exporters, clearing and forwarding agents, shipping lines, airlines, and freight forwarders can apply it in their services.
According to him, the project which has registered over 12,000 importers and agents does not take over role of any agency.
He said the manifest is evident that the project, which has recorded strong adoption, has five Ministries Departments and Agencies.
He revealed that it has also trained over 8,000 users.
He recalled that part of the teething challenges of the NSW was knowledge gap, noting that the project has now trained 5,000 people with the target to extend it to more beneficiaries.
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