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15% import duty on refined petroleum products a positive development, says Yusuf

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• No country has achieved industrialisation through indiscriminate trade liberalisation, says CPPE

The 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum products has been hailed as a positive policy proposition capable of catalyzing industrial expansion, conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, promote economic resilience of the country if complemented with broader industrial support measures. Welcoming the 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum products, that is petrol and diesel—is therefore a welcome development and a progressive and corrective measure.
Besides, the 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum imports is a modest policy support needed to protect domestic refineries such as Dangote Refinery, NNPCL refineries and emerging modular refineries to thrive, restore Nigeria’s refining capacity and reduce foreign exchange exposure.
This was the submission yesterday by the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), an economic policy advocacy group, describing the 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum products, as a “welcome development, a progressive and corrective measure.”
Examining the import duty policy on refined petroleum products in its position paper, the Group noted that the country’s excessive dependence on imports over the past few decades has weakened its productive base, eroded competitiveness and exposed the economy to external shocks.
According to the CPPE, the continuous importation of petroleum products over the past two decades has imposed immense costs on the Nigerian economy, whose consequences include sustained pressure on foreign exchange reserves, fiscal instability and the collapse of domestic refining.
The Chief Executive Officer, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, noted that the policy will help the country achieve industrialization, which is said, is central to Nigeria’s long-term economic growth, job creation and national sovereignty. He insisted that countries deliberately implement protectionist policies for its industrial growth and therefore, the federal government in right to implement policies that will ensure survival, growth and sustainability of indigenous industries.
“History and global experience show that no country has achieved industrialisation through indiscriminate trade liberalisation. The CPPE therefore advocates for strategic protectionism—a calibrated policy approach that safeguards domestic and emerging industries while building competitiveness and self-sufficiency particularly in key industrial sectors, as the foundation for Nigeria’s industrialisation drive,” Yusuf.
According to Yusuf, an economist, sectors that enjoyed measured protection—such as cement, flour and beverages have recorded remarkable domestic growth and value addition. For instance, he explained that in flour milling, the combined import charges exceed 70 per cent, fostering backward integration and domestic capacity expansion. In agro-processing, the average import tariffs which is above 30 per cent, has stimulated local production and employment; while in pharmaceuticals, the import restrictions on selected product groups have promoted health sovereignty and encouraged local manufacturing.
He said that while concerns about short-term price increases are valid, they are transitional as the long-term solution lies not in liberalising imports but in improving domestic efficiency. Besides, he explained that as domestic industries scale up, production costs will decline, leading to price stabilisation and consumer welfare gains.
“So in this context, a 15 per cent duty on refined petroleum products is modest, balanced and necessary to restore Nigeria’s refining capacity and fiscal resilience.
“Exposing local industries to global competition without addressing structural constraints is not desirable and legitimate competition—it is policy-induced disadvantage. Nigerian manufacturers face high energy costs, weak infrastructure, limited access to finance, inefficient ports and complex regulatory frameworks.
“Producers in advanced economies, by contrast, enjoy subsidised energy, efficient logistics, and low-interest financing. Without correcting this imbalance, Nigerian firms cannot compete fairly. Genuine competition requires comparable production conditions, not a contest between subsidized imports and under-supported domestic producers,” the CPPE boss argued.
According to Yusuf, Nigeria’s prolonged dependence on imports has created deep structural distortions. The absence of effective protection and inadequate support for local producers, he insisted, has discouraged investment and led to decades of deindustrialisation.
This failure, he said, is well epitomised in the oil and gas sector given the decades of refined product importation which has drained the country’s foreign reserves, weakened fiscal stability and eroded economic sovereignty.
Urging that Nigeria’s journey to sustainable industrialisation must be anchored on strategic, time-bound protectionism, not indiscriminate liberalisation because no country has industrialised through unrestrained exposure to imports, Yusuf said the country must adopt a competition model that prioritises domestic production over import dependence, where producers can compete with fellow producers, not with importers. Besides, he advocated that both indigenous and foreign investors should be encouraged to produce locally through clear, consistent and performance-based policies. This approach, which he said has been successfully applied in the cement, flour and beverage industries, can be replicated across sectors to achieve self-sufficiency and export readiness within a decade.
Reemphasising the need for developing economies like Nigeria requires a measured degree of protectionism for industrial take-off, Yusuf pointed to the Asian countries’ success stories- China, South Korea, India and Malaysia, who built their industrial strength through inward-looking strategies during their formative decades. “They protected infant industries, promoted local content, and developed domestic value chains before gradually opening up to global competition. Even the United States, the world’s largest economy, has recently adopted protectionist industrial policies to bolster its manufacturing base,” Yusuf said.
To institutionalise a balanced and growth-oriented protectionist framework, CPPE recommended that the federal government should sustain the 15 per cent import duty on refined petroleum products to protect and incentivise investment in domestic refining; complement tariff protection with industrial support policies, including low-cost financing, energy access and improved logistics to prevent price escalation; expand backward integration incentives in petrochemicals, steel, agro-processing and pharmaceuticals; strengthen monitoring and evaluation to ensure protection fosters productivity, innovation and price moderation; and transition to export competitiveness once domestic industries attain stability, ensuring protection is performance-based and time-bound.
While the CPPE admits that industrialisation is a gradual process that begins with consolidating the domestic market, progresses through regional expansion and culminates in global competitiveness, it explained that strategic protectionism provides the enabling environment for this evolution.
The Group noted that by shielding emerging industries from premature exposure to unfair competition, strategic protectionism encourages domestic investment, fosters local value addition and allows firms to achieve efficiency and scale before competing globally.
It added that for Nigeria, this approach should not be seen as “economic isolation or the creation of monopolies”, but should rather be seen as a “self-strengthening strategy to ensure the domestic economy develops sufficient capacity to compete effectively on the global stage.”
Yusuf noted that a properly designed protectionist measures deliver broad developmental dividends. These, he noted to include stimulating industrial growth and job creation; conserve foreign exchange and stabilise the naira; promote backward integration and local value addition; enhance macroeconomic and fiscal resilience; encourage innovation, technology transfer and long-term competitiveness.
Therefore, to ensure protection yields sustainable benefits, government must complement it with fiscal incentives and targeted subsidies; access to low-cost financing; reliable and affordable energy supply; strategic infrastructure investment and streamlined regulatory processes.
“Ultimately, strategic protectionism supports national self-reliance while laying the foundation for globally competitive industries,” Dr. Yusuf submitted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economy

Budget 2026: Government places hold on new capital projects

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• Caps spending at 70%
The Federal Government has released the 2026 Budget Call Circular, setting strict guidelines for Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) as they prepare next year’s spending proposals.
A major component of the circular is the decision to fix sectoral capital budget ceilings for 2026 at 70 percent of the capital allocations approved for each MDA in the 2025 fiscal year.
According to the circular signed by the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, the new framework means government has already determined how much every MDA can spend on capital projects in 2026. Each department’s budget ceiling for 2026 will be 70 percent of what they were given to spend on projects in 2025.
The minister stated that the approach is tied to the administration’s plan to release 30 percent of the 2025 capital budget within the current fiscal year. The remaining 70 percent will be retained as the foundation for the 2026 capital budget rather than rolled over through the usual extension process.
Under the new rules, MDAs must restrict their 2026 submissions to only projects and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) codes contained in the approved 2025 budget.
“Submissions that exceed the 70 percent ceiling or include unapproved new projects will be considered non-compliant,” the document warned, adding that the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) will adjust any such proposals to align with the approved limits.
On overheads, the circular directed MDAs to work strictly within their 2025 overhead ceilings as contained in the Executive Proposal. While acknowledging the impact of inflation on operational costs, the government noted ongoing revenue pressures. Nonetheless, Bagudu assured that efforts will continue “to achieve full release of the overhead budget.”
The circular further instructed MDAs to upload 70 percent of their 2025 capital budget for continuation in 2026. These rollovers must reflect the country’s most urgent needs and align with the administration’s priorities in national security, the economy, education, health, agriculture, infrastructure, power and energy, social safety nets, and women and youth empowerment.
“All Ministers/Chief Executives/Accounting Officers and other officers responsible for budget preparation are advised to read this Budget Call Circular carefully,” the circular stated. Bagudu added, “All are also enjoined to strictly adhere to these guidelines and instructions including, but not limited to, the revenue and cost optimisation measures indicated herein.”
The minister stressed that the 2026 budget must reflect the policies and strategies set out in the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, which serves as the Federal Government’s pre-budget statement.
He noted that global and domestic economic indicators point toward gradually improving activity, which informs the medium-term revenue and expenditure outlook.
Bagudu said the government remains committed to improving the efficiency and quality of public spending. He explained that federal expenditure will continue to undergo rigorous scrutiny to ensure only essential activities are funded and that value for money is achieved. He also noted ongoing reforms to strengthen budget formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.
As part of the preparation process, the 2026 budget will be compiled using the Budget Preparation Subsystem (BPS) on the GIFMIS platform. All MDAs are required to prepare and submit their budget proposals through the online system. He disclosed that relevant personnel will be re-trained to ensure they can use the platform effectively.
The BOF has already prepared personnel cost estimates for each MDA using data from the Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System (IPPIS) and earlier submissions. “Each MDA will be advised accordingly of its personnel cost budget for FY 2026,” the ministry said.
To support MDAs during the process, the BOF confirmed that assigned schedule and sector officers will be available to offer technical assistance. The Budget Help-Desk will also provide online support via 08000-CALLBOF (08000 2255 263) or through the BOF website.
MDAs with access to the Galaxy Backbone IP-phone system may also call 595186, 595193, or 595194. However, the circular made it clear that ultimate responsibility rests with agency heads. “The Chief Executive/Accounting Officer of each MDA takes responsibility for proper preparation and prompt submission of its budget,” it stated.
All Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) must submit their budgets via the Budget Information Management and Monitoring System (BIMMS) by Tuesday, 9 December 2025. MDAs using the GIFMIS BPS platform are also to complete their submissions by the same deadline. The circular noted that it is not the duty of Budget Officers to upload budgets on behalf of any MDA or GOE.
The minister directed every Minister, Chief Executive and Accounting Officer to immediately share the circular with all parastatals and agencies under their supervision to ensure full compliance with the guidelines ahead of the 2026 budget cycle.

 

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Nigeria nets N2.06 trillion VAT in Q2 2025, says NBS

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the aggregate Value Added Tax (VAT) stood at N2.06 trillion in Q2 2025. This is according to the VAT Q2 2025 Report released in Abuja on Tuesday.
The report shows a decrease of 0.03 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis from N2.06 trillion recorded in Q1 2025.
The report also showed that local payments recorded were N1.09 trillion while foreign VAT payments contributed N459.95 billion, while import VAT contributed N508.55 billion in Q2 2025.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the report showed that real estate activities recorded the highest growth rate at 155.21 per cent , followed by the activities of Agriculture, forestry and fishing at 23.64 per cent.
This was followed by Information and communication at 17.75 per cent .
“On the other hand, human health and social work activities had the lowest growth rate at –68.34 per cent , followed by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply with – 45.20 per cent.
“This was followed by Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities at –29.36 per cent.”
In terms of sectoral contributions, the report showed the top three activities with the largest shares in Q2 2025 were manufacturing at 27.19 per cent, information and communication at 20.76 per cent and mining and quarrying at 15.04 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share at 0.005 per cent.
“This was followed by activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies at 0.02 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management at 0.03 per cent.”
However, on a year-on-year basis, it showed that VAT collections in Q2 2025, increased by 32.15 per cent from Q2 2024.
Meanwhile the aggregate VAT for Q1 2025 stood at N2.06 trillion, showing an increase of 6.02 per cent from the N1.95 religion recorded in Q4 2024.
According to the VAT Q1 2025 report local payments recorded were N1.10trillion while foreign VAT payments contributed N454.76 billion, while import VAT contributed N507.00 billion.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the report showed that electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the highest growth rate at 136.71 per cent , followed by the activities of administrative and support service activities at 45.24 per cent . This was followed by Professional, scientific and technical activities at 39.00 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies had the lowest growth rate at 35.70 per cent , followed by wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; and real estate activities at –14.51 per cent and –11.54 per cent , respectively. ”
In terms of sectoral contributions, the top three activities with the largest shares in Q1 2025 were manufacturing at 26.03 per cent, information and communication at 17.51 per cent and mining and quarrying at 17.02 per cent.
“On the other hand, activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services-producing activities of households for own use recorded the least share at 0.004 per cent.
“This was followed by activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies at 0.02 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management at 0.04 per cent.”
However, on a year-on-year basis, it showed that VAT collections in Q1 2025, increased by 44.24 per cent from Q1 2024.

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ICPC: Tax evasion, cybercrime, others fuel Africa’s $50b yearly financial leak

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By Grace Edet

Africa is losing more than $50 billion every year to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a drain that is stifling development, eroding public revenues and undermining the continent’s long-term economic goals, the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has warned.
ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Aliyu, gave the warning on Wednesday at the RealNews Magazine 13th Anniversary Lecture in Lagos, where he described the persistent capital flight as “one of the most devastating drains on Africa’s development capacity.”
According to him, the lost funds—diverted through tax evasion, corruption, illegal mining, wildlife trafficking, profit shifting, and cyber-enabled crime, could have financed schools, hospitals, roads and other critical public infrastructure.
He said: “Illicit financial flows, whether through tax evasion, corruption or cybercrime, have become a silent crisis that threatens Africa’s sovereignty and the future of its youth.”
Aliyu disclosed that ICPC investigations have exposed cases where multinational corporations manipulated trade figures and inflated operating costs to evade taxes. In one instance, he said, a major firm exaggerated its expenses to shrink its taxable profit, adding: “The amount lost would have been enough to construct a world-class hospital in Nigeria.”
He described trade mispricing, profit shifting and tax evasion as “some of the biggest contributors to financial leakages,” noting that corrupt officials also worsened the crisis by diverting public funds through multiple bank accounts, often with the collusion of financial institutions.
The ICPC chairman warned that Africa’s rapid digital transition, where mobile-money usage has surpassed 50 percent in several countries, has exposed the region to an unprecedented wave of cyber-enabled crimes.
He said: “Cyber criminals are becoming more sophisticated. Ransomware attacks, cryptocurrency-based laundering and mobile-money fraud are growing threats.”
Aliyu added that criminal networks often possess more advanced tools and resources than enforcement agencies, making it increasingly difficult to track stolen funds once they leave African jurisdictions. He also highlighted ongoing ICPC investigations into ghost-worker syndicates manipulating payroll systems to divert salaries.
To curb the losses, he urged the National Assembly to speed up the passage of the Whistleblower Protection Bill, stressing that citizens cannot provide critical intelligence “if they are not protected.”
He also called for stronger cyber laws, improved digital infrastructure, dedicated training for enforcement agencies, and full implementation of the Malabo Convention on Cybersecurity and Data Protection.
He emphasised the need for African countries to adopt a coordinated approach to asset recovery and demand the return of looted funds and cultural artefacts held abroad.
“We must secure our financial systems and protect our digital space. Only then can Africa realise its full potential,” he said.
Chairperson of the event and former Chief Judge of Lagos State, Justice Ayotunde Phillips, also urged African governments and the private sector to prioritise the continent’s development and cybersecurity agenda.
She warned that growing vulnerabilities in digital transactions were worsening capital flight from the continent, stressing: “We should not joke with this; progress requires commitment from both government and private actors.”
Phillips said Africa had the capacity to strengthen its economic and security frameworks, but success would depend on consistency and serious implementation of agreed plans.

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